Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Kraton Corporation (KRA)

$46.49

+0.01 (+0.02%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 32.30 | 46.49 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,960.362,011.681,804.441,563.151,970.131,994.662,019.492,044.632,070.082,095.85
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 309.29305.77251.44-73.68378.04236.91239.86242.85245.87248.93
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 172.12164.36115.27-199.71251.5793.0894.2495.4196.6097.80
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 137.16141.41136.17126.02126.47143.83145.62147.44149.27151.13
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 89.0585.8935.0385.90130.5291.2592.3993.5494.7095.88
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 196.68198.05169.60180.26230.94209.56212.17214.81217.49220.19
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 393.44441.48364.67353.05477.34434.99440.41445.89451.44457.06
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 169.27182.15168.54176.23251.99203.83206.37208.94211.54214.17
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -122.59-111.10-112.67-85.97-101.21-114.32-115.75-117.19-118.65-120.12
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 46.49
Beta 2.089
Diluted Shares Outstanding 32.64
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 20.86
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.36%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 13.551
Total Debt 986.01
Total Equity 1,517.53
Total Capital 2,503.53
Debt Weighting 39.38
Equity Weighting 60.62
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,960.362,011.681,804.441,563.151,970.131,994.662,019.492,044.632,070.082,095.85
EBITDA 309.29305.77251.44-73.68378.04236.91239.86242.85245.87248.93
EBIT 172.12164.36115.27-199.71251.5793.0894.2495.4196.6097.80
Tax Rate -180.62%9.56%-16.59%11.08%20.86%-31.14%-31.14%-31.14%-31.14%-31.14%
EBIAT 483.01148.66134.40-177.57199.09122.07123.59125.13126.68128.26
Depreciation 137.16141.41136.17126.02126.47143.83145.62147.44149.27151.13
Accounts Receivable --1.3628.44-10.66-50.6821.38-2.61-2.64-2.67-2.71
Inventories --48.0476.8211.62-124.2942.35-5.42-5.48-5.55-5.62
Accounts Payable -12.89-13.617.6975.76-48.162.542.572.602.63
Capital Expenditure -122.59-111.10-112.67-85.97-101.21-114.32-115.75-117.19-118.65-120.12
UFCF 497.58142.45249.54-128.87125.15167.14147.98149.82151.68153.57
WACC
PV UFCF 152.58123.32113.98105.3597.38
SUM PV UFCF 592.62

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.54
Free cash flow (t + 1) 156.64
Terminal Value 2,077.50
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,317.28

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,909.90
Net Debt 855.49
Equity Value 1,054.41
Shares Outstanding 32.64
Equity Value Per Share 32.30