Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX)
$54.79
-0.29 (-0.53%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 2,828 | 2,310 | 2,788 | 4,553 | 3,854 | 4,338.93 | 4,884.88 | 5,499.53 | 6,191.51 | 6,970.56 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 653 | 287 | 763 | 1,933 | 1,285 | 1,203.44 | 1,354.87 | 1,525.34 | 1,717.27 | 1,933.35 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 533 | 164 | 652 | 1,814 | 1,153 | 1,033.46 | 1,163.50 | 1,309.89 | 1,474.71 | 1,660.27 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 120 | 123 | 111 | 119 | 132 | 169.98 | 191.37 | 215.45 | 242.56 | 273.08 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 878.40 | 181 | 535 | 358 | 369 | 655.38 | 737.84 | 830.68 | 935.20 | 1,052.88 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 127.60 | 164 | 184 | 191 | 127 | 223.04 | 251.10 | 282.69 | 318.26 | 358.31 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 273 | 265 | 259 | 323 | 337 | 401.38 | 451.89 | 508.74 | 572.76 | 644.83 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 233.30 | 242 | 267 | 338 | 317 | 381.41 | 429.40 | 483.42 | 544.25 | 612.73 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -214.20 | -163 | -77 | -254 | -414 | -292.56 | -329.37 | -370.81 | -417.47 | -470 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 54.79 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.719 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 78 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 5.97 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.61% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 12.667 |
| Total Debt | 395 |
| Total Equity | 4,273.62 |
| Total Capital | 4,668.62 |
| Debt Weighting | 8.46 |
| Equity Weighting | 91.54 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 2,828 | 2,310 | 2,788 | 4,553 | 3,854 | 4,338.93 | 4,884.88 | 5,499.53 | 6,191.51 | 6,970.56 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 653 | 287 | 763 | 1,933 | 1,285 | 1,203.44 | 1,354.87 | 1,525.34 | 1,717.27 | 1,933.35 |
| EBIT | 533 | 164 | 652 | 1,814 | 1,153 | 1,033.46 | 1,163.50 | 1,309.89 | 1,474.71 | 1,660.27 |
| Tax Rate | 24.69% | 56.52% | 19.65% | 23.29% | 5.97% | 26.02% | 26.02% | 26.02% | 26.02% | 26.02% |
| EBIAT | 401.38 | 71.30 | 523.91 | 1,391.58 | 1,084.12 | 764.51 | 860.70 | 969 | 1,090.92 | 1,228.19 |
| Depreciation | 120 | 123 | 111 | 119 | 132 | 169.98 | 191.37 | 215.45 | 242.56 | 273.08 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -36.40 | -20 | -7 | 64 | -96.04 | -28.06 | -31.59 | -35.57 | -40.05 |
| Inventories | - | 8 | 6 | -64 | -14 | -64.38 | -50.50 | -56.86 | -64.01 | -72.07 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 8.70 | 25 | 71 | -21 | 64.41 | 47.99 | 54.03 | 60.83 | 68.48 |
| Capital Expenditure | -214.20 | -163 | -77 | -254 | -414 | -292.56 | -329.37 | -370.81 | -417.47 | -470 |
| UFCF | 307.18 | 11.60 | 568.91 | 1,256.58 | 831.12 | 545.92 | 692.12 | 779.21 | 877.26 | 987.64 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 488.21 | 553.53 | 557.31 | 561.11 | 564.94 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 2,725.10 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 11.82 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 1,007.39 |
| Terminal Value | 10,258.56 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 5,867.98 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 8,593.09 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 26 |
| Equity Value | 8,567.09 |
| Shares Outstanding | 78 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 109.83 |