Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Macy's, Inc. (M)

$23.65

+0.23 (+0.98%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -8.09 | 23.65 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 24,83725,73925,33118,09725,29226,129.5826,994.9027,888.8828,812.4729,766.63
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 2,8392,6601,919-3,5432,9991,129.861,167.281,205.941,245.871,287.13
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,8481,698938-4,5022,12566.1268.3170.5872.9175.33
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 9919629819598741,063.741,098.971,135.361,172.961,211.81
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 1,4551,1626851,6791,7121,521.981,572.381,624.451,678.251,733.83
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 363400409276297383.04395.72408.83422.37436.36
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 5,1785,2635,1883,7744,3835,223.845,396.835,575.565,760.205,950.96
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 2,3252,6382,6592,8563,2803,075.833,177.693,282.933,391.643,503.96
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -760-932-1,157-466-597-845.76-873.76-902.70-932.60-963.48
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 23.65
Beta 1.769
Diluted Shares Outstanding 314
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.37
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.90%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.040
Total Debt 6,826
Total Equity 7,426.10
Total Capital 14,252.10
Debt Weighting 47.89
Equity Weighting 52.11
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 24,83725,73925,33118,09725,29226,129.5826,994.9027,888.8828,812.4729,766.63
EBITDA 2,8392,6601,919-3,5432,9991,129.861,167.281,205.941,245.871,287.13
EBIT 1,8481,698938-4,5022,12566.1268.3170.5872.9175.33
Tax Rate -2.65%21.97%22.53%17.66%23.37%16.57%16.57%16.57%16.57%16.57%
EBIAT 1,897.051,324.92726.69-3,706.871,628.4855.1656.9958.8860.8362.84
Depreciation 9919629819598741,063.741,098.971,135.361,172.961,211.81
Accounts Receivable --37-9133-21-86.04-12.68-13.11-13.54-13.99
Inventories --85751,414-609-840.84-173-178.72-184.64-190.76
Accounts Payable -31321197424-204.17101.86105.23108.72112.32
Capital Expenditure -760-932-1,157-466-597-845.76-873.76-902.70-932.60-963.48
UFCF 2,128.051,545.92637.69-1,469.871,699.48-857.90198.38204.94211.73218.74
WACC
PV UFCF -796.86171.15164.24157.60151.24
SUM PV UFCF -152.63

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.66
Free cash flow (t + 1) 223.12
Terminal Value 3,942.02
Present Value of Terminal Value 2,725.50

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 2,572.88
Net Debt 5,114
Equity Value -2,541.12
Shares Outstanding 314
Equity Value Per Share -8.09