Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Kinder Morgan, Inc. (KMI)

$16.98

+0.22 (+1.31%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -1.61 | 16.98 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	13,705	14,144	13,209	11,700	16,610	17,736.76	18,939.95	20,224.76	21,596.73	23,061.76
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	3,953	4,113	4,917	2,764	4,288	5,129.02	5,476.95	5,848.49	6,245.22	6,668.88
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	3,953	4,113	4,917	600	2,153	2,348.83	2,508.17	2,678.31	2,860	3,054.01
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	-	-	-	2,164	2,135	2,780.19	2,968.78	3,170.17	3,385.23	3,614.87
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	264	3,280	1,110	1,184	1,140	1,791.51	1,913.04	2,042.81	2,181.39	2,329.36
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	1,613	1,521	1,370	1,293	1,824.86	1,948.65	2,080.84	2,222	2,372.73	2,533.69
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	424	385	371	348	481.64	514.31	549.20	586.46	626.24	668.72
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	1,340	1,337	914	837	1,382.93	1,476.74	1,576.92	1,683.89	1,798.12	1,920.10
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-3,188	-2,924	-2,270	-1,707	-1,281	-2,959.27	-3,160.01	-3,374.37	-3,603.28	-3,847.71
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 16.98
Beta	0.894
Diluted Shares Outstanding	2,267
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	19.60
After-tax Cost of Debt	4.02%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	7.110
Total Debt	33,320
Total Equity	38,493.66
Total Capital	71,813.66
Debt Weighting	46.40
Equity Weighting	53.60
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	13,705	14,144	13,209	11,700	16,610	17,736.76	18,939.95	20,224.76	21,596.73	23,061.76
EBITDA	3,953	4,113	4,917	2,764	4,288	5,129.02	5,476.95	5,848.49	6,245.22	6,668.88
EBIT	3,953	4,113	4,917	600	2,153	2,348.83	2,508.17	2,678.31	2,860	3,054.01
Tax Rate	91.53%	35.79%	30.81%	82.00%	19.60%	51.95%	51.95%	51.95%	51.95%	51.95%
EBIAT	334.75	2,640.79	3,402.28	108.02	1,730.94	1,128.70	1,205.27	1,287.03	1,374.33	1,467.56
Depreciation	-	-	-	2,164	2,135	2,780.19	2,968.78	3,170.17	3,385.23	3,614.87
Accounts Receivable	-	92	151	77	-531.86	-123.79	-132.19	-141.16	-150.73	-160.96
Inventories	-	39	14	23	-133.64	-32.67	-34.89	-37.26	-39.78	-42.48
Accounts Payable	-	-3	-423	-77	545.93	93.81	100.18	106.97	114.23	121.98
Capital Expenditure	-3,188	-2,924	-2,270	-1,707	-1,281	-2,959.27	-3,160.01	-3,374.37	-3,603.28	-3,847.71
UFCF	-2,853.25	-155.21	874.28	588.02	2,465.37	886.97	947.13	1,011.38	1,079.99	1,153.26
WACC
PV UFCF						839.29	848.06	856.92	865.86	874.91
SUM PV UFCF										4,285.04

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	5.68
Free cash flow (t + 1)	1,176.32
Terminal Value	31,965.24
Present Value of Terminal Value	24,250.12

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	28,535.16
Net Debt	32,180
Equity Value	-3,644.84
Shares Outstanding	2,267
Equity Value Per Share	-1.61