Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Manz AG (M5Z.DE)

23.85 €

+0.50 (+2.14%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -1.95 | 23.85 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 324.97296.92264.40236.77227.06207.68189.96173.75158.92145.36
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 11.209.879.5119.4618.8411.1710.219.348.547.81
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1.31-3.03-7.337.33-15.52-2.96-2.71-2.48-2.27-2.07
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 9.9012.9016.8412.1334.3514.1312.9211.8210.819.89
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 72.2151.0144.0169.7436.0942.1138.5235.2332.2329.48
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 56.6738.4624.6318.9924.8324.3722.2920.3918.6517.05
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 117.5169.6857.414766.3754.1749.5545.3241.4537.92
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -15.21-11.53-8.89-9.66-14.86-9.37-8.57-7.84-7.17-6.56
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 23.85
Beta 1.241
Diluted Shares Outstanding 107.49
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -27.47
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.72%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.393
Total Debt 54.92
Total Equity 2,563.54
Total Capital 2,618.46
Debt Weighting 2.10
Equity Weighting 97.90
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 324.97296.92264.40236.77227.06207.68189.96173.75158.92145.36
EBITDA 11.209.879.5119.4618.8411.1710.219.348.547.81
EBIT 1.31-3.03-7.337.33-15.52-2.96-2.71-2.48-2.27-2.07
Tax Rate -2,981.37%-58.24%-11.28%30.92%-27.47%-609.49%-609.49%-609.49%-609.49%-609.49%
EBIAT 40.30-4.79-8.165.06-19.78-21.01-19.22-17.58-16.08-14.71
Depreciation 9.9012.9016.8412.1334.3514.1312.9211.8210.819.89
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories -18.2113.845.64-5.840.462.081.901.741.59
Accounts Payable --47.83-12.28-10.4119.37-12.20-4.62-4.23-3.87-3.54
Capital Expenditure -15.21-11.53-8.89-9.66-14.86-9.37-8.57-7.84-7.17-6.56
UFCF 34.99-33.041.352.7613.25-27.99-17.41-15.92-14.56-13.32
WACC
PV UFCF -25.61-14.58-12.20-10.22-8.55
SUM PV UFCF -71.17

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.27
Free cash flow (t + 1) -13.59
Terminal Value -186.91
Present Value of Terminal Value -119.98

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -191.15
Net Debt 18.84
Equity Value -209.99
Shares Outstanding 107.49
Equity Value Per Share -1.95