Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Martifer SGPS, S.A. (MAR.LS)
1.12 €
-0.01 (-0.89%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 176.87 | 200.59 | 235.91 | 226.12 | 209.32 | 219.49 | 230.16 | 241.35 | 253.07 | 265.37 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 21.50 | 16.71 | 38.30 | 18.82 | 22.50 | 24.49 | 25.68 | 26.93 | 28.24 | 29.61 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 10.87 | 7.93 | 29.77 | 12.82 | 13.79 | 15.35 | 16.10 | 16.88 | 17.70 | 18.56 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 10.62 | 8.77 | 8.53 | 6.01 | 8.71 | 9.14 | 9.58 | 10.05 | 10.53 | 11.05 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 47.31 | 35.08 | 36.37 | 45.10 | 43.39 | 44.04 | 46.18 | 48.43 | 50.78 | 53.25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 78.48 | 55.58 | 63.26 | 49.42 | 57.42 | 65.05 | 68.21 | 71.53 | 75 | 78.65 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 9.63 | 13.95 | 9.93 | 8.97 | 12.34 | 11.62 | 12.19 | 12.78 | 13.40 | 14.05 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 47.59 | 49.57 | 48.48 | 47.90 | 39.46 | 49.26 | 51.65 | 54.16 | 56.79 | 59.55 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -2.64 | -1.85 | -0.37 | -1.76 | -1.80 | -1.85 | -1.94 | -2.03 | -2.13 | -2.23 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 1.12 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.663 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 107.49 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 21.91 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.33% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 6.824 |
| Total Debt | 131.69 |
| Total Equity | 120.38 |
| Total Capital | 252.07 |
| Debt Weighting | 52.24 |
| Equity Weighting | 47.76 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 176.87 | 200.59 | 235.91 | 226.12 | 209.32 | 219.49 | 230.16 | 241.35 | 253.07 | 265.37 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 21.50 | 16.71 | 38.30 | 18.82 | 22.50 | 24.49 | 25.68 | 26.93 | 28.24 | 29.61 |
| EBIT | 10.87 | 7.93 | 29.77 | 12.82 | 13.79 | 15.35 | 16.10 | 16.88 | 17.70 | 18.56 |
| Tax Rate | -115.06% | 59.85% | -4.91% | 22.20% | 21.91% | -3.20% | -3.20% | -3.20% | -3.20% | -3.20% |
| EBIAT | 23.38 | 3.19 | 31.23 | 9.97 | 10.77 | 15.85 | 16.62 | 17.42 | 18.27 | 19.16 |
| Depreciation | 10.62 | 8.77 | 8.53 | 6.01 | 8.71 | 9.14 | 9.58 | 10.05 | 10.53 | 11.05 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 22.90 | -7.67 | 13.84 | -8 | -7.63 | -3.16 | -3.31 | -3.48 | -3.64 |
| Inventories | - | -4.33 | 4.03 | 0.95 | -3.37 | 0.72 | -0.56 | -0.59 | -0.62 | -0.65 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 1.98 | -1.09 | -0.58 | -8.45 | 9.80 | 2.39 | 2.51 | 2.63 | 2.76 |
| Capital Expenditure | -2.64 | -1.85 | -0.37 | -1.76 | -1.80 | -1.85 | -1.94 | -2.03 | -2.13 | -2.23 |
| UFCF | 31.37 | 30.66 | 34.65 | 28.43 | -2.14 | 26.03 | 22.93 | 24.04 | 25.21 | 26.43 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 24.91 | 21 | 21.08 | 21.16 | 21.23 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 109.38 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 4.48 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 26.96 |
| Terminal Value | 1,087.21 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 873.27 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 982.65 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 90.67 |
| Equity Value | 891.98 |
| Shares Outstanding | 107.49 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 8.30 |