Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Kinder Morgan, Inc. (KMI)

$16.98

+0.22 (+1.31%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -1.61 | 16.98 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 13,70514,14413,20911,70016,61017,736.7618,939.9520,224.7621,596.7323,061.76
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 3,9534,1134,9172,7644,2885,129.025,476.955,848.496,245.226,668.88
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 3,9534,1134,9176002,1532,348.832,508.172,678.312,8603,054.01
EBIT (%)
Depreciation ---2,1642,1352,780.192,968.783,170.173,385.233,614.87
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 2643,2801,1101,1841,1401,791.511,913.042,042.812,181.392,329.36
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,6131,5211,3701,2931,824.861,948.652,080.842,2222,372.732,533.69
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 424385371348481.64514.31549.20586.46626.24668.72
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1,3401,3379148371,382.931,476.741,576.921,683.891,798.121,920.10
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -3,188-2,924-2,270-1,707-1,281-2,959.27-3,160.01-3,374.37-3,603.28-3,847.71
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 16.98
Beta 0.894
Diluted Shares Outstanding 2,267
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 19.60
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.02%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.110
Total Debt 33,320
Total Equity 38,493.66
Total Capital 71,813.66
Debt Weighting 46.40
Equity Weighting 53.60
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 13,70514,14413,20911,70016,61017,736.7618,939.9520,224.7621,596.7323,061.76
EBITDA 3,9534,1134,9172,7644,2885,129.025,476.955,848.496,245.226,668.88
EBIT 3,9534,1134,9176002,1532,348.832,508.172,678.312,8603,054.01
Tax Rate 91.53%35.79%30.81%82.00%19.60%51.95%51.95%51.95%51.95%51.95%
EBIAT 334.752,640.793,402.28108.021,730.941,128.701,205.271,287.031,374.331,467.56
Depreciation ---2,1642,1352,780.192,968.783,170.173,385.233,614.87
Accounts Receivable -9215177-531.86-123.79-132.19-141.16-150.73-160.96
Inventories -391423-133.64-32.67-34.89-37.26-39.78-42.48
Accounts Payable --3-423-77545.9393.81100.18106.97114.23121.98
Capital Expenditure -3,188-2,924-2,270-1,707-1,281-2,959.27-3,160.01-3,374.37-3,603.28-3,847.71
UFCF -2,853.25-155.21874.28588.022,465.37886.97947.131,011.381,079.991,153.26
WACC
PV UFCF 839.29848.06856.92865.86874.91
SUM PV UFCF 4,285.04

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.68
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,176.32
Terminal Value 31,965.24
Present Value of Terminal Value 24,250.12

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 28,535.16
Net Debt 32,180
Equity Value -3,644.84
Shares Outstanding 2,267
Equity Value Per Share -1.61