Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Kinder Morgan, Inc. (KMI)

$17.03

-0.29 (-1.67%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 10.20 | 17.03 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 14,14413,20911,70016,61017,934.9919,365.6820,910.4922,578.5424,379.6426,324.4228,424.34
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 6,4107,3281,1692,7965,722.236,178.706,671.587,203.777,778.428,398.919,068.90
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 6,4107,3281,1692,7965,722.233,917.704,230.214,567.664,932.035,325.465,750.27
EBIT (%)
Depreciation -----2,2612,441.362,636.112,846.403,073.453,318.63
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 3,2801,1101,1841,1402,178.042,351.792,539.392,741.962,960.693,196.863,451.88
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,5211,3701,2931,6111,877.602,027.382,189.102,363.732,552.282,755.882,975.72
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 385371348562533.05575.57621.49671.07724.60782.40844.81
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1,3379148371,2591,394.711,505.971,626.101,755.811,895.882,047.112,210.41
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2,924-2,270-1,707-1,281-2,697.44-2,912.61-3,144.95-3,395.83-3,666.72-3,959.21-4,275.04
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 17.03
Beta 0.919
Diluted Shares Outstanding 2,248
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 24.80
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.76%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.085
Total Debt 31,673
Total Equity 38,283.44
Total Capital 69,956.44
Debt Weighting 45.28
Equity Weighting 54.72
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 14,14413,20911,70016,61017,934.9919,365.6820,910.4922,578.5424,379.6426,324.4228,424.34
EBITDA 6,4107,3281,1692,7965,722.236,178.706,671.587,203.777,778.428,398.919,068.90
EBIT 6,4107,3281,1692,7965,722.233,917.704,230.214,567.664,932.035,325.465,750.27
Tax Rate 35.79%30.81%82.00%19.60%38.60%24.80%38.60%38.60%38.60%38.60%38.60%
EBIAT 4,115.605,070.56210.462,247.893,513.412,945.972,597.322,804.513,028.233,269.793,530.62
Depreciation -----2,2612,441.362,636.112,846.403,073.453,318.63
Accounts Receivable -15177-318-266.60-149.78-161.73-174.63-188.56-203.60-219.84
Inventories -1423-21428.95-42.52-45.91-49.58-53.53-57.80-62.41
Accounts Payable --423-77422135.71111.26120.13129.72140.06151.24163.30
Capital Expenditure -2,924-2,270-1,707-1,281-2,697.44-148-3,144.95-3,395.83-3,666.72-3,959.21-4,275.04
UFCF 1,191.602,542.56-1,473.54856.89714.032,213.311,806.221,950.302,105.882,273.872,455.26
WACC
PV UFCF 714.032,085.471,603.591,631.501,659.901,688.791,718.18
SUM PV UFCF 8,810.87

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.13
Free cash flow (t + 1) 2,504.36
Terminal Value 60,638.29
Present Value of Terminal Value 45,035.62

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 53,846.49
Net Debt 30,928
Equity Value 22,918.49
Shares Outstanding 2,248
Equity Value Per Share 10.20