Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG)
$171.83
-0.92 (-0.53%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 7,987 | 9,730 | 9,358 | 15,864 | 33,428 | 49,994.85 | 74,772.20 | 111,829.16 | 167,251.48 | 250,140.99 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 2,080 | 2,359 | 2,525 | -718 | 4,564 | 8,638.75 | 12,920.10 | 19,323.28 | 28,899.86 | 43,222.58 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 1,631 | 1,565 | 1,593 | -1,729 | 3,445 | 5,292.92 | 7,916.08 | 11,839.28 | 17,706.80 | 26,482.26 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 449 | 794 | 932 | 1,011 | 1,119 | 3,345.83 | 5,004.02 | 7,484 | 11,193.06 | 16,740.32 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 981 | 2,474 | 1,628 | 1,404 | 1,353 | 6,799.66 | 10,169.56 | 15,209.57 | 22,747.40 | 34,020.97 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 585 | 491 | 647 | 1,506 | 1,944 | 3,458.96 | 5,173.22 | 7,737.06 | 11,571.53 | 17,306.35 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 316 | 312 | 292 | 706 | 826 | 1,720.29 | 2,572.86 | 3,847.96 | 5,755 | 8,607.17 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 58 | 66 | 35 | 155 | 124 | 312.62 | 467.55 | 699.27 | 1,045.83 | 1,564.14 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -3,643 | -3,056 | -1,839 | -966 | -1,830 | -10,822.38 | -16,185.94 | -24,207.65 | -36,204.92 | -54,148.01 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 171.83 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.968 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 253.40 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 14.84 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.28% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 8.679 |
Total Debt | 27,949 |
Total Equity | 43,541.72 |
Total Capital | 71,490.72 |
Debt Weighting | 39.09 |
Equity Weighting | 60.91 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 7,987 | 9,730 | 9,358 | 15,864 | 33,428 | 49,994.85 | 74,772.20 | 111,829.16 | 167,251.48 | 250,140.99 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 2,080 | 2,359 | 2,525 | -718 | 4,564 | 8,638.75 | 12,920.10 | 19,323.28 | 28,899.86 | 43,222.58 |
EBIT | 1,631 | 1,565 | 1,593 | -1,729 | 3,445 | 5,292.92 | 7,916.08 | 11,839.28 | 17,706.80 | 26,482.26 |
Tax Rate | 61.61% | -72.31% | 7.90% | 31.30% | 14.84% | 8.67% | 8.67% | 8.67% | 8.67% | 8.67% |
EBIAT | 626.08 | 2,696.62 | 1,467.08 | -1,187.83 | 2,933.93 | 4,834.08 | 7,229.84 | 10,812.93 | 16,171.80 | 24,186.52 |
Depreciation | 449 | 794 | 932 | 1,011 | 1,119 | 3,345.83 | 5,004.02 | 7,484 | 11,193.06 | 16,740.32 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 94 | -156 | -859 | -438 | -1,514.96 | -1,714.26 | -2,563.84 | -3,834.47 | -5,734.83 |
Inventories | - | 4 | 20 | -414 | -120 | -894.29 | -852.57 | -1,275.10 | -1,907.04 | -2,852.17 |
Accounts Payable | - | 8 | -31 | 120 | -31 | 188.62 | 154.93 | 231.72 | 346.56 | 518.31 |
Capital Expenditure | -3,643 | -3,056 | -1,839 | -966 | -1,830 | -10,822.38 | -16,185.94 | -24,207.65 | -36,204.92 | -54,148.01 |
UFCF | -2,567.92 | 540.62 | 393.08 | -2,295.83 | 1,633.93 | -4,863.10 | -6,363.97 | -9,517.94 | -14,235.01 | -21,289.86 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | -4,546.66 | -5,562.70 | -7,778.19 | -10,876.08 | -15,207.78 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | -43,971.40 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 6.96 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | -21,715.66 |
Terminal Value | -437,815.63 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | -312,740.62 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | -356,712.03 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 26,596 |
Equity Value | -383,308.03 |
Shares Outstanding | 253.40 |
Equity Value Per Share | -1,512.66 |