Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Lifeway Foods, Inc. (LWAY)

$6.68

+0.06 (+0.91%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 1.68 | 6.68 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 118.89103.3593.66102.03119.07120.01120.97121.93122.90123.88
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 2.550.444.828.198.615.515.565.605.645.69
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -0.56-3.041.484.955.731.881.891.911.931.94
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 3.113.483.343.242.873.633.663.693.723.75
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 4.9833.847.939.236.416.466.516.566.62
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 11.029.027.378.039.9310.1010.1810.2610.3510.43
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 7.705.826.396.938.287.847.917.978.038.10
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 6.854.575.285.596.616.456.506.556.606.65
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -5.34-2.82-1.18-1.90-1.92-2.87-2.89-2.92-2.94-2.96
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 6.68
Beta 1.529
Diluted Shares Outstanding 15.77
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 41.04
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.39%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.919
Total Debt 2.86
Total Equity 105.36
Total Capital 108.23
Debt Weighting 2.64
Equity Weighting 97.36
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 118.89103.3593.66102.03119.07120.01120.97121.93122.90123.88
EBITDA 2.550.444.828.198.615.515.565.605.645.69
EBIT -0.56-3.041.484.955.731.881.891.911.931.94
Tax Rate 56.97%6.80%63.32%33.06%41.04%40.24%40.24%40.24%40.24%40.24%
EBIAT -0.24-2.830.543.313.381.121.131.141.151.16
Depreciation 3.113.483.343.242.873.633.663.693.723.75
Accounts Receivable -21.65-0.66-1.90-0.17-0.08-0.08-0.08-0.08
Inventories -1.88-0.57-0.54-1.360.44-0.06-0.06-0.06-0.06
Accounts Payable --2.280.710.311.02-0.170.050.050.050.05
Capital Expenditure -5.34-2.82-1.18-1.90-1.92-2.87-2.89-2.92-2.94-2.96
UFCF -2.47-0.584.493.772.101.991.811.821.841.85
WACC
PV UFCF 1.801.481.351.231.12
SUM PV UFCF 6.96

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.69
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1.89
Terminal Value 21.76
Present Value of Terminal Value 13.09

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 20.05
Net Debt -6.37
Equity Value 26.42
Shares Outstanding 15.77
Equity Value Per Share 1.68