Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Kinder Morgan, Inc. (KMI)
$16.98
+0.22 (+1.31%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 13,705 | 14,144 | 13,209 | 11,700 | 16,610 | 17,736.76 | 18,939.95 | 20,224.76 | 21,596.73 | 23,061.76 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 3,953 | 4,113 | 4,917 | 2,764 | 4,288 | 5,129.02 | 5,476.95 | 5,848.49 | 6,245.22 | 6,668.88 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 3,953 | 4,113 | 4,917 | 600 | 2,153 | 2,348.83 | 2,508.17 | 2,678.31 | 2,860 | 3,054.01 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | - | - | - | 2,164 | 2,135 | 2,780.19 | 2,968.78 | 3,170.17 | 3,385.23 | 3,614.87 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Total Cash | 264 | 3,280 | 1,110 | 1,184 | 1,140 | 1,791.51 | 1,913.04 | 2,042.81 | 2,181.39 | 2,329.36 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 1,613 | 1,521 | 1,370 | 1,293 | 1,824.86 | 1,948.65 | 2,080.84 | 2,222 | 2,372.73 | 2,533.69 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 424 | 385 | 371 | 348 | 481.64 | 514.31 | 549.20 | 586.46 | 626.24 | 668.72 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 1,340 | 1,337 | 914 | 837 | 1,382.93 | 1,476.74 | 1,576.92 | 1,683.89 | 1,798.12 | 1,920.10 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -3,188 | -2,924 | -2,270 | -1,707 | -1,281 | -2,959.27 | -3,160.01 | -3,374.37 | -3,603.28 | -3,847.71 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 16.98 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.894 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 2,267 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 19.60 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.02% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 7.110 |
Total Debt | 33,320 |
Total Equity | 38,493.66 |
Total Capital | 71,813.66 |
Debt Weighting | 46.40 |
Equity Weighting | 53.60 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 13,705 | 14,144 | 13,209 | 11,700 | 16,610 | 17,736.76 | 18,939.95 | 20,224.76 | 21,596.73 | 23,061.76 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 3,953 | 4,113 | 4,917 | 2,764 | 4,288 | 5,129.02 | 5,476.95 | 5,848.49 | 6,245.22 | 6,668.88 |
EBIT | 3,953 | 4,113 | 4,917 | 600 | 2,153 | 2,348.83 | 2,508.17 | 2,678.31 | 2,860 | 3,054.01 |
Tax Rate | 91.53% | 35.79% | 30.81% | 82.00% | 19.60% | 51.95% | 51.95% | 51.95% | 51.95% | 51.95% |
EBIAT | 334.75 | 2,640.79 | 3,402.28 | 108.02 | 1,730.94 | 1,128.70 | 1,205.27 | 1,287.03 | 1,374.33 | 1,467.56 |
Depreciation | - | - | - | 2,164 | 2,135 | 2,780.19 | 2,968.78 | 3,170.17 | 3,385.23 | 3,614.87 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 92 | 151 | 77 | -531.86 | -123.79 | -132.19 | -141.16 | -150.73 | -160.96 |
Inventories | - | 39 | 14 | 23 | -133.64 | -32.67 | -34.89 | -37.26 | -39.78 | -42.48 |
Accounts Payable | - | -3 | -423 | -77 | 545.93 | 93.81 | 100.18 | 106.97 | 114.23 | 121.98 |
Capital Expenditure | -3,188 | -2,924 | -2,270 | -1,707 | -1,281 | -2,959.27 | -3,160.01 | -3,374.37 | -3,603.28 | -3,847.71 |
UFCF | -2,853.25 | -155.21 | 874.28 | 588.02 | 2,465.37 | 886.97 | 947.13 | 1,011.38 | 1,079.99 | 1,153.26 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 839.29 | 848.06 | 856.92 | 865.86 | 874.91 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 4,285.04 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 5.68 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 1,176.32 |
Terminal Value | 31,965.24 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 24,250.12 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 28,535.16 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 32,180 |
Equity Value | -3,644.84 |
Shares Outstanding | 2,267 |
Equity Value Per Share | -1.61 |