Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Kosmos Energy Ltd. (KOS)

$6.905

+0.10 (+1.62%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -2.64 | 6.905 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 1,499.42804.031,332.012,245.352,902.933,753.084,852.216,273.238,110.4110,485.63
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 790.41267.18829.831,624.371,600.882,069.712,675.843,459.494,472.645,782.50
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 135.59-315.5256.261,115.721,152.22475.93615.31795.521,028.491,329.70
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 654.82582.71773.57508.66448.661,593.782,060.532,663.983,444.154,452.81
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 224.50149.03131.62183.40374.17483.74625.41808.571,045.371,351.52
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 174.2978.81177.53119.73290.92376.12486.27628.68812.791,050.83
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 114.41128.97165.25133.52304.98394.29509.76659.05852.061,101.60
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 149.48221.43184.40212.28441.30570.54737.62953.641,232.931,594.01
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -352.01-379.59-938-809.38-1,285.66-1,662.18-2,148.97-2,778.32-3,591.98-4,643.93
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 6.905
Beta 2.635
Diluted Shares Outstanding 474.86
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 32.79
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.57%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 16.730
Total Debt 2,225.91
Total Equity 3,278.89
Total Capital 5,504.80
Debt Weighting 40.44
Equity Weighting 59.56
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 1,499.42804.031,332.012,245.352,902.933,753.084,852.216,273.238,110.4110,485.63
EBITDA 790.41267.18829.831,624.371,600.882,069.712,675.843,459.494,472.645,782.50
EBIT 135.59-315.5256.261,115.721,152.22475.93615.31795.521,028.491,329.70
Tax Rate 322.07%1.25%-79.43%32.79%69.17%69.17%69.17%69.17%69.17%69.17%
EBIAT -301.11-311.58100.95749.90355.23146.73189.71245.26317.09409.95
Depreciation 654.82582.71773.57508.66448.661,593.782,060.532,663.983,444.154,452.81
Accounts Receivable -95.48-98.7157.79-171.19-85.20-110.15-142.41-184.12-238.04
Inventories --14.56-36.2831.73-171.46-89.32-115.47-149.29-193.01-249.54
Accounts Payable -71.95-37.0327.87229.02129.24167.09216.02279.28361.08
Capital Expenditure -352.01-379.59-938-809.38-1,285.66-1,662.18-2,148.97-2,778.32-3,591.98-4,643.93
UFCF 1.7044.40-235.50566.58-595.3933.0542.7355.2471.4292.33
WACC
PV UFCF -595.3929.6634.4239.9546.3653.79
SUM PV UFCF 204.19

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 11.41
Free cash flow (t + 1) 94.18
Terminal Value 1,000.86
Present Value of Terminal Value 583.11

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 787.30
Net Debt 2,042.51
Equity Value -1,255.21
Shares Outstanding 474.86
Equity Value Per Share -2.64