Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Knight-Swift Transportation Holding... (KNX)

$55.41

-0.15 (-0.27%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 70.88 | 55.41 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	5,344.07	4,843.95	4,673.86	5,998.02	7,428.58	8,158.66	8,960.50	9,841.13	10,808.32	11,870.56
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	1,010.91	905.39	1,083.66	1,573.31	1,731.34	1,800.29	1,977.23	2,171.55	2,384.97	2,619.36
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	580.82	442.44	576.99	995.42	1,071.52	1,033.98	1,135.60	1,247.21	1,369.79	1,504.41
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	430.09	462.96	506.67	577.89	659.82	766.31	841.62	924.34	1,015.18	1,114.95
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	82.49	159.72	156.70	266.87	203.95	251.09	275.77	302.87	332.64	365.33
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	623.77	548.27	595.94	935.18	917.13	1,039.07	1,141.19	1,253.34	1,376.52	1,511.81
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	117.88	99.19	101	224.84	220.85	214.35	235.41	258.55	283.96	311.87
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-756	-829.98	-521.07	-74.80	-800.56	-888.53	-975.85	-1,071.76	-1,177.09	-1,292.78
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 55.41
Beta	1.174
Diluted Shares Outstanding	163.21
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	24.42
After-tax Cost of Debt	1.84%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	8.921
Total Debt	2,089.03
Total Equity	9,043.52
Total Capital	11,132.55
Debt Weighting	18.77
Equity Weighting	81.23
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	5,344.07	4,843.95	4,673.86	5,998.02	7,428.58	8,158.66	8,960.50	9,841.13	10,808.32	11,870.56
EBITDA	1,010.91	905.39	1,083.66	1,573.31	1,731.34	1,800.29	1,977.23	2,171.55	2,384.97	2,619.36
EBIT	580.82	442.44	576.99	995.42	1,071.52	1,033.98	1,135.60	1,247.21	1,369.79	1,504.41
Tax Rate	24.05%	25.31%	26.83%	23.73%	24.42%	24.87%	24.87%	24.87%	24.87%	24.87%
EBIAT	441.13	330.46	422.20	759.24	809.88	776.87	853.23	937.08	1,029.18	1,130.32
Depreciation	430.09	462.96	506.67	577.89	659.82	766.31	841.62	924.34	1,015.18	1,114.95
Accounts Receivable	-	75.50	-47.67	-339.24	18.05	-121.94	-102.12	-112.16	-123.18	-135.28
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Accounts Payable	-	-18.69	1.81	123.84	-4	-6.50	21.07	23.14	25.41	27.91
Capital Expenditure	-756	-829.98	-521.07	-74.80	-800.56	-888.53	-975.85	-1,071.76	-1,177.09	-1,292.78
UFCF	115.22	20.26	361.94	1,046.94	683.20	526.21	637.94	700.64	769.50	845.12
WACC
PV UFCF						489.09	551.11	562.57	574.27	586.22
SUM PV UFCF										2,763.26

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	7.59
Free cash flow (t + 1)	862.02
Terminal Value	15,420.81
Present Value of Terminal Value	10,696.65

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	13,459.91
Net Debt	1,892.26
Equity Value	11,567.65
Shares Outstanding	163.21
Equity Value Per Share	70.88