Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions... (KTOS)

$9.35

+0.03 (+0.32%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 11.89 | 9.35 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 751.90618717.50747.70811.50833.89856.89880.53904.81929.77
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 0.7040.6075.9063.7060.3055.3656.8858.4560.0661.72
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -21.8022.7040.8029.7025.6022.6623.2923.9324.5925.27
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 22.5017.9035.103434.7032.7033.6034.5235.4836.45
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 129.60182.70172.60380.80349.40274.92282.50290.29298.30306.53
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 270.80237.40264.40272.20284.60304.79313.20321.84330.72339.84
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 50.4046.8061.1081.2091.7074.9777.0479.1681.3583.59
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 48.8046.6053.8055.4050.4058.6260.2461.9063.6165.36
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -26.50-22.60-26.30-35.90-46.50-35.65-36.64-37.65-38.69-39.75
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 9.35
Beta 0.899
Diluted Shares Outstanding 118.70
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 145.45
After-tax Cost of Debt -3.17%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.935
Total Debt 339.50
Total Equity 1,109.85
Total Capital 1,449.35
Debt Weighting 23.42
Equity Weighting 76.58
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 751.90618717.50747.70811.50833.89856.89880.53904.81929.77
EBITDA 0.7040.6075.9063.7060.3055.3656.8858.4560.0661.72
EBIT -21.8022.7040.8029.7025.6022.6623.2923.9324.5925.27
Tax Rate 15.94%140.23%20.38%-1,070.59%145.45%-149.72%-149.72%-149.72%-149.72%-149.72%
EBIAT -18.32-9.1332.48347.66-11.6456.5958.1559.7561.4063.09
Depreciation 22.5017.9035.103434.7032.7033.6034.5235.4836.45
Accounts Receivable -33.40-27-7.80-12.40-20.19-8.41-8.64-8.88-9.12
Inventories -3.60-14.30-20.10-10.5016.73-2.07-2.13-2.18-2.24
Accounts Payable --2.207.201.60-58.221.621.661.711.75
Capital Expenditure -26.50-22.60-26.30-35.90-46.50-35.65-36.64-37.65-38.69-39.75
UFCF -22.3220.977.18319.46-51.3458.3846.2547.5248.8350.18
WACC
PV UFCF 55.4341.6940.6739.6738.71
SUM PV UFCF 216.16

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.33
Free cash flow (t + 1) 51.18
Terminal Value 1,537.08
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,185.59

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,401.75
Net Debt -9.90
Equity Value 1,411.65
Shares Outstanding 118.70
Equity Value Per Share 11.89