Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Korian (KORI.PA)

6.89 €

+0.03 (+0.44%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -646.09 | 6.89 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 3,336.483,612.503,874.014,310.854,438.304,768.335,122.915,503.855,913.126,352.82
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 418.14733.74776.25922.73847.28890.50956.711,027.861,104.291,186.40
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 275.80273.41251.53299.90230.12328.72353.17379.43407.64437.96
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 142.34460.33524.72622.82617.16561.77603.55648.43696.64748.45
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 550.39344.811,159.191,216.26734.35960.561,031.991,108.731,191.171,279.75
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 236284315365349.88375.90403.85433.88466.15500.81
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 17.1133.9136.1928.2428.6235.1537.7640.5743.5946.83
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 315.11369.94453.62499.72570.72532.58572.18614.73660.44709.55
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -264.60-310.60-520.10-538.62-622.20-538.51-578.55-621.58-667.80-717.46
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 6.89
Beta 1.036
Diluted Shares Outstanding 92.13
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 61.92
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.90%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.386
Total Debt 8,270.55
Total Equity 634.76
Total Capital 8,905.30
Debt Weighting 92.87
Equity Weighting 7.13
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 3,336.483,612.503,874.014,310.854,438.304,768.335,122.915,503.855,913.126,352.82
EBITDA 418.14733.74776.25922.73847.28890.50956.711,027.861,104.291,186.40
EBIT 275.80273.41251.53299.90230.12328.72353.17379.43407.64437.96
Tax Rate 30.68%34.66%34.39%28.26%61.92%37.98%37.98%37.98%37.98%37.98%
EBIAT 191.18178.65165.02215.1687.62203.86219.02235.31252.81271.61
Depreciation 142.34460.33524.72622.82617.16561.77603.55648.43696.64748.45
Accounts Receivable --48-31-5015.12-26.02-27.95-30.03-32.26-34.66
Inventories --16.80-2.287.95-0.39-6.52-2.61-2.81-3.02-3.24
Accounts Payable -54.8383.6846.1071-38.1439.6042.5545.7149.11
Capital Expenditure -264.60-310.61-520.10-538.62-622.20-538.51-578.55-621.58-667.80-717.46
UFCF 68.92318.41220.04303.41168.31156.45253.05271.87292.09313.81
WACC
PV UFCF 154.22245.92260.46275.85292.16
SUM PV UFCF 1,228.61

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 1.44
Free cash flow (t + 1) 320.08
Terminal Value -57,157.64
Present Value of Terminal Value -53,214.27

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -51,985.66
Net Debt 7,536.84
Equity Value -59,522.50
Shares Outstanding 92.13
Equity Value Per Share -646.09