Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Lamar Advertising Company (LAMR)
$94.9319
+0.31 (+0.33%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,627.22 | 1,753.64 | 1,568.86 | 1,787.40 | 2,032.14 | 2,158.41 | 2,292.52 | 2,434.97 | 2,586.27 | 2,746.97 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 670.92 | 768.53 | 636.97 | 775.02 | 933.06 | 927.82 | 985.47 | 1,046.71 | 1,111.75 | 1,180.83 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 445.66 | 518.50 | 385.67 | 503.73 | 583.61 | 597.62 | 634.75 | 674.19 | 716.08 | 760.58 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 225.26 | 250.03 | 251.30 | 271.29 | 349.45 | 330.21 | 350.72 | 372.52 | 395.66 | 420.25 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 21.49 | 26.19 | 121.57 | 99.79 | 52.62 | 80.88 | 85.90 | 91.24 | 96.91 | 102.93 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 235.58 | 254.93 | 240.85 | 269.92 | 285.04 | 317.26 | 336.97 | 357.91 | 380.15 | 403.77 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 21.25 | 14.97 | 12.02 | 16.43 | 19.64 | 20.77 | 22.06 | 23.43 | 24.89 | 26.43 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -117.64 | -140.96 | -62.27 | -126.09 | -167.08 | -148.98 | -158.24 | -168.07 | -178.52 | -189.61 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 94.9,319 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.420 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 101.63 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 3.83 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.68% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 10.178 |
| Total Debt | 4,571.57 |
| Total Equity | 9,648.36 |
| Total Capital | 14,219.93 |
| Debt Weighting | 32.15 |
| Equity Weighting | 67.85 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,627.22 | 1,753.64 | 1,568.86 | 1,787.40 | 2,032.14 | 2,158.41 | 2,292.52 | 2,434.97 | 2,586.27 | 2,746.97 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 670.92 | 768.53 | 636.97 | 775.02 | 933.06 | 927.82 | 985.47 | 1,046.71 | 1,111.75 | 1,180.83 |
| EBIT | 445.66 | 518.50 | 385.67 | 503.73 | 583.61 | 597.62 | 634.75 | 674.19 | 716.08 | 760.58 |
| Tax Rate | 3.39% | -1.15% | 1.88% | 2.33% | 3.83% | 2.05% | 2.05% | 2.05% | 2.05% | 2.05% |
| EBIAT | 430.57 | 524.46 | 378.42 | 492 | 561.28 | 585.34 | 621.71 | 660.34 | 701.37 | 744.95 |
| Depreciation | 225.26 | 250.03 | 251.30 | 271.29 | 349.45 | 330.21 | 350.72 | 372.52 | 395.66 | 420.25 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -19.35 | 14.08 | -29.06 | -15.12 | -32.22 | -19.71 | -20.94 | -22.24 | -23.62 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | -6.27 | -2.96 | 4.41 | 3.21 | 1.13 | 1.29 | 1.37 | 1.46 | 1.55 |
| Capital Expenditure | -117.64 | -140.96 | -62.27 | -126.09 | -167.08 | -148.98 | -158.24 | -168.07 | -178.52 | -189.61 |
| UFCF | 538.19 | 607.90 | 578.57 | 612.55 | 731.74 | 735.46 | 795.77 | 845.21 | 897.73 | 953.51 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 682.44 | 685.16 | 675.26 | 665.51 | 655.90 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 3,364.27 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.77 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 972.58 |
| Terminal Value | 16,855.88 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 11,594.76 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 14,959.03 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 4,518.95 |
| Equity Value | 10,440.08 |
| Shares Outstanding | 101.63 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 102.72 |