Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (LGND)
$71.45
+1.40 (+2.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 141.10 | 251.45 | 120.28 | 186.42 | 277.13 | 366.98 | 485.97 | 643.53 | 852.17 | 1,128.46 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 68.94 | 236.32 | 876.12 | 44.85 | 117.11 | 688.13 | 911.23 | 1,206.67 | 1,597.90 | 2,115.97 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 57.23 | 221.61 | 832.38 | 16.88 | 66.04 | 626.52 | 829.65 | 1,098.63 | 1,454.83 | 1,926.52 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 11.71 | 14.72 | 43.73 | 27.97 | 51.07 | 61.61 | 81.59 | 108.04 | 143.07 | 189.45 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Total Cash | 201.66 | 764.57 | 1,069.87 | 411.19 | 341.11 | 1,233.14 | 1,632.95 | 2,162.39 | 2,863.47 | 3,791.87 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 29.97 | 55.85 | 41.75 | 59.06 | 91.65 | 104.89 | 138.90 | 183.94 | 243.57 | 322.54 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 4.37 | 7.12 | 7.30 | 26.49 | 27.33 | 26.47 | 35.05 | 46.42 | 61.47 | 81.40 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 2.26 | 4.18 | 2.42 | 3.78 | 5.06 | 6.70 | 8.88 | 11.75 | 15.57 | 20.61 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -7.15 | -11.89 | -2.55 | -4.46 | -8.76 | -12.82 | -16.98 | -22.49 | -29.78 | -39.43 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 71.45 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.975 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 17.14 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | -21.75 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 5.57% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 8.135 |
Total Debt | 336.26 |
Total Equity | 1,224.80 |
Total Capital | 1,561.05 |
Debt Weighting | 21.54 |
Equity Weighting | 78.46 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 141.10 | 251.45 | 120.28 | 186.42 | 277.13 | 366.98 | 485.97 | 643.53 | 852.17 | 1,128.46 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 68.94 | 236.32 | 876.12 | 44.85 | 117.11 | 688.13 | 911.23 | 1,206.67 | 1,597.90 | 2,115.97 |
EBIT | 57.23 | 221.61 | 832.38 | 16.88 | 66.04 | 626.52 | 829.65 | 1,098.63 | 1,454.83 | 1,926.52 |
Tax Rate | 78.06% | 17.31% | 21.01% | 71.67% | -21.75% | 33.26% | 33.26% | 33.26% | 33.26% | 33.26% |
EBIAT | 12.56 | 183.24 | 657.54 | 4.78 | 80.40 | 418.14 | 553.70 | 733.22 | 970.95 | 1,285.75 |
Depreciation | 11.71 | 14.72 | 43.73 | 27.97 | 51.07 | 61.61 | 81.59 | 108.04 | 143.07 | 189.45 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -25.88 | 14.10 | -17.32 | -32.58 | -13.25 | -34.01 | -45.03 | -59.64 | -78.97 |
Inventories | - | -2.75 | -0.17 | -19.19 | -0.84 | 0.85 | -8.58 | -11.37 | -15.05 | -19.93 |
Accounts Payable | - | 1.92 | -1.76 | 1.36 | 1.28 | 1.64 | 2.17 | 2.88 | 3.81 | 5.05 |
Capital Expenditure | -7.15 | -11.89 | -2.55 | -4.46 | -8.76 | -12.82 | -16.98 | -22.49 | -29.78 | -39.43 |
UFCF | 17.12 | 159.36 | 710.88 | -6.85 | 90.57 | 456.17 | 577.89 | 765.25 | 1,013.36 | 1,341.91 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 424.03 | 499.32 | 614.62 | 756.55 | 931.25 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 3,225.78 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 7.58 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 1,368.75 |
Terminal Value | 24,529.60 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 17,022.87 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 20,248.65 |
---|---|
Net Debt | -4.85 |
Equity Value | 20,253.50 |
Shares Outstanding | 17.14 |
Equity Value Per Share | 1,181.51 |