Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Linamar Corporation (LNR.TO)
$64.91
+0.25 (+0.39%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 7,620.58 | 7,416.62 | 5,815.57 | 6,536.57 | 7,917.91 | 8,101.34 | 8,289.02 | 8,481.04 | 8,677.51 | 8,878.54 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 1,166.37 | 1,063.45 | 889.23 | 1,023.17 | 982.52 | 1,182.74 | 1,210.14 | 1,238.17 | 1,266.85 | 1,296.20 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 807.55 | 660.93 | 434.60 | 574.41 | 541.55 | 690.37 | 706.37 | 722.73 | 739.47 | 756.60 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 358.82 | 402.52 | 454.62 | 448.75 | 440.97 | 492.36 | 503.77 | 515.44 | 527.38 | 539.60 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 471.98 | 338.23 | 861.10 | 928.43 | 860.51 | 820.38 | 839.38 | 858.83 | 878.72 | 899.08 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 1,452.72 | 1,153.56 | 963.30 | 937.62 | 1,262 | 1,319.93 | 1,350.51 | 1,381.79 | 1,413.80 | 1,446.56 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 1,218.96 | 991.76 | 864.16 | 1,066.46 | 1,509.30 | 1,289.80 | 1,319.68 | 1,350.25 | 1,381.53 | 1,413.54 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 912.02 | 772.31 | 865.50 | 984.49 | 1,231.47 | 1,099.80 | 1,125.28 | 1,151.35 | 1,178.02 | 1,205.31 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -558.03 | -558.97 | -291.65 | -254.54 | -423.25 | -471.73 | -482.65 | -493.83 | -505.27 | -516.98 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 64.91 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.461 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 63.93 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 24.31 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.64% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 11.494 |
Total Debt | 1,308.37 |
Total Equity | 4,149.87 |
Total Capital | 5,458.24 |
Debt Weighting | 23.97 |
Equity Weighting | 76.03 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 7,620.58 | 7,416.62 | 5,815.57 | 6,536.57 | 7,917.91 | 8,101.34 | 8,289.02 | 8,481.04 | 8,677.51 | 8,878.54 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 1,166.37 | 1,063.45 | 889.23 | 1,023.17 | 982.52 | 1,182.74 | 1,210.14 | 1,238.17 | 1,266.85 | 1,296.20 |
EBIT | 807.55 | 660.93 | 434.60 | 574.41 | 541.55 | 690.37 | 706.37 | 722.73 | 739.47 | 756.60 |
Tax Rate | 22.13% | 23.74% | 25.44% | 25.19% | 24.31% | 24.16% | 24.16% | 24.16% | 24.16% | 24.16% |
EBIAT | 628.86 | 504.05 | 324.03 | 429.72 | 409.89 | 523.57 | 535.70 | 548.11 | 560.81 | 573.80 |
Depreciation | 358.82 | 402.52 | 454.62 | 448.75 | 440.97 | 492.36 | 503.77 | 515.44 | 527.38 | 539.60 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 299.16 | 190.25 | 25.68 | -324.37 | -57.93 | -30.58 | -31.29 | -32.01 | -32.75 |
Inventories | - | 227.20 | 127.60 | -202.30 | -442.85 | 219.50 | -29.88 | -30.57 | -31.28 | -32 |
Accounts Payable | - | -139.71 | 93.19 | 118.99 | 246.98 | -131.67 | 25.48 | 26.07 | 26.67 | 27.29 |
Capital Expenditure | -558.03 | -558.97 | -291.65 | -254.54 | -423.25 | -471.73 | -482.65 | -493.83 | -505.27 | -516.98 |
UFCF | 429.64 | 734.25 | 898.05 | 566.30 | -92.63 | 574.11 | 521.84 | 533.93 | 546.29 | 558.95 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 526.08 | 438.17 | 410.82 | 385.17 | 361.12 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 2,121.36 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 9.13 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 570.13 |
Terminal Value | 7,996.20 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 5,166.10 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 7,287.46 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 447.86 |
Equity Value | 6,839.60 |
Shares Outstanding | 63.93 |
Equity Value Per Share | 106.98 |