Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Kinder Morgan, Inc. (KMI)

$17.03

-0.29 (-1.67%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 10.20 | 17.03 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Revenue	14,144	13,209	11,700	16,610	17,934.99	19,365.68	20,910.49	22,578.54	24,379.64	26,324.42	28,424.34
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	6,410	7,328	1,169	2,796	5,722.23	6,178.70	6,671.58	7,203.77	7,778.42	8,398.91	9,068.90
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	6,410	7,328	1,169	2,796	5,722.23	3,917.70	4,230.21	4,567.66	4,932.03	5,325.46	5,750.27
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	-	-	-	-	-	2,261	2,441.36	2,636.11	2,846.40	3,073.45	3,318.63
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Total Cash	3,280	1,110	1,184	1,140	2,178.04	2,351.79	2,539.39	2,741.96	2,960.69	3,196.86	3,451.88
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	1,521	1,370	1,293	1,611	1,877.60	2,027.38	2,189.10	2,363.73	2,552.28	2,755.88	2,975.72
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	385	371	348	562	533.05	575.57	621.49	671.07	724.60	782.40	844.81
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	1,337	914	837	1,259	1,394.71	1,505.97	1,626.10	1,755.81	1,895.88	2,047.11	2,210.41
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-2,924	-2,270	-1,707	-1,281	-2,697.44	-2,912.61	-3,144.95	-3,395.83	-3,666.72	-3,959.21	-4,275.04
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 17.03
Beta	0.919
Diluted Shares Outstanding	2,248
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	24.80
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.76%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	8.085
Total Debt	31,673
Total Equity	38,283.44
Total Capital	69,956.44
Debt Weighting	45.28
Equity Weighting	54.72
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Revenue	14,144	13,209	11,700	16,610	17,934.99	19,365.68	20,910.49	22,578.54	24,379.64	26,324.42	28,424.34
EBITDA	6,410	7,328	1,169	2,796	5,722.23	6,178.70	6,671.58	7,203.77	7,778.42	8,398.91	9,068.90
EBIT	6,410	7,328	1,169	2,796	5,722.23	3,917.70	4,230.21	4,567.66	4,932.03	5,325.46	5,750.27
Tax Rate	35.79%	30.81%	82.00%	19.60%	38.60%	24.80%	38.60%	38.60%	38.60%	38.60%	38.60%
EBIAT	4,115.60	5,070.56	210.46	2,247.89	3,513.41	2,945.97	2,597.32	2,804.51	3,028.23	3,269.79	3,530.62
Depreciation	-	-	-	-	-	2,261	2,441.36	2,636.11	2,846.40	3,073.45	3,318.63
Accounts Receivable	-	151	77	-318	-266.60	-149.78	-161.73	-174.63	-188.56	-203.60	-219.84
Inventories	-	14	23	-214	28.95	-42.52	-45.91	-49.58	-53.53	-57.80	-62.41
Accounts Payable	-	-423	-77	422	135.71	111.26	120.13	129.72	140.06	151.24	163.30
Capital Expenditure	-2,924	-2,270	-1,707	-1,281	-2,697.44	-148	-3,144.95	-3,395.83	-3,666.72	-3,959.21	-4,275.04
UFCF	1,191.60	2,542.56	-1,473.54	856.89	714.03	2,213.31	1,806.22	1,950.30	2,105.88	2,273.87	2,455.26
WACC
PV UFCF					714.03	2,085.47	1,603.59	1,631.50	1,659.90	1,688.79	1,718.18
SUM PV UFCF											8,810.87

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	6.13
Free cash flow (t + 1)	2,504.36
Terminal Value	60,638.29
Present Value of Terminal Value	45,035.62

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	53,846.49
Net Debt	30,928
Equity Value	22,918.49
Shares Outstanding	2,248
Equity Value Per Share	10.20