Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Kosmos Energy Ltd. (KOS)
$6.905
+0.10 (+1.62%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 1,499.42 | 804.03 | 1,332.01 | 2,245.35 | 2,902.93 | 3,753.08 | 4,852.21 | 6,273.23 | 8,110.41 | 10,485.63 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 790.41 | 267.18 | 829.83 | 1,624.37 | 1,600.88 | 2,069.71 | 2,675.84 | 3,459.49 | 4,472.64 | 5,782.50 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 135.59 | -315.52 | 56.26 | 1,115.72 | 1,152.22 | 475.93 | 615.31 | 795.52 | 1,028.49 | 1,329.70 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 654.82 | 582.71 | 773.57 | 508.66 | 448.66 | 1,593.78 | 2,060.53 | 2,663.98 | 3,444.15 | 4,452.81 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Total Cash | 224.50 | 149.03 | 131.62 | 183.40 | 374.17 | 483.74 | 625.41 | 808.57 | 1,045.37 | 1,351.52 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 174.29 | 78.81 | 177.53 | 119.73 | 290.92 | 376.12 | 486.27 | 628.68 | 812.79 | 1,050.83 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 114.41 | 128.97 | 165.25 | 133.52 | 304.98 | 394.29 | 509.76 | 659.05 | 852.06 | 1,101.60 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 149.48 | 221.43 | 184.40 | 212.28 | 441.30 | 570.54 | 737.62 | 953.64 | 1,232.93 | 1,594.01 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -352.01 | -379.59 | -938 | -809.38 | -1,285.66 | -1,662.18 | -2,148.97 | -2,778.32 | -3,591.98 | -4,643.93 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 6.905 |
---|---|
Beta | 2.635 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 474.86 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 32.79 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.57% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 16.730 |
Total Debt | 2,225.91 |
Total Equity | 3,278.89 |
Total Capital | 5,504.80 |
Debt Weighting | 40.44 |
Equity Weighting | 59.56 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 1,499.42 | 804.03 | 1,332.01 | 2,245.35 | 2,902.93 | 3,753.08 | 4,852.21 | 6,273.23 | 8,110.41 | 10,485.63 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 790.41 | 267.18 | 829.83 | 1,624.37 | 1,600.88 | 2,069.71 | 2,675.84 | 3,459.49 | 4,472.64 | 5,782.50 |
EBIT | 135.59 | -315.52 | 56.26 | 1,115.72 | 1,152.22 | 475.93 | 615.31 | 795.52 | 1,028.49 | 1,329.70 |
Tax Rate | 322.07% | 1.25% | -79.43% | 32.79% | 69.17% | 69.17% | 69.17% | 69.17% | 69.17% | 69.17% |
EBIAT | -301.11 | -311.58 | 100.95 | 749.90 | 355.23 | 146.73 | 189.71 | 245.26 | 317.09 | 409.95 |
Depreciation | 654.82 | 582.71 | 773.57 | 508.66 | 448.66 | 1,593.78 | 2,060.53 | 2,663.98 | 3,444.15 | 4,452.81 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 95.48 | -98.71 | 57.79 | -171.19 | -85.20 | -110.15 | -142.41 | -184.12 | -238.04 |
Inventories | - | -14.56 | -36.28 | 31.73 | -171.46 | -89.32 | -115.47 | -149.29 | -193.01 | -249.54 |
Accounts Payable | - | 71.95 | -37.03 | 27.87 | 229.02 | 129.24 | 167.09 | 216.02 | 279.28 | 361.08 |
Capital Expenditure | -352.01 | -379.59 | -938 | -809.38 | -1,285.66 | -1,662.18 | -2,148.97 | -2,778.32 | -3,591.98 | -4,643.93 |
UFCF | 1.70 | 44.40 | -235.50 | 566.58 | -595.39 | 33.05 | 42.73 | 55.24 | 71.42 | 92.33 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | -595.39 | 29.66 | 34.42 | 39.95 | 46.36 | 53.79 | ||||
SUM PV UFCF | 204.19 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 11.41 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 94.18 |
Terminal Value | 1,000.86 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 583.11 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 787.30 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 2,042.51 |
Equity Value | -1,255.21 |
Shares Outstanding | 474.86 |
Equity Value Per Share | -2.64 |