Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Liberty Global plc (LBTYA)

$25.02

+0.39 (+1.58%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -37.11 | 25.02 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	15,048.90	11,957.90	11,541.50	11,980.10	10,311.30	9,430.93	8,625.73	7,889.28	7,215.70	6,599.63
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	4,278	7,635.50	16,812.50	1,634.90	17,135.90	7,880.17	7,207.37	6,592.01	6,029.19	5,514.43
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	-579	3,777.30	13,160.30	-696.40	14,782.20	5,268.37	4,818.56	4,407.16	4,030.88	3,686.73
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	4,857	3,858.20	3,652.20	2,331.30	2,353.70	2,611.80	2,388.81	2,184.86	1,998.32	1,827.70
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	1,672.40	1,480.50	12,924.40	2,927.40	3,180.20	3,597.97	3,290.78	3,009.81	2,752.84	2,517.81
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	1,540.40	1,342.10	1,404.80	1,090.70	907.30	972.04	889.05	813.14	743.72	680.22
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	1,046.60	874.30	963.90	618.20	613.40	636.15	581.84	532.16	486.72	445.17
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-1,953.10	-1,453	-1,243.10	-1,350.20	-1,408	-1,147.28	-1,049.33	-959.74	-877.79	-802.85
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 25.02
Beta	1.173
Diluted Shares Outstanding	565.04
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	4.10
After-tax Cost of Debt	5.27%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	8.281
Total Debt	16,051.20
Total Equity	14,137.41
Total Capital	30,188.61
Debt Weighting	53.17
Equity Weighting	46.83
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	15,048.90	11,957.90	11,541.50	11,980.10	10,311.30	9,430.93	8,625.73	7,889.28	7,215.70	6,599.63
EBITDA	4,278	7,635.50	16,812.50	1,634.90	17,135.90	7,880.17	7,207.37	6,592.01	6,029.19	5,514.43
EBIT	-579	3,777.30	13,160.30	-696.40	14,782.20	5,268.37	4,818.56	4,407.16	4,030.88	3,686.73
Tax Rate	-78.54%	-348.27%	1,096.66%	5.55%	4.10%	135.90%	135.90%	135.90%	135.90%	135.90%
EBIAT	-1,033.75	16,932.48	-131,163.57	-657.77	14,176.16	-1,891.31	-1,729.83	-1,582.14	-1,447.06	-1,323.51
Depreciation	4,857	3,858.20	3,652.20	2,331.30	2,353.70	2,611.80	2,388.81	2,184.86	1,998.32	1,827.70
Accounts Receivable	-	198.30	-62.70	314.10	183.40	-64.74	82.99	75.91	69.42	63.50
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Accounts Payable	-	-172.30	89.60	-345.70	-4.80	22.75	-54.31	-49.68	-45.44	-41.56
Capital Expenditure	-1,953.10	-1,453	-1,243.10	-1,350.20	-1,408	-1,147.28	-1,049.33	-959.74	-877.79	-802.85
UFCF	1,870.15	19,363.68	-128,727.56	291.73	15,300.46	-468.77	-361.67	-330.79	-302.55	-276.72
WACC
PV UFCF						-439.42	-317.79	-272.46	-233.59	-200.27
SUM PV UFCF										-1,463.54

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	6.68
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-282.25
Terminal Value	-6,031
Present Value of Terminal Value	-4,364.90

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-5,828.44
Net Debt	15,140.60
Equity Value	-20,969.04
Shares Outstanding	565.04
Equity Value Per Share	-37.11