Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Lennar Corporation (LEN)

$102.31

-1.19 (-1.15%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 62.25 | 102.31 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	20,571.63	22,259.56	22,488.85	27,130.68	33,671.01	38,215.13	43,372.50	49,225.90	55,869.25	63,409.16
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	2,343.44	2,551.04	3,238.22	5,878.57	6,067.26	5,880.41	6,674	7,574.70	8,596.96	9,757.17
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	2,252.26	2,458.84	3,143.67	5,792.62	5,980.19	5,738.76	6,513.24	7,392.24	8,389.87	9,522.14
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	91.18	92.20	94.55	85.95	87.07	141.65	160.76	182.46	207.09	235.03
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	1,562.62	1,449.73	2,916.53	2,963.40	5,789.29	4,218.49	4,787.80	5,433.95	6,167.29	6,999.61
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	1,041.84	829.97	938.08	1,296.85	673.98	1,509.19	1,712.87	1,944.03	2,206.39	2,504.16
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	17,068.70	18,093.65	17,175.15	19,169.40	21,432.01	28,656.43	32,523.80	36,913.10	41,894.76	47,548.72
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	1,325.40	1,069.18	1,037.34	1,321.25	1,616.13	1,951.15	2,214.47	2,513.32	2,852.51	3,237.48
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-130.44	-86.50	-72.75	-65.17	-57.21	-134.23	-152.35	-172.91	-196.25	-222.73
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 102.31
Beta	1.411
Diluted Shares Outstanding	306.61
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	23.28
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.84%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	10.140
Total Debt	-
Total Equity	31,369.47
Total Capital	31,369.47
Debt Weighting	0.00
Equity Weighting	100.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	20,571.63	22,259.56	22,488.85	27,130.68	33,671.01	38,215.13	43,372.50	49,225.90	55,869.25	63,409.16
EBITDA	2,343.44	2,551.04	3,238.22	5,878.57	6,067.26	5,880.41	6,674	7,574.70	8,596.96	9,757.17
EBIT	2,252.26	2,458.84	3,143.67	5,792.62	5,980.19	5,738.76	6,513.24	7,392.24	8,389.87	9,522.14
Tax Rate	25.05%	24.04%	21.09%	23.87%	23.28%	23.47%	23.47%	23.47%	23.47%	23.47%
EBIAT	1,688.02	1,867.70	2,480.73	4,409.98	4,587.75	4,392.04	4,984.78	5,657.50	6,421.02	7,287.58
Depreciation	91.18	92.20	94.55	85.95	87.07	141.65	160.76	182.46	207.09	235.03
Accounts Receivable	-	211.87	-108.11	-358.77	622.87	-835.21	-203.68	-231.16	-262.36	-297.77
Inventories	-	-1,024.94	918.50	-1,994.25	-2,262.61	-7,224.42	-3,867.37	-4,389.29	-4,981.66	-5,653.96
Accounts Payable	-	-256.22	-31.84	283.91	294.88	335.02	263.32	298.86	339.19	384.96
Capital Expenditure	-130.44	-86.50	-72.75	-65.17	-57.21	-134.23	-152.35	-172.91	-196.25	-222.73
UFCF	1,648.76	804.11	3,281.08	2,361.66	3,272.75	-3,325.16	1,185.47	1,345.45	1,527.03	1,733.11
WACC
PV UFCF						-3,019.03	977.24	1,007.01	1,037.69	1,069.31
SUM PV UFCF										1,072.21

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	10.14
Free cash flow (t + 1)	1,767.78
Terminal Value	21,717.15
Present Value of Terminal Value	13,399.16

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	14,471.36
Net Debt	-4,616.12
Equity Value	19,087.49
Shares Outstanding	306.61
Equity Value Per Share	62.25