Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Kronos Worldwide, Inc. (KRO)
$8.73
+0.17 (+1.99%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,661.90 | 1,731.10 | 1,638.80 | 1,939.40 | 1,930.20 | 2,010.79 | 2,094.74 | 2,182.20 | 2,273.31 | 2,368.22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 310.50 | 135.30 | 102.60 | 169.40 | 140.30 | 196.11 | 204.29 | 212.82 | 221.71 | 230.96 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 260.80 | 80.40 | 38 | 111.50 | 84.10 | 131.76 | 137.26 | 142.99 | 148.96 | 155.18 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 49.70 | 54.90 | 64.60 | 57.90 | 56.20 | 64.35 | 67.04 | 69.83 | 72.75 | 75.79 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 373.30 | 390.80 | 355.30 | 406 | 327.80 | 420.80 | 438.37 | 456.67 | 475.73 | 495.60 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 312.50 | 309.40 | 323 | 379.10 | 255.10 | 358.52 | 373.49 | 389.09 | 405.33 | 422.25 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 497.90 | 503 | 519 | 432.30 | 608.70 | 581.17 | 605.43 | 630.71 | 657.04 | 684.47 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 103.20 | 137.20 | 111 | 143.60 | 177.20 | 150.78 | 157.08 | 163.64 | 170.47 | 177.58 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -56.30 | -55.10 | -62.80 | -58.60 | -63.20 | -67.15 | -69.96 | -72.88 | -75.92 | -79.09 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 8.73 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.070 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 115.50 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 21.96 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.30% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.273 |
| Total Debt | 446.40 |
| Total Equity | 1,008.32 |
| Total Capital | 1,454.71 |
| Debt Weighting | 30.69 |
| Equity Weighting | 69.31 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,661.90 | 1,731.10 | 1,638.80 | 1,939.40 | 1,930.20 | 2,010.79 | 2,094.74 | 2,182.20 | 2,273.31 | 2,368.22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 310.50 | 135.30 | 102.60 | 169.40 | 140.30 | 196.11 | 204.29 | 212.82 | 221.71 | 230.96 |
| EBIT | 260.80 | 80.40 | 38 | 111.50 | 84.10 | 131.76 | 137.26 | 142.99 | 148.96 | 155.18 |
| Tax Rate | 30.22% | 28.08% | 20.13% | 26.40% | 21.96% | 25.36% | 25.36% | 25.36% | 25.36% | 25.36% |
| EBIAT | 181.97 | 57.83 | 30.35 | 82.06 | 65.63 | 98.35 | 102.45 | 106.73 | 111.19 | 115.83 |
| Depreciation | 49.70 | 54.90 | 64.60 | 57.90 | 56.20 | 64.35 | 67.04 | 69.83 | 72.75 | 75.79 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 3.10 | -13.60 | -56.10 | 124 | -103.42 | -14.97 | -15.59 | -16.24 | -16.92 |
| Inventories | - | -5.10 | -16 | 86.70 | -176.40 | 27.53 | -24.26 | -25.28 | -26.33 | -27.43 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 34 | -26.20 | 32.60 | 33.60 | -26.42 | 6.30 | 6.56 | 6.83 | 7.12 |
| Capital Expenditure | -56.30 | -55.10 | -62.80 | -58.60 | -63.20 | -67.15 | -69.96 | -72.88 | -75.92 | -79.09 |
| UFCF | 175.37 | 89.63 | -23.65 | 144.56 | 39.83 | -6.76 | 66.59 | 69.37 | 72.27 | 75.29 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -6.30 | 57.69 | 55.94 | 54.24 | 52.59 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 214.16 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.44 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 76.79 |
| Terminal Value | 1,411.63 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 986.03 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 1,200.19 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 118.60 |
| Equity Value | 1,081.59 |
| Shares Outstanding | 115.50 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 9.36 |