Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Merchants Bancorp (MBIN)

$41.59

+0.31 (+0.75%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 221.02 | 41.59 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 134.93165.45339.78430.31427.19591.57819.181,134.391,570.872,175.30
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 135.08102.99245.25307.12455.91488.20676.05936.171,296.391,795.21
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 134.62102.13243.36304.93453.42485.24671.94930.491,288.521,784.31
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 0.460.851.902.192.492.964.105.687.8710.90
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 667.60796.95449.531,343.24345.511,776.842,460.523,407.274,718.306,533.79
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 13.8318.3621.7724.1056.2655.0476.22105.55146.16202.40
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable ----------
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -15.51-13.98-3.62-3.65-8.82-28.30-39.19-54.28-75.16-104.08
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 41.59
Beta 1.213
Diluted Shares Outstanding 43.32
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 24.53
After-tax Cost of Debt 12.75%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.010
Total Debt 960.39
Total Equity 1,801.55
Total Capital 2,761.94
Debt Weighting 34.77
Equity Weighting 65.23
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 134.93165.45339.78430.31427.19591.57819.181,134.391,570.872,175.30
EBITDA 135.08102.99245.25307.12455.91488.20676.05936.171,296.391,795.21
EBIT 134.62102.13243.36304.93453.42485.24671.94930.491,288.521,784.31
Tax Rate 29.14%24.29%25.82%25.52%24.53%25.86%25.86%25.86%25.86%25.86%
EBIAT 95.3977.33180.53227.10342.19359.76498.19689.88955.321,322.91
Depreciation 0.460.851.902.192.492.964.105.687.8710.90
Accounts Receivable --4.53-3.41-2.33-32.161.22-21.18-29.33-40.61-56.24
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable ----------
Capital Expenditure -15.51-13.98-3.62-3.65-8.82-28.30-39.19-54.28-75.16-104.08
UFCF 80.3559.67175.39223.32303.70335.64441.92611.96847.421,173.49
WACC
PV UFCF 302.49358.93447.94559.03697.67
SUM PV UFCF 2,366.05

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.96
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,196.96
Terminal Value 13,358.94
Present Value of Terminal Value 7,942.18

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 10,308.24
Net Debt 734.23
Equity Value 9,574.01
Shares Outstanding 43.32
Equity Value Per Share 221.02