Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG)

$171.83

-0.92 (-0.53%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -1,512.66 | 171.83 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 7,9879,7309,35815,86433,42849,994.8574,772.20111,829.16167,251.48250,140.99
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 2,0802,3592,525-7184,5648,638.7512,920.1019,323.2828,899.8643,222.58
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,6311,5651,593-1,7293,4455,292.927,916.0811,839.2817,706.8026,482.26
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 4497949321,0111,1193,345.835,004.027,48411,193.0616,740.32
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 9812,4741,6281,4041,3536,799.6610,169.5615,209.5722,747.4034,020.97
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 5854916471,5061,9443,458.965,173.227,737.0611,571.5317,306.35
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 3163122927068261,720.292,572.863,847.965,7558,607.17
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 586635155124312.62467.55699.271,045.831,564.14
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -3,643-3,056-1,839-966-1,830-10,822.38-16,185.94-24,207.65-36,204.92-54,148.01
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 171.83
Beta 0.968
Diluted Shares Outstanding 253.40
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 14.84
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.28%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.679
Total Debt 27,949
Total Equity 43,541.72
Total Capital 71,490.72
Debt Weighting 39.09
Equity Weighting 60.91
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 7,9879,7309,35815,86433,42849,994.8574,772.20111,829.16167,251.48250,140.99
EBITDA 2,0802,3592,525-7184,5648,638.7512,920.1019,323.2828,899.8643,222.58
EBIT 1,6311,5651,593-1,7293,4455,292.927,916.0811,839.2817,706.8026,482.26
Tax Rate 61.61%-72.31%7.90%31.30%14.84%8.67%8.67%8.67%8.67%8.67%
EBIAT 626.082,696.621,467.08-1,187.832,933.934,834.087,229.8410,812.9316,171.8024,186.52
Depreciation 4497949321,0111,1193,345.835,004.027,48411,193.0616,740.32
Accounts Receivable -94-156-859-438-1,514.96-1,714.26-2,563.84-3,834.47-5,734.83
Inventories -420-414-120-894.29-852.57-1,275.10-1,907.04-2,852.17
Accounts Payable -8-31120-31188.62154.93231.72346.56518.31
Capital Expenditure -3,643-3,056-1,839-966-1,830-10,822.38-16,185.94-24,207.65-36,204.92-54,148.01
UFCF -2,567.92540.62393.08-2,295.831,633.93-4,863.10-6,363.97-9,517.94-14,235.01-21,289.86
WACC
PV UFCF -4,546.66-5,562.70-7,778.19-10,876.08-15,207.78
SUM PV UFCF -43,971.40

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.96
Free cash flow (t + 1) -21,715.66
Terminal Value -437,815.63
Present Value of Terminal Value -312,740.62

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -356,712.03
Net Debt 26,596
Equity Value -383,308.03
Shares Outstanding 253.40
Equity Value Per Share -1,512.66