Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Luna Innovations Incorporated (LUNA)

$4.57

-0.07 (-1.51%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -76.38 | 4.57 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 46.2442.9270.5282.6887.51105.06126.14151.43181.80218.26
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 17.0512.386.206.661.0817.6121.1425.3830.4736.58
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 14.5211.163.703.69-3.5513.2515.9119.1022.9327.53
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 2.531.222.502.974.634.365.236.287.549.05
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 36.9842.4625.0115.3717.1353.0663.7176.4891.82110.24
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 13.8617.9621.533220.9134.6641.6149.9659.9872
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 6.956.8710.2923.6022.4920.9925.2030.2536.3243.61
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 2.962.402.794.392.815.146.177.418.9010.68
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1.85-0.76-0.81-1.06-1.41-2.06-2.48-2.97-3.57-4.29
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 4.57
Beta 1.266
Diluted Shares Outstanding 33.50
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 145.03
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.00%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.671
Total Debt 21.45
Total Equity 153.10
Total Capital 174.55
Debt Weighting 12.29
Equity Weighting 87.71
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 46.2442.9270.5282.6887.51105.06126.14151.43181.80218.26
EBITDA 17.0512.386.206.661.0817.6121.1425.3830.4736.58
EBIT 14.5211.163.703.69-3.5513.2515.9119.1022.9327.53
Tax Rate 4,471.03%-755.94%-44.86%35.15%145.03%770.08%770.08%770.08%770.08%770.08%
EBIAT -634.7695.525.362.391.60-88.79-106.60-127.98-153.64-184.46
Depreciation 2.531.222.502.974.634.365.236.287.549.05
Accounts Receivable --4.10-3.57-10.4711.08-13.75-6.95-8.35-10.02-12.03
Inventories -0.08-3.42-13.301.101.50-4.21-5.05-6.07-7.28
Accounts Payable --0.570.391.61-1.582.331.031.241.491.78
Capital Expenditure -1.85-0.76-0.81-1.06-1.41-2.06-2.48-2.97-3.57-4.29
UFCF -634.0891.390.45-17.8615.42-96.41-113.97-136.83-164.27-197.22
WACC
PV UFCF -88.77-96.62-106.80-118.06-130.50
SUM PV UFCF -540.74

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.61
Free cash flow (t + 1) -201.16
Terminal Value -3,043.33
Present Value of Terminal Value -2,013.73

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -2,554.47
Net Debt 4.32
Equity Value -2,558.79
Shares Outstanding 33.50
Equity Value Per Share -76.38