Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Kinder Morgan, Inc. (KMI)
$17.03
-0.29 (-1.67%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 14,144 | 13,209 | 11,700 | 16,610 | 17,934.99 | 19,365.68 | 20,910.49 | 22,578.54 | 24,379.64 | 26,324.42 | 28,424.34 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | |||||||||||
EBITDA | 6,410 | 7,328 | 1,169 | 2,796 | 5,722.23 | 6,178.70 | 6,671.58 | 7,203.77 | 7,778.42 | 8,398.91 | 9,068.90 |
EBITDA (%) | |||||||||||
EBIT | 6,410 | 7,328 | 1,169 | 2,796 | 5,722.23 | 3,917.70 | 4,230.21 | 4,567.66 | 4,932.03 | 5,325.46 | 5,750.27 |
EBIT (%) | |||||||||||
Depreciation | - | - | - | - | - | 2,261 | 2,441.36 | 2,636.11 | 2,846.40 | 3,073.45 | 3,318.63 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Total Cash | 3,280 | 1,110 | 1,184 | 1,140 | 2,178.04 | 2,351.79 | 2,539.39 | 2,741.96 | 2,960.69 | 3,196.86 | 3,451.88 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | |||||||||||
Account Receivables | 1,521 | 1,370 | 1,293 | 1,611 | 1,877.60 | 2,027.38 | 2,189.10 | 2,363.73 | 2,552.28 | 2,755.88 | 2,975.72 |
Account Receivables (%) | |||||||||||
Inventories | 385 | 371 | 348 | 562 | 533.05 | 575.57 | 621.49 | 671.07 | 724.60 | 782.40 | 844.81 |
Inventories (%) | |||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 1,337 | 914 | 837 | 1,259 | 1,394.71 | 1,505.97 | 1,626.10 | 1,755.81 | 1,895.88 | 2,047.11 | 2,210.41 |
Accounts Payable (%) | |||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -2,924 | -2,270 | -1,707 | -1,281 | -2,697.44 | -2,912.61 | -3,144.95 | -3,395.83 | -3,666.72 | -3,959.21 | -4,275.04 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 17.03 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.919 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 2,248 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 24.80 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.76% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 8.085 |
Total Debt | 31,673 |
Total Equity | 38,283.44 |
Total Capital | 69,956.44 |
Debt Weighting | 45.28 |
Equity Weighting | 54.72 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 14,144 | 13,209 | 11,700 | 16,610 | 17,934.99 | 19,365.68 | 20,910.49 | 22,578.54 | 24,379.64 | 26,324.42 | 28,424.34 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 6,410 | 7,328 | 1,169 | 2,796 | 5,722.23 | 6,178.70 | 6,671.58 | 7,203.77 | 7,778.42 | 8,398.91 | 9,068.90 |
EBIT | 6,410 | 7,328 | 1,169 | 2,796 | 5,722.23 | 3,917.70 | 4,230.21 | 4,567.66 | 4,932.03 | 5,325.46 | 5,750.27 |
Tax Rate | 35.79% | 30.81% | 82.00% | 19.60% | 38.60% | 24.80% | 38.60% | 38.60% | 38.60% | 38.60% | 38.60% |
EBIAT | 4,115.60 | 5,070.56 | 210.46 | 2,247.89 | 3,513.41 | 2,945.97 | 2,597.32 | 2,804.51 | 3,028.23 | 3,269.79 | 3,530.62 |
Depreciation | - | - | - | - | - | 2,261 | 2,441.36 | 2,636.11 | 2,846.40 | 3,073.45 | 3,318.63 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 151 | 77 | -318 | -266.60 | -149.78 | -161.73 | -174.63 | -188.56 | -203.60 | -219.84 |
Inventories | - | 14 | 23 | -214 | 28.95 | -42.52 | -45.91 | -49.58 | -53.53 | -57.80 | -62.41 |
Accounts Payable | - | -423 | -77 | 422 | 135.71 | 111.26 | 120.13 | 129.72 | 140.06 | 151.24 | 163.30 |
Capital Expenditure | -2,924 | -2,270 | -1,707 | -1,281 | -2,697.44 | -148 | -3,144.95 | -3,395.83 | -3,666.72 | -3,959.21 | -4,275.04 |
UFCF | 1,191.60 | 2,542.56 | -1,473.54 | 856.89 | 714.03 | 2,213.31 | 1,806.22 | 1,950.30 | 2,105.88 | 2,273.87 | 2,455.26 |
WACC | |||||||||||
PV UFCF | 714.03 | 2,085.47 | 1,603.59 | 1,631.50 | 1,659.90 | 1,688.79 | 1,718.18 | ||||
SUM PV UFCF | 8,810.87 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 6.13 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 2,504.36 |
Terminal Value | 60,638.29 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 45,035.62 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 53,846.49 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 30,928 |
Equity Value | 22,918.49 |
Shares Outstanding | 2,248 |
Equity Value Per Share | 10.20 |