Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

LSB Industries, Inc. (LXU)

$7.7

+0.34 (+4.62%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -25.30 | 7.7 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 378.16365.07351.32556.24901.711,156.921,484.351,904.462,443.473,135.03
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -21.47-37.95-15.5498.63316.4674.8095.97123.14157.99202.70
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -94.10-107.53-86.3928.68248.44-106.94-137.20-176.04-225.86-289.78
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 72.6369.5770.8469.9468.02181.74233.18299.17383.85492.48
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 26.0522.7916.2682.14394.32176.45226.39290.46372.67478.15
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 66.6939.9442.5586.4374.79149.29191.55245.76315.31404.55
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 53.794851.6558.0971.71139.91179.51230.31295.50379.13
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 62.5958.4846.5549.4678.18146.65188.16241.41309.74397.40
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -37.05-36.08-30.47-35.13-45.83-91.98-118.01-151.41-194.27-249.25
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 7.7
Beta 1.098
Diluted Shares Outstanding 86.03
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 14.53
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.38%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.487
Total Debt 743.28
Total Equity 662.39
Total Capital 1,405.68
Debt Weighting 52.88
Equity Weighting 47.12
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 378.16365.07351.32556.24901.711,156.921,484.351,904.462,443.473,135.03
EBITDA -21.47-37.95-15.5498.63316.4674.8095.97123.14157.99202.70
EBIT -94.10-107.53-86.3928.68248.44-106.94-137.20-176.04-225.86-289.78
Tax Rate -2.47%24.81%7.12%-11.69%14.53%6.46%6.46%6.46%6.46%6.46%
EBIAT -96.42-80.85-80.2332.03212.33-100.03-128.34-164.66-211.26-271.06
Depreciation 72.6369.5770.8469.9468.02181.74233.18299.17383.85492.48
Accounts Receivable -26.75-2.61-43.8811.63-74.50-42.25-54.21-69.56-89.24
Inventories -5.79-3.65-6.44-13.62-68.20-39.60-50.81-65.18-83.63
Accounts Payable --4.11-11.932.9128.7268.4741.5153.2568.3387.66
Capital Expenditure -37.05-36.08-30.47-35.13-45.83-91.98-118.01-151.41-194.27-249.25
UFCF -60.84-18.93-58.0419.44261.25-84.50-53.52-68.66-88.10-113.03
WACC
PV UFCF -78.73-46.47-55.55-66.41-79.40
SUM PV UFCF -326.56

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.32
Free cash flow (t + 1) -113.60
Terminal Value -1,665.65
Present Value of Terminal Value -1,169.99

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -1,496.55
Net Debt 679.52
Equity Value -2,176.06
Shares Outstanding 86.03
Equity Value Per Share -25.30