Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Luxfer Holdings PLC (LXFR)

$14.62

-0.39 (-2.60%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 12.12 | 14.62 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 441.30487.90443.50324.80374.10364.63355.40346.40337.63329.08
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 37.2054.5029.8045.205439.8738.8637.8836.9235.98
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 18.2035.5014.5031.9038.4025.3524.7024.0823.4722.88
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 191915.3013.3015.6014.5214.1613.8013.4513.11
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 14.9013.8010.201.506.207.757.557.367.176.99
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 72.1062.6067.1038.7048.2050.3949.1147.8746.6645.48
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 82.2093.6094.5068.8090.5076.2074.2772.3970.5668.77
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 28.4036.9036.4018.6031.7026.5525.8825.2224.5823.96
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -11.30-13.90-13.90-8-9.10-9.80-9.55-9.31-9.08-8.85
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 14.62
Beta 0.922
Diluted Shares Outstanding 28.03
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 15.54
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.62%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.237
Total Debt 72.40
Total Equity 409.85
Total Capital 482.25
Debt Weighting 15.01
Equity Weighting 84.99
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 441.30487.90443.50324.80374.10364.63355.40346.40337.63329.08
EBITDA 37.2054.5029.8045.205439.8738.8637.8836.9235.98
EBIT 18.2035.5014.5031.9038.4025.3524.7024.0823.4722.88
Tax Rate 3.36%16.94%65.93%28.06%15.54%25.97%25.97%25.97%25.97%25.97%
EBIAT 17.5929.494.9422.9532.4318.7618.2917.8317.3816.94
Depreciation 191915.3013.3015.6014.5214.1613.8013.4513.11
Accounts Receivable -9.50-4.5028.40-9.50-2.191.281.241.211.18
Inventories --11.40-0.9025.70-21.7014.301.931.881.831.79
Accounts Payable -8.50-0.50-17.8013.10-5.15-0.67-0.66-0.64-0.62
Capital Expenditure -11.30-13.90-13.90-8-9.10-9.80-9.55-9.31-9.08-8.85
UFCF 25.2941.190.4464.5520.8330.4425.4224.7824.1523.54
WACC
PV UFCF 28.3121.9819.9318.0616.37
SUM PV UFCF 104.65

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.54
Free cash flow (t + 1) 24.01
Terminal Value 433.45
Present Value of Terminal Value 301.36

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 406.01
Net Debt 66.20
Equity Value 339.81
Shares Outstanding 28.03
Equity Value Per Share 12.12