Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Manchester United plc (MANU)
$22.78
+0.15 (+0.66%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 590.02 | 627.12 | 509.04 | 494.12 | 583.20 | 586.93 | 590.68 | 594.45 | 598.25 | 602.07 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 197.75 | 190.15 | 142.86 | 135.54 | 102.07 | 160.62 | 161.65 | 162.68 | 163.72 | 164.77 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 48.61 | 49.27 | 1.34 | -3.81 | -63.71 | 5.48 | 5.51 | 5.55 | 5.58 | 5.62 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 149.13 | 140.88 | 141.51 | 139.36 | 165.78 | 155.15 | 156.14 | 157.14 | 158.14 | 159.15 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 242.02 | 307.64 | 51.54 | 110.66 | 121.22 | 168.31 | 169.38 | 170.47 | 171.55 | 172.65 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 168.86 | 65.21 | 163.40 | 92.48 | 91.61 | 123.89 | 124.68 | 125.48 | 126.28 | 127.09 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 1.42 | 2.13 | 2.19 | 2.08 | 2.20 | 2.12 | 2.14 | 2.15 | 2.16 | 2.18 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 268 | 119.21 | 105.92 | 192.66 | 220.59 | 190.23 | 191.44 | 192.66 | 193.90 | 195.13 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -168.22 | -191.91 | -241.87 | -144.43 | -123.74 | -184.38 | -185.56 | -186.75 | -187.94 | -189.14 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 22.78 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.691 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 162.94 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 22.80 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 10.35% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 6.779 |
| Total Debt | 640.55 |
| Total Equity | 3,711.75 |
| Total Capital | 4,352.30 |
| Debt Weighting | 14.72 |
| Equity Weighting | 85.28 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 590.02 | 627.12 | 509.04 | 494.12 | 583.20 | 586.93 | 590.68 | 594.45 | 598.25 | 602.07 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 197.75 | 190.15 | 142.86 | 135.54 | 102.07 | 160.62 | 161.65 | 162.68 | 163.72 | 164.77 |
| EBIT | 48.61 | 49.27 | 1.34 | -3.81 | -63.71 | 5.48 | 5.51 | 5.55 | 5.58 | 5.62 |
| Tax Rate | 242.81% | 31.28% | -11.60% | -283.80% | 22.80% | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.30% |
| EBIAT | -69.43 | 33.86 | 1.50 | -14.63 | -49.18 | 5.46 | 5.49 | 5.53 | 5.56 | 5.60 |
| Depreciation | 149.13 | 140.88 | 141.51 | 139.36 | 165.78 | 155.15 | 156.14 | 157.14 | 158.14 | 159.15 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 103.65 | -98.19 | 70.92 | 0.87 | -32.28 | -0.79 | -0.80 | -0.80 | -0.81 |
| Inventories | - | -0.71 | -0.06 | 0.11 | -0.12 | 0.08 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -148.79 | -13.29 | 86.74 | 27.93 | -30.36 | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.23 | 1.24 |
| Capital Expenditure | -168.22 | -191.91 | -241.87 | -144.43 | -123.74 | -184.38 | -185.56 | -186.75 | -187.94 | -189.14 |
| UFCF | -88.51 | -63.03 | -210.39 | 138.07 | 21.53 | -86.34 | -23.52 | -23.67 | -23.82 | -23.97 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -80.46 | -20.42 | -19.15 | -17.96 | -16.85 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -154.84 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.31 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -24.45 |
| Terminal Value | -460.45 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -323.58 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -478.42 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 519.33 |
| Equity Value | -997.75 |
| Shares Outstanding | 162.94 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -6.12 |