Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Lam Research Corporation (LRCX)

$494.14

+24.74 (+5.27%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 620.53 | 494.14 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 11,0779,653.5610,044.7414,626.1517,227.0419,578.2822,250.4425,287.3128,738.6732,661.09
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 3,575.572,873.123,020.944,886.555,526.856,171.417,013.727,970.999,058.9210,295.33
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 3,249.182,563.832,752.424,579.405,193.115,667.816,441.397,320.558,319.709,455.22
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 326.40309.28268.53307.15333.74503.59572.33650.44739.22840.11
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 4,949.605,431.206,710.255,729.143,657.738,933.6210,152.9411,538.6713,113.5314,903.34
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 2,176.941,455.522,097.103,026.434,313.823,968.164,509.765,125.275,824.806,619.80
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,876.161,540.141,900.022,689.293,966.293,650.094,148.274,714.455,357.916,089.19
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 510.98376.56592.39829.71864.97983.031,117.201,269.681,442.971,639.92
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -273.47-303.49-203.24-349.10-546.03-516.57-587.07-667.20-758.26-861.76
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 494.14
Beta 1.340
Diluted Shares Outstanding 140.63
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 11.32
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.43%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.109
Total Debt 4,998.45
Total Equity 69,489.92
Total Capital 74,488.37
Debt Weighting 6.71
Equity Weighting 93.29
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 11,0779,653.5610,044.7414,626.1517,227.0419,578.2822,250.4425,287.3128,738.6732,661.09
EBITDA 3,575.572,873.123,020.944,886.555,526.856,171.417,013.727,970.999,058.9210,295.33
EBIT 3,249.182,563.832,752.424,579.405,193.115,667.816,441.397,320.558,319.709,455.22
Tax Rate 24.47%10.43%12.55%10.58%11.32%13.87%13.87%13.87%13.87%13.87%
EBIAT 2,454.242,296.462,406.924,094.994,605.294,881.755,548.046,305.277,165.858,143.89
Depreciation 326.40309.28268.53307.15333.74503.59572.33650.44739.22840.11
Accounts Receivable -721.41-641.58-929.33-1,287.39345.66-541.60-615.52-699.53-795
Inventories -336.02-359.88-789.27-1,277316.21-498.18-566.18-643.46-731.28
Accounts Payable --134.42215.83237.3235.26118.06134.17152.48173.29196.94
Capital Expenditure -273.47-303.49-203.24-349.10-546.03-516.57-587.07-667.20-758.26-861.76
UFCF 2,507.173,225.271,686.572,571.771,863.865,648.704,627.685,259.305,977.126,792.91
WACC
PV UFCF 5,191.823,909.364,083.584,265.564,455.65
SUM PV UFCF 21,905.98

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.80
Free cash flow (t + 1) 6,928.77
Terminal Value 101,893.63
Present Value of Terminal Value 66,834.79

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 88,740.77
Net Debt 1,476.45
Equity Value 87,264.32
Shares Outstanding 140.63
Equity Value Per Share 620.53