Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

LSB Industries, Inc. (LXU)

$14.67

+0.04 (+0.27%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -5.33 | 14.67 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 427.50378.16365.07351.32556.24611.25671.70738.13811.13891.35
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 36.4345.2131.6255.3088.3774.2881.6389.7098.58108.32
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -32.71-27.42-37.95-15.54-15.37-39.72-43.64-47.96-52.70-57.91
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 69.1472.6369.5770.84103.74114125.27137.66151.28166.24
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 33.6226.0522.7916.2682.1449.3854.2659.6365.5372.01
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 59.5766.6939.9442.5586.4385.7794.25103.58113.82125.08
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 5753.794851.6558.0980.5088.4697.21106.82117.39
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 55.9962.5958.4846.5549.4682.9091.09100.10110120.88
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -35.42-37.05-36.08-30.47-50.95-55.99-61.53-67.61-74.30-81.65
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 14.67
Beta 1.713
Diluted Shares Outstanding 36.61
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -11.69
After-tax Cost of Debt 8.82%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.597
Total Debt 559.93
Total Equity 537.12
Total Capital 1,097.04
Debt Weighting 51.04
Equity Weighting 48.96
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 427.50378.16365.07351.32556.24611.25671.70738.13811.13891.35
EBITDA 36.4345.2131.6255.3088.3774.2881.6389.7098.58108.32
EBIT -32.71-27.42-37.95-15.54-15.37-39.72-43.64-47.96-52.70-57.91
Tax Rate 58.88%-2.47%24.81%7.12%-11.69%15.33%15.33%15.33%15.33%15.33%
EBIAT -13.45-28.10-28.54-14.44-17.17-33.63-36.95-40.61-44.62-49.04
Depreciation 69.1472.6369.5770.84103.74114125.27137.66151.28166.24
Accounts Receivable --7.1226.75-2.61-43.880.66-8.48-9.32-10.24-11.26
Inventories -3.215.79-3.65-6.44-22.41-7.96-8.75-9.61-10.56
Accounts Payable -6.60-4.11-11.932.9133.448.209.019.9010.88
Capital Expenditure -35.42-37.05-36.08-30.47-50.95-55.99-61.53-67.61-74.30-81.65
UFCF 20.2710.1633.387.75-11.7936.0618.5520.3822.4024.61
WACC
PV UFCF 32.7315.2815.2415.2015.16
SUM PV UFCF 93.61

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.18
Free cash flow (t + 1) 25.11
Terminal Value 306.91
Present Value of Terminal Value 189.02

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 282.62
Net Debt 477.78
Equity Value -195.16
Shares Outstanding 36.61
Equity Value Per Share -5.33