Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

LKQ Corporation (LKQ)

$53.8

+0.23 (+0.43%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 36.98 | 53.8 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	11,876.67	12,506.11	11,628.83	13,088.50	12,794	13,068.66	13,349.21	13,635.79	13,928.51	14,227.53
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	1,111.97	1,209.50	1,284.17	1,778.19	1,876	1,524.48	1,557.21	1,590.64	1,624.79	1,659.67
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	817.89	895.09	984.68	1,494.19	1,612	1,216.09	1,242.20	1,268.87	1,296.11	1,323.93
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	294.08	314.41	299.50	284	264	308.39	315.01	321.77	328.68	335.74
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	331.76	523.02	312.15	274.13	278	364.02	371.83	379.82	387.97	396.30
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	1,154.08	1,131.13	1,073.39	1,072.77	998	1,149.76	1,174.44	1,199.65	1,225.41	1,251.71
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	2,836.08	2,772.78	2,414.61	2,610.51	2,752	2,829.89	2,890.64	2,952.69	3,016.08	3,080.83
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	942.40	942.80	932.41	1,176.02	1,339	1,122.40	1,146.50	1,171.11	1,196.25	1,221.93
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-250.03	-265.73	-172.69	-293.47	-222	-253.33	-258.77	-264.33	-270	-275.80
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 53.8
Beta	1.367
Diluted Shares Outstanding	278
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	24.31
After-tax Cost of Debt	1.50%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	9.833
Total Debt	3,935
Total Equity	14,956.40
Total Capital	18,891.40
Debt Weighting	20.83
Equity Weighting	79.17
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	11,876.67	12,506.11	11,628.83	13,088.50	12,794	13,068.66	13,349.21	13,635.79	13,928.51	14,227.53
EBITDA	1,111.97	1,209.50	1,284.17	1,778.19	1,876	1,524.48	1,557.21	1,590.64	1,624.79	1,659.67
EBIT	817.89	895.09	984.68	1,494.19	1,612	1,216.09	1,242.20	1,268.87	1,296.11	1,323.93
Tax Rate	35.42%	31.57%	27.86%	22.03%	24.31%	28.24%	28.24%	28.24%	28.24%	28.24%
EBIAT	528.20	612.47	710.33	1,164.99	1,220.15	872.68	891.41	910.55	930.10	950.07
Depreciation	294.08	314.41	299.50	284	264	308.39	315.01	321.77	328.68	335.74
Accounts Receivable	-	22.95	57.74	0.62	74.77	-151.76	-24.68	-25.21	-25.75	-26.31
Inventories	-	63.30	358.16	-195.90	-141.49	-77.89	-60.75	-62.06	-63.39	-64.75
Accounts Payable	-	0.40	-10.39	243.61	162.98	-216.60	24.10	24.61	25.14	25.68
Capital Expenditure	-250.03	-265.73	-172.69	-293.47	-222	-253.33	-258.77	-264.33	-270	-275.80
UFCF	572.25	747.79	1,242.65	1,203.85	1,358.42	481.50	886.32	905.34	924.78	944.63
WACC
PV UFCF						445.42	758.47	716.70	677.23	639.93
SUM PV UFCF										3,237.75

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	8.10
Free cash flow (t + 1)	963.52
Terminal Value	15,795.48
Present Value of Terminal Value	10,700.51

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	13,938.25
Net Debt	3,657
Equity Value	10,281.25
Shares Outstanding	278
Equity Value Per Share	36.98