Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Kimbell Royalty Partners, LP (KRP)

$17.62

+0.24 (+1.38%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -739.20 | 17.62 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 30.6670.26108.2392.93178.41294.82487.19805.081,330.412,198.50
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 17.67-21.10-10.07-105.6480.29-29.70-49.09-81.12-134.05-221.51
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 2.01-46.31-62.35-153.9043.20-152.34-251.74-416-687.45-1,136.02
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 15.6625.2152.2748.2637.10122.63202.65334.89553.40914.50
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 5.6315.7717.169.807.0541.9569.33114.57189.32312.86
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 7.0318.8619.2518.5338.2064.21106.11175.35289.76478.83
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 0.321.331.210.890.813.225.318.7814.5123.98
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -0.06-211.50-12.72-88.60-56.07-259.30-428.49-708.08-1,170.11-1,933.61
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 17.62
Beta 1.570
Diluted Shares Outstanding 34.53
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 20.16
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.34%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.302
Total Debt 219.68
Total Equity 608.43
Total Capital 828.10
Debt Weighting 26.53
Equity Weighting 73.47
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 30.6670.26108.2392.93178.41294.82487.19805.081,330.412,198.50
EBITDA 17.67-21.10-10.07-105.6480.29-29.70-49.09-81.12-134.05-221.51
EBIT 2.01-46.31-62.35-153.9043.20-152.34-251.74-416-687.45-1,136.02
Tax Rate 0.00%3.50%56.10%37.95%20.16%23.54%23.54%23.54%23.54%23.54%
EBIAT 2.01-44.69-27.37-95.4934.49-116.47-192.47-318.06-525.60-868.56
Depreciation 15.6625.2152.2748.2637.10122.63202.65334.89553.40914.50
Accounts Receivable --11.83-0.390.72-19.67-26.01-41.90-69.24-114.41-189.07
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -1.01-0.12-0.32-0.082.402.103.475.739.47
Capital Expenditure -0.06-211.50-12.72-88.60-56.07-259.30-428.49-708.08-1,170.11-1,933.61
UFCF 17.61-241.7911.67-135.42-4.24-276.74-458.11-757.03-1,250.99-2,067.28
WACC
PV UFCF -255.18-389.50-593.50-904.35-1,378
SUM PV UFCF -3,520.54

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.45
Free cash flow (t + 1) -2,108.62
Terminal Value -32,691.80
Present Value of Terminal Value -21,791.69

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -25,312.24
Net Debt 212.62
Equity Value -25,524.86
Shares Outstanding 34.53
Equity Value Per Share -739.20