Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
LAIX Inc. (LAIX)
$3.1
0.00 (-%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 26.49 | 101.96 | 163.71 | 155.62 | 109.59 | 194.78 | 346.18 | 615.29 | 1,093.58 | 1,943.66 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -37.78 | -73.28 | -83.04 | -53.51 | 15.01 | -111.37 | -197.95 | -351.82 | -625.31 | -1,111.40 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -37.94 | -74.22 | -91.66 | -62.87 | 9.25 | -118.42 | -210.47 | -374.08 | -664.87 | -1,181.70 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 0.16 | 0.95 | 8.62 | 9.36 | 5.76 | 7.05 | 12.52 | 22.26 | 39.56 | 70.30 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 72.30 | 119.65 | 88.13 | 36.65 | 11.22 | 186.18 | 330.91 | 588.13 | 1,045.31 | 1,857.88 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 3.35 | 14.90 | 8.98 | 4.39 | 4.47 | 15.45 | 27.46 | 48.81 | 86.75 | 154.18 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 10.44 | 11.13 | 22.03 | 13.37 | 10.49 | 31.92 | 56.73 | 100.84 | 179.22 | 318.54 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -1.72 | -6.89 | -8.27 | -1.49 | -0.92 | -7.82 | -13.91 | -24.71 | -43.93 | -78.07 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 3.1 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.778 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 107.49 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 2.77 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | -36.46% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 7.204 |
| Total Debt | 1.62 |
| Total Equity | 333.21 |
| Total Capital | 334.82 |
| Debt Weighting | 0.48 |
| Equity Weighting | 99.52 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 26.49 | 101.96 | 163.71 | 155.62 | 109.59 | 194.78 | 346.18 | 615.29 | 1,093.58 | 1,943.66 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -37.78 | -73.28 | -83.04 | -53.51 | 15.01 | -111.37 | -197.95 | -351.82 | -625.31 | -1,111.40 |
| EBIT | -37.94 | -74.22 | -91.66 | -62.87 | 9.25 | -118.42 | -210.47 | -374.08 | -664.87 | -1,181.70 |
| Tax Rate | -2.36% | -5.21% | -0.33% | -0.48% | 2.77% | -1.12% | -1.12% | -1.12% | -1.12% | -1.12% |
| EBIAT | -38.84 | -78.09 | -91.96 | -63.17 | 9 | -119.75 | -212.83 | -378.28 | -672.33 | -1,194.97 |
| Depreciation | 0.16 | 0.95 | 8.62 | 9.36 | 5.76 | 7.05 | 12.52 | 22.26 | 39.56 | 70.30 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -11.54 | 5.91 | 4.59 | -0.08 | -10.98 | -12.01 | -21.35 | -37.94 | -67.43 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 0.69 | 10.90 | -8.66 | -2.88 | 21.43 | 24.81 | 44.10 | 78.39 | 139.32 |
| Capital Expenditure | -1.72 | -6.89 | -8.27 | -1.49 | -0.92 | -7.82 | -13.91 | -24.71 | -43.93 | -78.07 |
| UFCF | -40.39 | -94.88 | -74.79 | -59.38 | 10.88 | -110.08 | -201.41 | -357.98 | -636.26 | -1,130.85 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -102.89 | -175.96 | -292.30 | -485.58 | -806.66 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -1,863.39 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 6.99 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -1,153.47 |
| Terminal Value | -23,115.59 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -16,488.80 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -18,352.19 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -8.52 |
| Equity Value | -18,343.66 |
| Shares Outstanding | 107.49 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -170.66 |