Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Marriott International, Inc. (MAR)

$139.39

+6.33 (+4.76%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 2.25 | 139.39 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 22,89420,75820,97210,57113,85712,928.2812,061.8011,253.4010,499.189,795.51
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 3,4142,9692,3964571,8951,516.191,414.571,319.761,231.311,148.79
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 3,1242,6851,993-211,6001,226.411,144.211,067.53995.98929.23
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 290284403478295289.78270.36252.24235.33219.56
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 3833162258771,393584.80545.61509.04474.92443.09
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,9912,1332,3951,7681,9821,588.121,481.681,382.381,289.731,203.29
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 780767720527726536.77500.80467.23435.92406.70
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -240-556-653-135-183-244.04-227.68-212.42-198.19-184.90
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 139.39
Beta 1.572
Diluted Shares Outstanding 325.80
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 6.86
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.48%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.546
Total Debt 11,236
Total Equity 45,413.26
Total Capital 56,649.26
Debt Weighting 19.83
Equity Weighting 80.17
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 22,89420,75820,97210,57113,85712,928.2812,061.8011,253.4010,499.189,795.51
EBITDA 3,4142,9692,3964571,8951,516.191,414.571,319.761,231.311,148.79
EBIT 3,1242,6851,993-211,6001,226.411,144.211,067.53995.98929.23
Tax Rate 51.62%18.68%20.39%42.70%6.86%28.05%28.05%28.05%28.05%28.05%
EBIAT 1,511.332,183.491,586.67-12.031,490.17882.39823.25768.07716.59668.57
Depreciation 290284403478295289.78270.36252.24235.33219.56
Accounts Receivable --142-262627-214393.88106.4499.3092.6586.44
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable --13-47-193199-189.23-35.98-33.56-31.31-29.22
Capital Expenditure -240-556-653-135-183-244.04-227.68-212.42-198.19-184.90
UFCF 1,561.331,756.491,027.67764.971,587.171,132.78936.38873.63815.07760.45
WACC
PV UFCF 1,037.91786.12672.01574.46491.08
SUM PV UFCF 3,561.58

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.14
Free cash flow (t + 1) 775.66
Terminal Value 10,863.53
Present Value of Terminal Value 7,015.38

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 10,576.96
Net Debt 9,843
Equity Value 733.96
Shares Outstanding 325.80
Equity Value Per Share 2.25