Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Merchants Bancorp (MBIN)

$27.27

-0.43 (-1.55%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 1,000.92 | 27.27 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 110.18134.94164.85342.53427.67617.21890.751,285.521,855.252,677.48
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 105.25135.08192.68303.90341.01593.72856.851,236.591,784.642,575.58
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 104.95134.62191.83302338.82591.01852.941,230.961,776.502,563.83
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 0.300.460.851.902.192.713.915.648.1411.74
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 767.89667.59796.95449.531,343.242,617.523,777.585,451.767,867.9311,354.93
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 8.3313.8318.3621.7724.1050.5372.92105.24151.88219.19
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 2.152.643.226.698.3612.0617.4125.1236.2552.32
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2-15.51-13.98-3.62-24.43-35.25-50.87-73.42-105.96-152.92
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 27.27
Beta 1.083
Diluted Shares Outstanding 43.40
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 25.52
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.44%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.951
Total Debt 1,033.95
Total Equity 1,183.49
Total Capital 2,217.45
Debt Weighting 46.63
Equity Weighting 53.37
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 110.18134.94164.85342.53427.67617.21890.751,285.521,855.252,677.48
EBITDA 105.25135.08192.68303.90341.01593.72856.851,236.591,784.642,575.58
EBIT 104.95134.62191.83302338.82591.01852.941,230.961,776.502,563.83
Tax Rate 29.13%25.17%24.29%25.82%25.52%25.99%25.99%25.99%25.99%25.99%
EBIAT 74.38100.73145.24224.04252.35437.43631.30911.081,314.871,897.60
Depreciation 0.300.460.851.902.192.713.915.648.1411.74
Accounts Receivable --5.50-4.53-3.41-2.33-26.42-22.39-32.32-46.64-67.31
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -0.480.583.471.663.705.357.7111.1316.07
Capital Expenditure -2-15.51-13.98-3.62-24.43-35.25-50.87-73.42-105.96-152.92
UFCF 72.6880.67128.16222.37229.44382.17567.28818.701,181.541,705.18
WACC
PV UFCF 362.66510.84699.60958.111,312.14
SUM PV UFCF 3,843.34

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.38
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,739.29
Terminal Value 51,458.14
Present Value of Terminal Value 39,597.08

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 43,440.42
Net Debt 1.34
Equity Value 43,439.08
Shares Outstanding 43.40
Equity Value Per Share 1,000.92