Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Luxfer Holdings PLC (LXFR)
$16.42
+0.21 (+1.30%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 441.30 | 487.90 | 443.50 | 324.80 | 374.10 | 364.63 | 355.40 | 346.40 | 337.63 | 329.08 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 37.20 | 54.50 | 29.80 | 45.20 | 54 | 39.87 | 38.86 | 37.88 | 36.92 | 35.98 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 18.20 | 35.50 | 14.50 | 31.90 | 38.40 | 25.35 | 24.70 | 24.08 | 23.47 | 22.88 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 19 | 19 | 15.30 | 13.30 | 15.60 | 14.52 | 14.16 | 13.80 | 13.45 | 13.11 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 14.90 | 13.80 | 10.20 | 1.50 | 6.20 | 7.75 | 7.55 | 7.36 | 7.17 | 6.99 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 72.10 | 62.60 | 67.10 | 38.70 | 48.20 | 50.39 | 49.11 | 47.87 | 46.66 | 45.48 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 82.20 | 93.60 | 94.50 | 68.80 | 90.50 | 76.20 | 74.27 | 72.39 | 70.56 | 68.77 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 28.40 | 36.90 | 36.40 | 18.60 | 31.70 | 26.55 | 25.88 | 25.22 | 24.58 | 23.96 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -11.30 | -13.90 | -13.90 | -8 | -9.10 | -9.80 | -9.55 | -9.31 | -9.08 | -8.85 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 16.42 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.941 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 28.03 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 15.54 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.62% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 7.205 |
| Total Debt | 72.40 |
| Total Equity | 460.31 |
| Total Capital | 532.71 |
| Debt Weighting | 13.59 |
| Equity Weighting | 86.41 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 441.30 | 487.90 | 443.50 | 324.80 | 374.10 | 364.63 | 355.40 | 346.40 | 337.63 | 329.08 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 37.20 | 54.50 | 29.80 | 45.20 | 54 | 39.87 | 38.86 | 37.88 | 36.92 | 35.98 |
| EBIT | 18.20 | 35.50 | 14.50 | 31.90 | 38.40 | 25.35 | 24.70 | 24.08 | 23.47 | 22.88 |
| Tax Rate | 3.36% | 16.94% | 65.93% | 28.06% | 15.54% | 25.97% | 25.97% | 25.97% | 25.97% | 25.97% |
| EBIAT | 17.59 | 29.49 | 4.94 | 22.95 | 32.43 | 18.76 | 18.29 | 17.83 | 17.38 | 16.94 |
| Depreciation | 19 | 19 | 15.30 | 13.30 | 15.60 | 14.52 | 14.16 | 13.80 | 13.45 | 13.11 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 9.50 | -4.50 | 28.40 | -9.50 | -2.19 | 1.28 | 1.24 | 1.21 | 1.18 |
| Inventories | - | -11.40 | -0.90 | 25.70 | -21.70 | 14.30 | 1.93 | 1.88 | 1.83 | 1.79 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 8.50 | -0.50 | -17.80 | 13.10 | -5.15 | -0.67 | -0.66 | -0.64 | -0.62 |
| Capital Expenditure | -11.30 | -13.90 | -13.90 | -8 | -9.10 | -9.80 | -9.55 | -9.31 | -9.08 | -8.85 |
| UFCF | 25.29 | 41.19 | 0.44 | 64.55 | 20.83 | 30.44 | 25.42 | 24.78 | 24.15 | 23.54 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 28.53 | 22.32 | 20.39 | 18.62 | 17.01 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 106.87 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 6.72 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 24.01 |
| Terminal Value | 508.75 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 367.51 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 474.38 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 66.20 |
| Equity Value | 408.18 |
| Shares Outstanding | 28.03 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 14.56 |