Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG)

$171.83

-0.92 (-0.53%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -1,512.66 | 171.83 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	7,987	9,730	9,358	15,864	33,428	49,994.85	74,772.20	111,829.16	167,251.48	250,140.99
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	2,080	2,359	2,525	-718	4,564	8,638.75	12,920.10	19,323.28	28,899.86	43,222.58
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	1,631	1,565	1,593	-1,729	3,445	5,292.92	7,916.08	11,839.28	17,706.80	26,482.26
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	449	794	932	1,011	1,119	3,345.83	5,004.02	7,484	11,193.06	16,740.32
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	981	2,474	1,628	1,404	1,353	6,799.66	10,169.56	15,209.57	22,747.40	34,020.97
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	585	491	647	1,506	1,944	3,458.96	5,173.22	7,737.06	11,571.53	17,306.35
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	316	312	292	706	826	1,720.29	2,572.86	3,847.96	5,755	8,607.17
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	58	66	35	155	124	312.62	467.55	699.27	1,045.83	1,564.14
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-3,643	-3,056	-1,839	-966	-1,830	-10,822.38	-16,185.94	-24,207.65	-36,204.92	-54,148.01
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 171.83
Beta	0.968
Diluted Shares Outstanding	253.40
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	14.84
After-tax Cost of Debt	4.28%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	8.679
Total Debt	27,949
Total Equity	43,541.72
Total Capital	71,490.72
Debt Weighting	39.09
Equity Weighting	60.91
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	7,987	9,730	9,358	15,864	33,428	49,994.85	74,772.20	111,829.16	167,251.48	250,140.99
EBITDA	2,080	2,359	2,525	-718	4,564	8,638.75	12,920.10	19,323.28	28,899.86	43,222.58
EBIT	1,631	1,565	1,593	-1,729	3,445	5,292.92	7,916.08	11,839.28	17,706.80	26,482.26
Tax Rate	61.61%	-72.31%	7.90%	31.30%	14.84%	8.67%	8.67%	8.67%	8.67%	8.67%
EBIAT	626.08	2,696.62	1,467.08	-1,187.83	2,933.93	4,834.08	7,229.84	10,812.93	16,171.80	24,186.52
Depreciation	449	794	932	1,011	1,119	3,345.83	5,004.02	7,484	11,193.06	16,740.32
Accounts Receivable	-	94	-156	-859	-438	-1,514.96	-1,714.26	-2,563.84	-3,834.47	-5,734.83
Inventories	-	4	20	-414	-120	-894.29	-852.57	-1,275.10	-1,907.04	-2,852.17
Accounts Payable	-	8	-31	120	-31	188.62	154.93	231.72	346.56	518.31
Capital Expenditure	-3,643	-3,056	-1,839	-966	-1,830	-10,822.38	-16,185.94	-24,207.65	-36,204.92	-54,148.01
UFCF	-2,567.92	540.62	393.08	-2,295.83	1,633.93	-4,863.10	-6,363.97	-9,517.94	-14,235.01	-21,289.86
WACC
PV UFCF						-4,546.66	-5,562.70	-7,778.19	-10,876.08	-15,207.78
SUM PV UFCF										-43,971.40

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	6.96
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-21,715.66
Terminal Value	-437,815.63
Present Value of Terminal Value	-312,740.62

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-356,712.03
Net Debt	26,596
Equity Value	-383,308.03
Shares Outstanding	253.40
Equity Value Per Share	-1,512.66