Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG)

$157.68

-6.86 (-4.17%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -1,929.27 | 157.68 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 7,9879,7309,35815,86433,42849,994.8574,772.20111,829.16167,251.48250,140.99
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 2,5203,1413,4492885,68311,949.2917,871.3326,728.3339,974.8459,786.29
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 2,0712,3472,517-7234,5648,603.4612,867.3119,244.3328,781.7843,045.97
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 4497949321,0111,1193,345.835,004.027,48411,193.0616,740.32
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 9812,4741,6281,4041,3536,799.6610,169.5615,209.5722,747.4034,020.97
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 5854916471,5061,9443,458.965,173.227,737.0611,571.5317,306.35
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 3163122927068261,720.292,572.863,847.965,7558,607.17
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 586635155124312.62467.55699.271,045.831,564.14
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -3,643-3,056-1,839-966-1,830-10,822.38-16,185.94-24,207.65-36,204.92-54,148.01
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 157.68
Beta 0.962
Diluted Shares Outstanding 253.40
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 53.85
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.32%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.872
Total Debt 27,949
Total Equity 39,956.11
Total Capital 67,905.11
Debt Weighting 41.16
Equity Weighting 58.84
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 7,9879,7309,35815,86433,42849,994.8574,772.20111,829.16167,251.48250,140.99
EBITDA 2,5203,1413,4492885,68311,949.2917,871.3326,728.3339,974.8459,786.29
EBIT 2,0712,3472,517-7234,5648,603.4612,867.3119,244.3328,781.7843,045.97
Tax Rate 61.61%9.37%115.63%-2.85%53.85%47.52%47.52%47.52%47.52%47.52%
EBIAT 794.982,127.07-393.28-743.632,106.464,515.066,752.7110,099.3415,104.5622,590.35
Depreciation 4497949321,0111,1193,345.835,004.027,48411,193.0616,740.32
Accounts Receivable -94-156-859-438-1,514.96-1,714.26-2,563.84-3,834.47-5,734.83
Inventories -420-414-120-894.29-852.57-1,275.10-1,907.04-2,852.17
Accounts Payable -8-31120-31188.62154.93231.72346.56518.31
Capital Expenditure -3,643-3,056-1,839-966-1,830-10,822.38-16,185.94-24,207.65-36,204.92-54,148.01
UFCF -2,399.02-28.93-1,467.28-1,851.63806.46-5,182.13-6,841.10-10,231.53-15,302.26-22,886.03
WACC
PV UFCF -4,880.51-6,067.93-8,546.98-12,038.84-16,957.30
SUM PV UFCF -48,491.56

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.18
Free cash flow (t + 1) -23,343.75
Terminal Value -558,462.90
Present Value of Terminal Value -413,790.69

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -462,282.25
Net Debt 26,596
Equity Value -488,878.25
Shares Outstanding 253.40
Equity Value Per Share -1,929.27