Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Lam Research Corporation (LRCX)

$394.83

-31.32 (-7.35%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 573.96 | 394.83 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 11,0779,653.5610,044.7414,626.1516,420.8718,435.8120,69823,237.7726,089.1929,290.49
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 3,575.572,873.123,020.944,886.555,153.125,785.446,495.357,292.368,187.189,191.80
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 3,249.182,563.832,752.424,579.404,704.685,281.975,930.106,657.767,474.718,391.90
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 326.40309.28268.53307.15448.44503.47565.25634.61712.48799.90
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 4,949.605,431.206,710.255,729.144,354.798,607.269,663.4310,849.1912,180.4513,675.07
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 2,176.941,455.522,097.103,026.433,702.323,644.624,091.844,593.935,157.645,790.51
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,876.161,540.141,900.022,689.293,479.333,369.423,782.874,247.054,768.195,353.28
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 510.98376.56592.39829.71824.49925.661,039.251,166.771,309.941,470.68
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -273.47-303.49-203.24-349.10-411.46-461.94-518.63-582.27-653.71-733.93
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 394.83
Beta 1.269
Diluted Shares Outstanding 145.32
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 10.58
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.47%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.879
Total Debt 5,000.66
Total Equity 57,376.70
Total Capital 62,377.35
Debt Weighting 8.02
Equity Weighting 91.98
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 11,0779,653.5610,044.7414,626.1516,420.8718,435.8120,69823,237.7726,089.1929,290.49
EBITDA 3,575.572,873.123,020.944,886.555,153.125,785.446,495.357,292.368,187.189,191.80
EBIT 3,249.182,563.832,752.424,579.404,704.685,281.975,930.106,657.767,474.718,391.90
Tax Rate 24.47%10.43%12.55%10.58%14.51%14.51%14.51%14.51%14.51%14.51%
EBIAT 2,454.242,296.462,406.924,094.994,022.214,515.755,069.875,691.976,390.417,174.55
Depreciation 326.40309.28268.53307.15448.44503.47565.25634.61712.48799.90
Accounts Receivable -721.41-641.58-929.33-675.8957.70-447.22-502.09-563.70-632.87
Inventories -336.02-359.88-789.27-790.04109.91-413.45-464.18-521.14-585.09
Accounts Payable --134.42215.83237.32-5.22101.17113.58127.52143.17160.74
Capital Expenditure -273.47-303.49-203.24-349.10-411.46-461.94-518.63-582.27-653.71-733.93
UFCF 2,507.173,225.271,686.572,571.772,588.054,826.064,369.404,905.565,507.506,183.30
WACC
PV UFCF 2,588.054,446.753,709.563,837.423,969.684,106.50
SUM PV UFCF 20,069.90

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.53
Free cash flow (t + 1) 6,306.97
Terminal Value 96,584.51
Present Value of Terminal Value 64,144.36

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 84,214.26
Net Debt 805.94
Equity Value 83,408.32
Shares Outstanding 145.32
Equity Value Per Share 573.96