Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)

$552.29

+1.75 (+0.32%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 190.46 | 552.29 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 21,493.3022,319.5024,539.8028,318.4028,541.4030,680.3732,979.6435,451.2338,108.0440,963.97
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 9,645.106,604.707,641.208,739.109,433.5010,401.6711,181.2012,019.1512,919.9013,888.15
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 8,036.105,372.106,317.307,191.507,9118,609.769,2559,948.5910,694.1711,495.62
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1,6091,232.601,323.901,547.601,522.501,791.911,926.202,070.552,225.732,392.53
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 7,408.902,438.503,681.303,908.602,211.805,028.475,405.325,810.416,245.856,713.94
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 5,776.805,541.506,9298,127.208,558.908,506.329,143.819,829.0710,565.6911,357.51
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 3,098.103,190.703,980.303,8864,309.704,525.474,864.635,229.195,621.086,042.34
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1,207.101,405.301,606.701,670.601,930.601,909.752,052.872,206.722,372.102,549.87
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -3,018.20-1,353.50-2,029.10-1,873.20-2,484-2,681.05-2,881.98-3,097.96-3,330.13-3,579.70
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 552.29
Beta 0.315
Diluted Shares Outstanding 904.62
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 8.25
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.87%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.029
Total Debt 16,238.60
Total Equity 499,612.03
Total Capital 515,850.63
Debt Weighting 3.15
Equity Weighting 96.85
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 21,493.3022,319.5024,539.8028,318.4028,541.4030,680.3732,979.6435,451.2338,108.0440,963.97
EBITDA 9,645.106,604.707,641.208,739.109,433.5010,401.6711,181.2012,019.1512,919.9013,888.15
EBIT 8,036.105,372.106,317.307,191.507,9118,609.769,2559,948.5910,694.1711,495.62
Tax Rate 12.18%11.93%14.33%9.32%8.25%11.20%11.20%11.20%11.20%11.20%
EBIAT 7,057.604,731.435,411.906,521.137,258.267,645.358,218.318,834.219,496.2710,207.95
Depreciation 1,6091,232.601,323.901,547.601,522.501,791.911,926.202,070.552,225.732,392.53
Accounts Receivable -235.30-1,387.50-1,198.20-431.7052.58-637.49-685.26-736.62-791.82
Inventories --92.60-789.6094.30-423.70-215.77-339.15-364.57-391.89-421.26
Accounts Payable -198.20201.4063.90260-20.85143.12153.85165.38177.77
Capital Expenditure -3,018.20-1,353.50-2,029.10-1,873.20-2,484-2,681.05-2,881.98-3,097.96-3,330.13-3,579.70
UFCF 5,648.404,951.432,730.995,155.535,701.366,572.166,429.016,910.827,428.747,985.47
WACC
PV UFCF 6,2065,732.615,818.915,906.515,995.43
SUM PV UFCF 29,659.48

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.90
Free cash flow (t + 1) 8,145.18
Terminal Value 208,850.73
Present Value of Terminal Value 156,803.66

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 186,463.14
Net Debt 14,171.60
Equity Value 172,291.54
Shares Outstanding 904.62
Equity Value Per Share 190.46