Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Lumibird SA (LBIRD.PA)

16.6 €

-0.10 (-0.60%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -3.10 | 16.6 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 37.86101.80112.65129.51166.39259.14403.59628.58978.981,524.70
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 6.2216.5919.7918.2932.2543.4367.64105.34164.06255.52
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 4.0811.5011.298.5819.8726.2640.8963.6999.19154.49
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 2.145.098.509.7112.3817.1726.7441.6564.87101.03
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 10.7421.5950.3080.3397.13111.24173.25269.82420.24654.49
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 19.6222.8526.2637.2045.8579.74124.19193.42301.24469.17
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 7.5720.3522.5225.8833.2651.7980.67125.63195.67304.74
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -4.30-11.01-11.28-12.38-20.11-27.90-43.45-67.67-105.39-164.15
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 16.6
Beta 1.693
Diluted Shares Outstanding 22.35
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 21.27
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.59%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.495
Total Debt 112.03
Total Equity 371.04
Total Capital 483.07
Debt Weighting 23.19
Equity Weighting 76.81
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 37.86101.80112.65129.51166.39259.14403.59628.58978.981,524.70
EBITDA 6.2216.5919.7918.2932.2543.4367.64105.34164.06255.52
EBIT 4.0811.5011.298.5819.8726.2640.8963.6999.19154.49
Tax Rate 34.47%26.03%16.58%21.59%21.27%23.99%23.99%23.99%23.99%23.99%
EBIAT 2.678.519.426.7315.6419.9631.0848.4175.40117.43
Depreciation 2.145.098.509.7112.3817.1726.7441.6564.87101.03
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories --3.23-3.41-10.95-8.65-33.89-44.45-69.23-107.82-167.93
Accounts Payable -12.782.173.377.3718.5428.8744.9770.03109.07
Capital Expenditure -4.30-11.01-11.28-12.38-20.11-27.90-43.45-67.67-105.39-164.15
UFCF 0.5112.145.40-3.526.64-6.12-1.20-1.87-2.91-4.54
WACC
PV UFCF -5.61-1.01-1.44-2.05-2.92
SUM PV UFCF -13.02

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.20
Free cash flow (t + 1) -4.63
Terminal Value -64.29
Present Value of Terminal Value -41.40

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -54.43
Net Debt 14.90
Equity Value -69.33
Shares Outstanding 22.35
Equity Value Per Share -3.10