Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Korian (KORI.PA)
8.905 €
+0.07 (+0.85%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 3,135.17 | 3,336.48 | 3,612.50 | 3,874.01 | 4,310.85 | 4,668.75 | 5,056.36 | 5,476.15 | 5,930.79 | 6,423.18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 434.31 | 418.14 | 733.74 | 776.25 | 922.73 | 822.99 | 891.32 | 965.32 | 1,045.46 | 1,132.26 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 258.21 | 275.80 | 273.41 | 251.53 | 299.90 | 350.35 | 379.43 | 410.93 | 445.05 | 482 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 176.10 | 142.34 | 460.33 | 524.72 | 622.82 | 472.65 | 511.89 | 554.39 | 600.41 | 650.26 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 512.04 | 550.39 | 344.81 | 1,159.19 | 1,216.26 | 938.51 | 1,016.42 | 1,100.81 | 1,192.20 | 1,291.18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 10.40 | 17.11 | 33.91 | 36.19 | 28.24 | 31.49 | 34.10 | 36.94 | 40 | 43.32 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 267.33 | 315.11 | 369.94 | 453.62 | 499.72 | 481.01 | 520.94 | 564.19 | 611.03 | 661.76 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -188.68 | -264.60 | -310.60 | -520.10 | -538.62 | -452.56 | -490.13 | -530.82 | -574.89 | -622.62 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 8.905 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.046 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 92.13 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 28.26 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.67% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.611 |
| Total Debt | 8,227.57 |
| Total Equity | 820.39 |
| Total Capital | 9,047.96 |
| Debt Weighting | 90.93 |
| Equity Weighting | 9.07 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 3,135.17 | 3,336.48 | 3,612.50 | 3,874.01 | 4,310.85 | 4,668.75 | 5,056.36 | 5,476.15 | 5,930.79 | 6,423.18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 434.31 | 418.14 | 733.74 | 776.25 | 922.73 | 822.99 | 891.32 | 965.32 | 1,045.46 | 1,132.26 |
| EBIT | 258.21 | 275.80 | 273.41 | 251.53 | 299.90 | 350.35 | 379.43 | 410.93 | 445.05 | 482 |
| Tax Rate | -0.34% | 30.68% | 34.66% | 34.39% | 28.26% | 25.53% | 25.53% | 25.53% | 25.53% | 25.53% |
| EBIAT | 259.09 | 191.18 | 178.65 | 165.02 | 215.16 | 260.90 | 282.56 | 306.02 | 331.43 | 358.95 |
| Depreciation | 176.10 | 142.34 | 460.33 | 524.72 | 622.82 | 472.65 | 511.89 | 554.39 | 600.41 | 650.26 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories | - | -6.71 | -16.80 | -2.28 | 7.95 | -3.25 | -2.61 | -2.83 | -3.07 | -3.32 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 47.78 | 54.83 | 83.68 | 46.10 | -18.71 | 39.93 | 43.25 | 46.84 | 50.73 |
| Capital Expenditure | -188.68 | -264.60 | -310.61 | -520.10 | -538.62 | -452.56 | -490.13 | -530.82 | -574.89 | -622.62 |
| UFCF | 246.52 | 109.99 | 366.41 | 251.04 | 353.41 | 259.03 | 341.64 | 370.01 | 400.73 | 434 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 253.21 | 326.45 | 345.61 | 365.89 | 387.35 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 1,678.51 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 2.30 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 442.68 |
| Terminal Value | 147,558.76 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 131,700.32 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 133,378.83 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 7,013 |
| Equity Value | 126,365.82 |
| Shares Outstanding | 92.13 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 1,371.65 |