Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions... (KTOS)
$17
-0.10 (-0.58%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 717.50 | 747.70 | 811.50 | 898.30 | 1,037.10 | 1,137.93 | 1,248.56 | 1,369.96 | 1,503.15 | 1,649.29 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 75.60 | 66 | 64.30 | 46.40 | 77.10 | 90.78 | 99.60 | 109.29 | 119.91 | 131.57 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 40.50 | 32 | 29.60 | 5.50 | 32.40 | 39.39 | 43.22 | 47.42 | 52.03 | 57.09 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 35.10 | 34 | 34.70 | 40.90 | 44.70 | 51.39 | 56.38 | 61.86 | 67.88 | 74.48 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Total Cash | 172.60 | 380.80 | 349.40 | 81.30 | 72.80 | 305.22 | 334.89 | 367.45 | 403.18 | 442.38 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 264.40 | 272.30 | 284.70 | 328.50 | 329.20 | 402.06 | 441.15 | 484.04 | 531.10 | 582.74 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 61.10 | 81.20 | 91.70 | 125.50 | 156.20 | 135.89 | 149.10 | 163.59 | 179.50 | 196.95 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 53.80 | 55.40 | 50.40 | 57.30 | 63.10 | 76.43 | 83.86 | 92.01 | 100.96 | 110.77 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -26.30 | -35.90 | -46.50 | -45.40 | -52.40 | -55.31 | -60.69 | -66.59 | -73.06 | -80.17 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 17 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.800 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 130.40 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 180.18 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | -5.91% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 8.132 |
Total Debt | 321.40 |
Total Equity | 2,216.80 |
Total Capital | 2,538.20 |
Debt Weighting | 12.66 |
Equity Weighting | 87.34 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 717.50 | 747.70 | 811.50 | 898.30 | 1,037.10 | 1,137.93 | 1,248.56 | 1,369.96 | 1,503.15 | 1,649.29 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 75.60 | 66 | 64.30 | 46.40 | 77.10 | 90.78 | 99.60 | 109.29 | 119.91 | 131.57 |
EBIT | 40.50 | 32 | 29.60 | 5.50 | 32.40 | 39.39 | 43.22 | 47.42 | 52.03 | 57.09 |
Tax Rate | 20.38% | -1,070.59% | 88.64% | -4.28% | 180.18% | -157.13% | -157.13% | -157.13% | -157.13% | -157.13% |
EBIAT | 32.25 | 374.59 | 3.36 | 5.74 | -25.98 | 101.29 | 111.14 | 121.94 | 133.80 | 146.81 |
Depreciation | 35.10 | 34 | 34.70 | 40.90 | 44.70 | 51.39 | 56.38 | 61.86 | 67.88 | 74.48 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -7.90 | -12.40 | -43.80 | -0.70 | -72.86 | -39.09 | -42.89 | -47.06 | -51.64 |
Inventories | - | -20.10 | -10.50 | -33.80 | -30.70 | 20.31 | -13.21 | -14.50 | -15.91 | -17.45 |
Accounts Payable | - | 1.60 | -5 | 6.90 | 5.80 | 13.33 | 7.43 | 8.15 | 8.95 | 9.82 |
Capital Expenditure | -26.30 | -35.90 | -46.50 | -45.40 | -52.40 | -55.31 | -60.69 | -66.59 | -73.06 | -80.17 |
UFCF | 41.05 | 346.29 | -36.34 | -69.46 | -59.28 | 58.14 | 61.96 | 67.98 | 74.59 | 81.84 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 54.67 | 54.78 | 56.52 | 58.31 | 60.16 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 284.43 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 6.35 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 85.12 |
Terminal Value | 3,621.97 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 2,662.31 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 2,946.74 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 248.60 |
Equity Value | 2,698.14 |
Shares Outstanding | 130.40 |
Equity Value Per Share | 20.69 |