Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Lam Research Corporation (LRCX)
$394.83
-31.32 (-7.35%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 11,077 | 9,653.56 | 10,044.74 | 14,626.15 | 16,420.87 | 18,435.81 | 20,698 | 23,237.77 | 26,089.19 | 29,290.49 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 3,575.57 | 2,873.12 | 3,020.94 | 4,886.55 | 5,153.12 | 5,785.44 | 6,495.35 | 7,292.36 | 8,187.18 | 9,191.80 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 3,249.18 | 2,563.83 | 2,752.42 | 4,579.40 | 4,704.68 | 5,281.97 | 5,930.10 | 6,657.76 | 7,474.71 | 8,391.90 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 326.40 | 309.28 | 268.53 | 307.15 | 448.44 | 503.47 | 565.25 | 634.61 | 712.48 | 799.90 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 4,949.60 | 5,431.20 | 6,710.25 | 5,729.14 | 4,354.79 | 8,607.26 | 9,663.43 | 10,849.19 | 12,180.45 | 13,675.07 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 2,176.94 | 1,455.52 | 2,097.10 | 3,026.43 | 3,702.32 | 3,644.62 | 4,091.84 | 4,593.93 | 5,157.64 | 5,790.51 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 1,876.16 | 1,540.14 | 1,900.02 | 2,689.29 | 3,479.33 | 3,369.42 | 3,782.87 | 4,247.05 | 4,768.19 | 5,353.28 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 510.98 | 376.56 | 592.39 | 829.71 | 824.49 | 925.66 | 1,039.25 | 1,166.77 | 1,309.94 | 1,470.68 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -273.47 | -303.49 | -203.24 | -349.10 | -411.46 | -461.94 | -518.63 | -582.27 | -653.71 | -733.93 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 394.83 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.269 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 145.32 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 10.58 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.47% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 8.879 |
Total Debt | 5,000.66 |
Total Equity | 57,376.70 |
Total Capital | 62,377.35 |
Debt Weighting | 8.02 |
Equity Weighting | 91.98 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 11,077 | 9,653.56 | 10,044.74 | 14,626.15 | 16,420.87 | 18,435.81 | 20,698 | 23,237.77 | 26,089.19 | 29,290.49 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 3,575.57 | 2,873.12 | 3,020.94 | 4,886.55 | 5,153.12 | 5,785.44 | 6,495.35 | 7,292.36 | 8,187.18 | 9,191.80 |
EBIT | 3,249.18 | 2,563.83 | 2,752.42 | 4,579.40 | 4,704.68 | 5,281.97 | 5,930.10 | 6,657.76 | 7,474.71 | 8,391.90 |
Tax Rate | 24.47% | 10.43% | 12.55% | 10.58% | 14.51% | 14.51% | 14.51% | 14.51% | 14.51% | 14.51% |
EBIAT | 2,454.24 | 2,296.46 | 2,406.92 | 4,094.99 | 4,022.21 | 4,515.75 | 5,069.87 | 5,691.97 | 6,390.41 | 7,174.55 |
Depreciation | 326.40 | 309.28 | 268.53 | 307.15 | 448.44 | 503.47 | 565.25 | 634.61 | 712.48 | 799.90 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 721.41 | -641.58 | -929.33 | -675.89 | 57.70 | -447.22 | -502.09 | -563.70 | -632.87 |
Inventories | - | 336.02 | -359.88 | -789.27 | -790.04 | 109.91 | -413.45 | -464.18 | -521.14 | -585.09 |
Accounts Payable | - | -134.42 | 215.83 | 237.32 | -5.22 | 101.17 | 113.58 | 127.52 | 143.17 | 160.74 |
Capital Expenditure | -273.47 | -303.49 | -203.24 | -349.10 | -411.46 | -461.94 | -518.63 | -582.27 | -653.71 | -733.93 |
UFCF | 2,507.17 | 3,225.27 | 1,686.57 | 2,571.77 | 2,588.05 | 4,826.06 | 4,369.40 | 4,905.56 | 5,507.50 | 6,183.30 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 2,588.05 | 4,446.75 | 3,709.56 | 3,837.42 | 3,969.68 | 4,106.50 | ||||
SUM PV UFCF | 20,069.90 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 8.53 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 6,306.97 |
Terminal Value | 96,584.51 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 64,144.36 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 84,214.26 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 805.94 |
Equity Value | 83,408.32 |
Shares Outstanding | 145.32 |
Equity Value Per Share | 573.96 |