Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
nLIGHT, Inc. (LASR)
$14.8
+0.56 (+3.93%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 191.36 | 176.62 | 222.79 | 270.15 | 242.06 | 259.79 | 278.81 | 299.24 | 321.15 | 344.68 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 25.83 | 2.80 | -6.83 | -14.82 | -38.01 | -4.77 | -5.11 | -5.49 | -5.89 | -6.32 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 17.54 | -6.77 | -20.51 | -29.88 | -53.71 | -19.29 | -20.70 | -22.22 | -23.84 | -25.59 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 8.29 | 9.56 | 13.68 | 15.06 | 15.70 | 14.52 | 15.59 | 16.73 | 17.95 | 19.27 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 149.48 | 117.25 | 102.28 | 146.53 | 108.22 | 150.34 | 161.36 | 173.17 | 185.86 | 199.47 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 28.02 | 30.04 | 37.81 | 51.23 | 48.29 | 45.48 | 48.81 | 52.39 | 56.22 | 60.34 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 35.33 | 46.13 | 54.71 | 73.75 | 67.60 | 64.62 | 69.35 | 74.43 | 79.88 | 85.73 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 12.07 | 12.70 | 21.06 | 26.35 | 17.51 | 20.75 | 22.27 | 23.90 | 25.65 | 27.53 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -11.71 | -13.63 | -24.35 | -21.56 | -21.72 | -21.68 | -23.27 | -24.97 | -26.80 | -28.76 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 14.8 |
---|---|
Beta | 2.227 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 44.44 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | -0.63 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.39% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 14.294 |
Total Debt | 15.61 |
Total Equity | 657.65 |
Total Capital | 673.26 |
Debt Weighting | 2.32 |
Equity Weighting | 97.68 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 191.36 | 176.62 | 222.79 | 270.15 | 242.06 | 259.79 | 278.81 | 299.24 | 321.15 | 344.68 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 25.83 | 2.80 | -6.83 | -14.82 | -38.01 | -4.77 | -5.11 | -5.49 | -5.89 | -6.32 |
EBIT | 17.54 | -6.77 | -20.51 | -29.88 | -53.71 | -19.29 | -20.70 | -22.22 | -23.84 | -25.59 |
Tax Rate | 20.53% | -90.45% | -1.65% | 1.25% | -0.63% | -14.19% | -14.19% | -14.19% | -14.19% | -14.19% |
EBIAT | 13.94 | -12.88 | -20.85 | -29.51 | -54.05 | -22.02 | -23.64 | -25.37 | -27.23 | -29.22 |
Depreciation | 8.29 | 9.56 | 13.68 | 15.06 | 15.70 | 14.52 | 15.59 | 16.73 | 17.95 | 19.27 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -2.02 | -7.77 | -13.42 | 2.94 | 2.81 | -3.33 | -3.58 | -3.84 | -4.12 |
Inventories | - | -10.80 | -8.57 | -19.04 | 6.15 | 2.98 | -4.73 | -5.08 | -5.45 | -5.85 |
Accounts Payable | - | 0.63 | 8.36 | 5.29 | -8.84 | 3.24 | 1.52 | 1.63 | 1.75 | 1.88 |
Capital Expenditure | -11.71 | -13.63 | -24.35 | -21.56 | -21.72 | -21.68 | -23.27 | -24.97 | -26.80 | -28.76 |
UFCF | 10.51 | -29.14 | -39.51 | -63.18 | -59.82 | -20.14 | -37.86 | -40.64 | -43.61 | -46.81 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | -17.66 | -29.11 | -27.40 | -25.79 | -24.27 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | -124.23 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 14.04 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | -47.74 |
Terminal Value | -396.54 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | -205.59 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | -329.82 |
---|---|
Net Debt | -42.22 |
Equity Value | -287.60 |
Shares Outstanding | 44.44 |
Equity Value Per Share | -6.47 |