Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions... (KTOS)

$17

-0.10 (-0.58%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 20.69 | 17 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 717.50747.70811.50898.301,037.101,137.931,248.561,369.961,503.151,649.29
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 75.606664.3046.4077.1090.7899.60109.29119.91131.57
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 40.503229.605.5032.4039.3943.2247.4252.0357.09
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 35.103434.7040.9044.7051.3956.3861.8667.8874.48
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 172.60380.80349.4081.3072.80305.22334.89367.45403.18442.38
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 264.40272.30284.70328.50329.20402.06441.15484.04531.10582.74
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 61.1081.2091.70125.50156.20135.89149.10163.59179.50196.95
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 53.8055.4050.4057.3063.1076.4383.8692.01100.96110.77
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -26.30-35.90-46.50-45.40-52.40-55.31-60.69-66.59-73.06-80.17
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 17
Beta 0.800
Diluted Shares Outstanding 130.40
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 180.18
After-tax Cost of Debt -5.91%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.132
Total Debt 321.40
Total Equity 2,216.80
Total Capital 2,538.20
Debt Weighting 12.66
Equity Weighting 87.34
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 717.50747.70811.50898.301,037.101,137.931,248.561,369.961,503.151,649.29
EBITDA 75.606664.3046.4077.1090.7899.60109.29119.91131.57
EBIT 40.503229.605.5032.4039.3943.2247.4252.0357.09
Tax Rate 20.38%-1,070.59%88.64%-4.28%180.18%-157.13%-157.13%-157.13%-157.13%-157.13%
EBIAT 32.25374.593.365.74-25.98101.29111.14121.94133.80146.81
Depreciation 35.103434.7040.9044.7051.3956.3861.8667.8874.48
Accounts Receivable --7.90-12.40-43.80-0.70-72.86-39.09-42.89-47.06-51.64
Inventories --20.10-10.50-33.80-30.7020.31-13.21-14.50-15.91-17.45
Accounts Payable -1.60-56.905.8013.337.438.158.959.82
Capital Expenditure -26.30-35.90-46.50-45.40-52.40-55.31-60.69-66.59-73.06-80.17
UFCF 41.05346.29-36.34-69.46-59.2858.1461.9667.9874.5981.84
WACC
PV UFCF 54.6754.7856.5258.3160.16
SUM PV UFCF 284.43

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.35
Free cash flow (t + 1) 85.12
Terminal Value 3,621.97
Present Value of Terminal Value 2,662.31

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 2,946.74
Net Debt 248.60
Equity Value 2,698.14
Shares Outstanding 130.40
Equity Value Per Share 20.69