Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Liberty Global plc (LBTYA)

$25.02

+0.39 (+1.58%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -37.11 | 25.02 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 15,048.9011,957.9011,541.5011,980.1010,311.309,430.938,625.737,889.287,215.706,599.63
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 4,2787,635.5016,812.501,634.9017,135.907,880.177,207.376,592.016,029.195,514.43
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -5793,777.3013,160.30-696.4014,782.205,268.374,818.564,407.164,030.883,686.73
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 4,8573,858.203,652.202,331.302,353.702,611.802,388.812,184.861,998.321,827.70
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 1,672.401,480.5012,924.402,927.403,180.203,597.973,290.783,009.812,752.842,517.81
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,540.401,342.101,404.801,090.70907.30972.04889.05813.14743.72680.22
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1,046.60874.30963.90618.20613.40636.15581.84532.16486.72445.17
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,953.10-1,453-1,243.10-1,350.20-1,408-1,147.28-1,049.33-959.74-877.79-802.85
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 25.02
Beta 1.173
Diluted Shares Outstanding 565.04
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 4.10
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.27%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.281
Total Debt 16,051.20
Total Equity 14,137.41
Total Capital 30,188.61
Debt Weighting 53.17
Equity Weighting 46.83
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 15,048.9011,957.9011,541.5011,980.1010,311.309,430.938,625.737,889.287,215.706,599.63
EBITDA 4,2787,635.5016,812.501,634.9017,135.907,880.177,207.376,592.016,029.195,514.43
EBIT -5793,777.3013,160.30-696.4014,782.205,268.374,818.564,407.164,030.883,686.73
Tax Rate -78.54%-348.27%1,096.66%5.55%4.10%135.90%135.90%135.90%135.90%135.90%
EBIAT -1,033.7516,932.48-131,163.57-657.7714,176.16-1,891.31-1,729.83-1,582.14-1,447.06-1,323.51
Depreciation 4,8573,858.203,652.202,331.302,353.702,611.802,388.812,184.861,998.321,827.70
Accounts Receivable -198.30-62.70314.10183.40-64.7482.9975.9169.4263.50
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable --172.3089.60-345.70-4.8022.75-54.31-49.68-45.44-41.56
Capital Expenditure -1,953.10-1,453-1,243.10-1,350.20-1,408-1,147.28-1,049.33-959.74-877.79-802.85
UFCF 1,870.1519,363.68-128,727.56291.7315,300.46-468.77-361.67-330.79-302.55-276.72
WACC
PV UFCF -439.42-317.79-272.46-233.59-200.27
SUM PV UFCF -1,463.54

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.68
Free cash flow (t + 1) -282.25
Terminal Value -6,031
Present Value of Terminal Value -4,364.90

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -5,828.44
Net Debt 15,140.60
Equity Value -20,969.04
Shares Outstanding 565.04
Equity Value Per Share -37.11