Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Kirkland Lake Gold Ltd. (KL)

$38.92

-0.09 (-%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 289.68 | 38.92 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 406.66747.49915.911,379.992,460.103,907.146,205.329,855.3015,652.2124,858.85
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 84.21329.42529.52968.021,156.231,873.392,975.314,725.407,504.8811,919.26
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 84.21180.77395.81799.10773.051,264.822,008.793,190.365,066.938,047.31
EBIT (%)
Depreciation -148.66133.72168.92383.18608.57966.531,535.042,437.953,871.96
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Total Cash 234.90231.60332.23707.21847.641,646.632,615.184,153.436,596.4810,476.54
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 7.4815.6720.1530.1523.1672.38114.95182.56289.94460.49
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 40.9341.4340.0947.69149.20230.55366.16581.54923.611,466.87
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 57.90106.42130.40196.47350.25556.26883.461,403.112,228.413,539.17
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -73.69-131.84-275.20-456.42-582.73-957.78-1,521.14-2,415.88-3,836.91-6,093.78
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 38.92
Beta 0.528
Diluted Shares Outstanding 271.36
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 31.66
After-tax Cost of Debt 9.20%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.023
Total Debt 26.17
Total Equity 10,561.14
Total Capital 10,587.31
Debt Weighting 0.25
Equity Weighting 99.75
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 406.66747.49915.911,379.992,460.103,907.146,205.329,855.3015,652.2124,858.85
EBITDA 84.21329.42529.52968.021,156.231,873.392,975.314,725.407,504.8811,919.26
EBIT 84.21180.77395.81799.10773.051,264.822,008.793,190.365,066.938,047.31
Tax Rate 42.53%32.46%30.53%29.83%31.66%33.40%33.40%33.40%33.40%33.40%
EBIAT 48.40122.08274.98560.73528.27842.341,337.812,124.713,374.475,359.33
Depreciation -148.66133.72168.92383.18608.57966.531,535.042,437.953,871.96
Accounts Receivable --8.19-4.48-106.99-49.21-42.57-67.61-107.38-170.54
Inventories --0.511.34-7.60-101.52-81.35-135.61-215.38-342.06-543.27
Accounts Payable -48.5223.9866.07153.78206.02327.19519.65825.311,310.76
Capital Expenditure -73.69-131.84-275.20-456.42-582.73-957.78-1,521.14-2,415.88-3,836.91-6,093.78
UFCF -25.29178.73154.33321.70387.97568.58932.201,480.532,351.373,734.45
WACC
PV UFCF 536.25829.191,242.021,860.402,786.65
SUM PV UFCF 7,254.51

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.03
Free cash flow (t + 1) 3,809.14
Terminal Value 94,519.65
Present Value of Terminal Value 70,530.72

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 77,785.23
Net Debt -821.47
Equity Value 78,606.70
Shares Outstanding 271.36
Equity Value Per Share 289.68