Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Manchester United plc (MANU)

$22.78

+0.15 (+0.66%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -6.12 | 22.78 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 590.02627.12509.04494.12583.20586.93590.68594.45598.25602.07
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 197.75190.15142.86135.54102.07160.62161.65162.68163.72164.77
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 48.6149.271.34-3.81-63.715.485.515.555.585.62
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 149.13140.88141.51139.36165.78155.15156.14157.14158.14159.15
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 242.02307.6451.54110.66121.22168.31169.38170.47171.55172.65
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 168.8665.21163.4092.4891.61123.89124.68125.48126.28127.09
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1.422.132.192.082.202.122.142.152.162.18
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 268119.21105.92192.66220.59190.23191.44192.66193.90195.13
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -168.22-191.91-241.87-144.43-123.74-184.38-185.56-186.75-187.94-189.14
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 22.78
Beta 0.691
Diluted Shares Outstanding 162.94
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 22.80
After-tax Cost of Debt 10.35%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.779
Total Debt 640.55
Total Equity 3,711.75
Total Capital 4,352.30
Debt Weighting 14.72
Equity Weighting 85.28
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 590.02627.12509.04494.12583.20586.93590.68594.45598.25602.07
EBITDA 197.75190.15142.86135.54102.07160.62161.65162.68163.72164.77
EBIT 48.6149.271.34-3.81-63.715.485.515.555.585.62
Tax Rate 242.81%31.28%-11.60%-283.80%22.80%0.30%0.30%0.30%0.30%0.30%
EBIAT -69.4333.861.50-14.63-49.185.465.495.535.565.60
Depreciation 149.13140.88141.51139.36165.78155.15156.14157.14158.14159.15
Accounts Receivable -103.65-98.1970.920.87-32.28-0.79-0.80-0.80-0.81
Inventories --0.71-0.060.11-0.120.08-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.01
Accounts Payable --148.79-13.2986.7427.93-30.361.221.221.231.24
Capital Expenditure -168.22-191.91-241.87-144.43-123.74-184.38-185.56-186.75-187.94-189.14
UFCF -88.51-63.03-210.39138.0721.53-86.34-23.52-23.67-23.82-23.97
WACC
PV UFCF -80.46-20.42-19.15-17.96-16.85
SUM PV UFCF -154.84

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.31
Free cash flow (t + 1) -24.45
Terminal Value -460.45
Present Value of Terminal Value -323.58

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -478.42
Net Debt 519.33
Equity Value -997.75
Shares Outstanding 162.94
Equity Value Per Share -6.12