Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

LAIX Inc. (LAIX)

$3.1

0.00 (-%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -170.66 | 3.1 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 26.49101.96163.71155.62109.59194.78346.18615.291,093.581,943.66
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -37.78-73.28-83.04-53.5115.01-111.37-197.95-351.82-625.31-1,111.40
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -37.94-74.22-91.66-62.879.25-118.42-210.47-374.08-664.87-1,181.70
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 0.160.958.629.365.767.0512.5222.2639.5670.30
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 72.30119.6588.1336.6511.22186.18330.91588.131,045.311,857.88
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 3.3514.908.984.394.4715.4527.4648.8186.75154.18
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 10.4411.1322.0313.3710.4931.9256.73100.84179.22318.54
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1.72-6.89-8.27-1.49-0.92-7.82-13.91-24.71-43.93-78.07
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 3.1
Beta 0.778
Diluted Shares Outstanding 107.49
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 2.77
After-tax Cost of Debt -36.46%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.204
Total Debt 1.62
Total Equity 333.21
Total Capital 334.82
Debt Weighting 0.48
Equity Weighting 99.52
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 26.49101.96163.71155.62109.59194.78346.18615.291,093.581,943.66
EBITDA -37.78-73.28-83.04-53.5115.01-111.37-197.95-351.82-625.31-1,111.40
EBIT -37.94-74.22-91.66-62.879.25-118.42-210.47-374.08-664.87-1,181.70
Tax Rate -2.36%-5.21%-0.33%-0.48%2.77%-1.12%-1.12%-1.12%-1.12%-1.12%
EBIAT -38.84-78.09-91.96-63.179-119.75-212.83-378.28-672.33-1,194.97
Depreciation 0.160.958.629.365.767.0512.5222.2639.5670.30
Accounts Receivable --11.545.914.59-0.08-10.98-12.01-21.35-37.94-67.43
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -0.6910.90-8.66-2.8821.4324.8144.1078.39139.32
Capital Expenditure -1.72-6.89-8.27-1.49-0.92-7.82-13.91-24.71-43.93-78.07
UFCF -40.39-94.88-74.79-59.3810.88-110.08-201.41-357.98-636.26-1,130.85
WACC
PV UFCF -102.89-175.96-292.30-485.58-806.66
SUM PV UFCF -1,863.39

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.99
Free cash flow (t + 1) -1,153.47
Terminal Value -23,115.59
Present Value of Terminal Value -16,488.80

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -18,352.19
Net Debt -8.52
Equity Value -18,343.66
Shares Outstanding 107.49
Equity Value Per Share -170.66