Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Linamar Corporation (LNR.TO)
$67.73
+1.33 (+2.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 6,546.46 | 7,620.58 | 7,416.62 | 5,815.57 | 6,536.57 | 6,610.79 | 6,685.85 | 6,761.77 | 6,838.54 | 6,916.19 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 1,041.73 | 1,186.82 | 1,035.65 | 873.15 | 1,029.36 | 1,007.65 | 1,019.09 | 1,030.66 | 1,042.36 | 1,054.20 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 721.95 | 828 | 633.13 | 418.53 | 580.60 | 614.92 | 621.91 | 628.97 | 636.11 | 643.33 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 319.78 | 358.82 | 402.52 | 454.63 | 448.75 | 392.72 | 397.18 | 401.69 | 406.25 | 410.87 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Total Cash | 439.06 | 471.98 | 338.23 | 861.10 | 928.43 | 614.42 | 621.40 | 628.45 | 635.59 | 642.81 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 1,083 | 1,286 | 988 | 888 | 871 | 996.04 | 1,007.35 | 1,018.79 | 1,030.36 | 1,042.05 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 791.67 | 1,218.96 | 991.76 | 864.16 | 1,066.46 | 960.35 | 971.26 | 982.29 | 993.44 | 1,004.72 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 782.44 | 912.02 | 772.31 | 865.50 | 984.49 | 849.84 | 859.49 | 869.25 | 879.12 | 889.10 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -427.40 | -558.03 | -558.97 | -291.65 | -254.54 | -400.58 | -405.13 | -409.72 | -414.38 | -419.08 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 67.73 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.391 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 65.57 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 25.19 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.74% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 10.302 |
Total Debt | 791.54 |
Total Equity | 4,440.94 |
Total Capital | 5,232.49 |
Debt Weighting | 15.13 |
Equity Weighting | 84.87 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 6,546.46 | 7,620.58 | 7,416.62 | 5,815.57 | 6,536.57 | 6,610.79 | 6,685.85 | 6,761.77 | 6,838.54 | 6,916.19 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 1,041.73 | 1,186.82 | 1,035.65 | 873.15 | 1,029.36 | 1,007.65 | 1,019.09 | 1,030.66 | 1,042.36 | 1,054.20 |
EBIT | 721.95 | 828 | 633.13 | 418.53 | 580.60 | 614.92 | 621.91 | 628.97 | 636.11 | 643.33 |
Tax Rate | 20.68% | 22.13% | 23.74% | 25.44% | 25.19% | 23.43% | 23.43% | 23.43% | 23.43% | 23.43% |
EBIAT | 572.69 | 644.79 | 482.85 | 312.05 | 434.35 | 470.82 | 476.17 | 481.57 | 487.04 | 492.57 |
Depreciation | 319.78 | 358.82 | 402.52 | 454.63 | 448.75 | 392.72 | 397.18 | 401.69 | 406.25 | 410.87 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -203 | 298 | 100 | 17 | -125.04 | -11.31 | -11.44 | -11.57 | -11.70 |
Inventories | - | -427.29 | 227.20 | 127.60 | -202.30 | 106.10 | -10.90 | -11.03 | -11.15 | -11.28 |
Accounts Payable | - | 129.58 | -139.71 | 93.19 | 118.99 | -134.64 | 9.65 | 9.76 | 9.87 | 9.98 |
Capital Expenditure | -427.40 | -558.03 | -558.97 | -291.65 | -254.54 | -400.58 | -405.13 | -409.72 | -414.38 | -419.08 |
UFCF | 465.07 | -55.13 | 711.89 | 795.82 | 562.25 | 309.39 | 455.66 | 460.84 | 466.07 | 471.36 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 283.81 | 383.45 | 355.75 | 330.05 | 306.21 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 1,659.28 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 9.01 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 480.79 |
Terminal Value | 6,858.59 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 4,455.57 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 6,114.85 |
---|---|
Net Debt | -136.88 |
Equity Value | 6,251.74 |
Shares Outstanding | 65.57 |
Equity Value Per Share | 95.35 |