Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Karora Resources Inc. (KRR.TO)
$4.5
-0.19 (-4.05%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 73.08 | 128.77 | 128.04 | 239.14 | 264.19 | 378.37 | 541.92 | 776.15 | 1,111.63 | 1,592.10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -77.58 | 7.40 | 4.17 | 123.90 | 79.97 | -11.41 | -16.34 | -23.40 | -33.52 | -48 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -95.09 | -0.58 | -5.35 | 99.93 | 50.22 | -55.97 | -80.16 | -114.80 | -164.42 | -235.49 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 17.51 | 7.98 | 9.51 | 23.98 | 29.75 | 44.56 | 63.82 | 91.40 | 130.91 | 187.49 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 24.40 | 1.34 | 34.81 | 82.85 | 94.55 | 99.93 | 143.13 | 204.99 | 293.60 | 420.50 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 2 | 1.47 | 1.09 | 1.71 | 2.19 | 4.75 | 6.80 | 9.74 | 13.95 | 19.98 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 4.79 | 6.48 | 15.04 | 20.75 | 32.88 | 33.64 | 48.18 | 69.01 | 98.83 | 141.55 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 17.08 | 4.75 | 7.26 | 6.06 | 18.68 | 32.04 | 45.89 | 65.73 | 94.14 | 134.83 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -37.39 | -13.01 | -25.39 | -46.31 | -92.02 | -102.38 | -146.64 | -210.02 | -300.79 | -430.81 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 4.5 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.870 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 153.70 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 40.37 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 5.95% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 7.488 |
| Total Debt | 41.64 |
| Total Equity | 691.64 |
| Total Capital | 733.27 |
| Debt Weighting | 5.68 |
| Equity Weighting | 94.32 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 73.08 | 128.77 | 128.04 | 239.14 | 264.19 | 378.37 | 541.92 | 776.15 | 1,111.63 | 1,592.10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -77.58 | 7.40 | 4.17 | 123.90 | 79.97 | -11.41 | -16.34 | -23.40 | -33.52 | -48 |
| EBIT | -95.09 | -0.58 | -5.35 | 99.93 | 50.22 | -55.97 | -80.16 | -114.80 | -164.42 | -235.49 |
| Tax Rate | 7.41% | -2.96% | 10.03% | 7.36% | 40.37% | 12.44% | 12.44% | 12.44% | 12.44% | 12.44% |
| EBIAT | -88.04 | -0.60 | -4.81 | 92.57 | 29.94 | -49 | -70.18 | -100.52 | -143.96 | -206.19 |
| Depreciation | 17.51 | 7.98 | 9.51 | 23.98 | 29.75 | 44.56 | 63.82 | 91.40 | 130.91 | 187.49 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 0.53 | 0.38 | -0.62 | -0.48 | -2.56 | -2.05 | -2.94 | -4.21 | -6.03 |
| Inventories | - | -1.69 | -8.56 | -5.71 | -12.13 | -0.76 | -14.54 | -20.83 | -29.83 | -42.72 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -12.34 | 2.52 | -1.21 | 12.63 | 13.36 | 13.85 | 19.84 | 28.41 | 40.69 |
| Capital Expenditure | -37.39 | -13.01 | -25.39 | -46.30 | -92.02 | -102.38 | -146.64 | -210.02 | -300.79 | -430.81 |
| UFCF | -107.92 | -19.13 | -26.34 | 62.70 | -32.30 | -96.80 | -155.75 | -223.06 | -319.48 | -457.57 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -90.13 | -135.02 | -180.06 | -240.12 | -320.21 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -965.53 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.40 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -466.72 |
| Terminal Value | -8,642.90 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -6,048.37 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -7,013.90 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -49.37 |
| Equity Value | -6,964.53 |
| Shares Outstanding | 153.70 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -45.31 |