Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Macy's, Inc. (M)

$18.01

+0.57 (+3.27%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 24.43 | 18.01 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 25,73925,33118,09725,29225,30525,916.5226,542.8127,184.2427,841.1728,513.97
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 2,3982,116-323,1332,5202,064.982,114.882,165.992,218.332,271.94
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,4361,135-9912,2591,6631,041.181,066.341,092.111,118.501,145.53
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 9629819598748571,023.791,048.541,073.871,099.831,126.40
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 1,1626851,6791,7128621,382.491,415.891,450.111,485.151,521.04
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 400409276297300365.61374.45383.49392.76402.25
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 5,2635,1883,7744,3834,2674,974.655,094.875,217.995,344.095,473.23
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 5,0215,1304,9055,3084,8035,537.355,671.165,808.215,948.576,092.32
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -932-1,157-466-597-1,295-945.51-968.36-991.76-1,015.73-1,040.28
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 18.01
Beta 2.187
Diluted Shares Outstanding 281.10
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 22.46
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.22%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 14.482
Total Debt 6,397
Total Equity 5,062.61
Total Capital 11,459.61
Debt Weighting 55.82
Equity Weighting 44.18
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 25,73925,33118,09725,29225,30525,916.5226,542.8127,184.2427,841.1728,513.97
EBITDA 2,3982,116-323,1332,5202,064.982,114.882,165.992,218.332,271.94
EBIT 1,4361,135-9912,2591,6631,041.181,066.341,092.111,118.501,145.53
Tax Rate 21.97%22.53%17.66%23.37%22.46%21.60%21.60%21.60%21.60%21.60%
EBIAT 1,120.48879.31-815.971,731.171,289.43816.31836.03856.24876.93898.12
Depreciation 9629819598748571,023.791,048.541,073.871,099.831,126.40
Accounts Receivable --9133-21-3-65.61-8.84-9.05-9.27-9.49
Inventories -751,414-609116-707.65-120.22-123.12-126.10-129.14
Accounts Payable -109-225403-505734.35133.81137.05140.36143.75
Capital Expenditure -932-1,157-466-597-1,295-945.51-968.36-991.76-1,015.73-1,040.28
UFCF 1,150.48878.31999.031,781.17459.43855.67920.97943.23966.02989.36
WACC
PV UFCF 790.83786.67744.62704.82667.14
SUM PV UFCF 3,694.07

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.20
Free cash flow (t + 1) 994.31
Terminal Value 12,913.14
Present Value of Terminal Value 8,707.54

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 12,401.61
Net Debt 5,535
Equity Value 6,866.61
Shares Outstanding 281.10
Equity Value Per Share 24.43