Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

nLIGHT, Inc. (LASR)

$14.8

+0.56 (+3.93%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -6.47 | 14.8 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 191.36176.62222.79270.15242.06259.79278.81299.24321.15344.68
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 25.832.80-6.83-14.82-38.01-4.77-5.11-5.49-5.89-6.32
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 17.54-6.77-20.51-29.88-53.71-19.29-20.70-22.22-23.84-25.59
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 8.299.5613.6815.0615.7014.5215.5916.7317.9519.27
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 149.48117.25102.28146.53108.22150.34161.36173.17185.86199.47
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 28.0230.0437.8151.2348.2945.4848.8152.3956.2260.34
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 35.3346.1354.7173.7567.6064.6269.3574.4379.8885.73
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 12.0712.7021.0626.3517.5120.7522.2723.9025.6527.53
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -11.71-13.63-24.35-21.56-21.72-21.68-23.27-24.97-26.80-28.76
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 14.8
Beta 2.227
Diluted Shares Outstanding 44.44
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -0.63
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.39%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 14.294
Total Debt 15.61
Total Equity 657.65
Total Capital 673.26
Debt Weighting 2.32
Equity Weighting 97.68
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 191.36176.62222.79270.15242.06259.79278.81299.24321.15344.68
EBITDA 25.832.80-6.83-14.82-38.01-4.77-5.11-5.49-5.89-6.32
EBIT 17.54-6.77-20.51-29.88-53.71-19.29-20.70-22.22-23.84-25.59
Tax Rate 20.53%-90.45%-1.65%1.25%-0.63%-14.19%-14.19%-14.19%-14.19%-14.19%
EBIAT 13.94-12.88-20.85-29.51-54.05-22.02-23.64-25.37-27.23-29.22
Depreciation 8.299.5613.6815.0615.7014.5215.5916.7317.9519.27
Accounts Receivable --2.02-7.77-13.422.942.81-3.33-3.58-3.84-4.12
Inventories --10.80-8.57-19.046.152.98-4.73-5.08-5.45-5.85
Accounts Payable -0.638.365.29-8.843.241.521.631.751.88
Capital Expenditure -11.71-13.63-24.35-21.56-21.72-21.68-23.27-24.97-26.80-28.76
UFCF 10.51-29.14-39.51-63.18-59.82-20.14-37.86-40.64-43.61-46.81
WACC
PV UFCF -17.66-29.11-27.40-25.79-24.27
SUM PV UFCF -124.23

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 14.04
Free cash flow (t + 1) -47.74
Terminal Value -396.54
Present Value of Terminal Value -205.59

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -329.82
Net Debt -42.22
Equity Value -287.60
Shares Outstanding 44.44
Equity Value Per Share -6.47