Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
nLIGHT, Inc. (LASR)
$9.15
-0.28 (-2.97%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 191.36 | 176.62 | 222.79 | 270.15 | 242.06 | 259.79 | 278.81 | 299.24 | 321.15 | 344.68 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 25.83 | 2.80 | -6.83 | -14.82 | -38.01 | -4.77 | -5.11 | -5.49 | -5.89 | -6.32 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 17.54 | -6.77 | -20.51 | -29.88 | -53.71 | -19.29 | -20.70 | -22.22 | -23.84 | -25.59 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 8.29 | 9.56 | 13.68 | 15.06 | 15.70 | 14.52 | 15.59 | 16.73 | 17.95 | 19.27 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 149.48 | 117.25 | 102.28 | 146.53 | 108.22 | 150.34 | 161.36 | 173.17 | 185.86 | 199.47 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 28.02 | 30.04 | 37.81 | 51.23 | 48.29 | 45.48 | 48.81 | 52.39 | 56.22 | 60.34 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 35.33 | 46.13 | 54.71 | 73.75 | 67.60 | 64.62 | 69.35 | 74.43 | 79.88 | 85.73 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 12.07 | 12.70 | 21.06 | 26.35 | 17.51 | 20.75 | 22.27 | 23.90 | 25.65 | 27.53 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -11.71 | -13.63 | -24.35 | -21.56 | -21.72 | -21.68 | -23.27 | -24.97 | -26.80 | -28.76 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 9.15 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.256 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 44.44 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -0.63 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.39% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 14.213 |
| Total Debt | 15.61 |
| Total Equity | 406.59 |
| Total Capital | 422.20 |
| Debt Weighting | 3.70 |
| Equity Weighting | 96.30 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 191.36 | 176.62 | 222.79 | 270.15 | 242.06 | 259.79 | 278.81 | 299.24 | 321.15 | 344.68 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 25.83 | 2.80 | -6.83 | -14.82 | -38.01 | -4.77 | -5.11 | -5.49 | -5.89 | -6.32 |
| EBIT | 17.54 | -6.77 | -20.51 | -29.88 | -53.71 | -19.29 | -20.70 | -22.22 | -23.84 | -25.59 |
| Tax Rate | 20.53% | -90.45% | -1.65% | 1.25% | -0.63% | -14.19% | -14.19% | -14.19% | -14.19% | -14.19% |
| EBIAT | 13.94 | -12.88 | -20.85 | -29.51 | -54.05 | -22.02 | -23.64 | -25.37 | -27.23 | -29.22 |
| Depreciation | 8.29 | 9.56 | 13.68 | 15.06 | 15.70 | 14.52 | 15.59 | 16.73 | 17.95 | 19.27 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -2.02 | -7.77 | -13.42 | 2.94 | 2.81 | -3.33 | -3.58 | -3.84 | -4.12 |
| Inventories | - | -10.80 | -8.57 | -19.04 | 6.15 | 2.98 | -4.73 | -5.08 | -5.45 | -5.85 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 0.63 | 8.36 | 5.29 | -8.84 | 3.24 | 1.52 | 1.63 | 1.75 | 1.88 |
| Capital Expenditure | -11.71 | -13.63 | -24.35 | -21.56 | -21.72 | -21.68 | -23.27 | -24.97 | -26.80 | -28.76 |
| UFCF | 10.51 | -29.14 | -39.51 | -63.18 | -59.82 | -20.14 | -37.86 | -40.64 | -43.61 | -46.81 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -17.70 | -29.23 | -27.57 | -26 | -24.51 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -125.01 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 13.81 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -47.74 |
| Terminal Value | -404.26 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -211.72 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -336.72 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -42.22 |
| Equity Value | -294.51 |
| Shares Outstanding | 44.44 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -6.63 |