Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Merchants Bancorp (MBINP)
$22.49
+0.57 (+2.60%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 134.94 | 164.85 | 342.53 | 427.67 | 480.83 | 681.87 | 966.96 | 1,371.24 | 1,944.55 | 2,757.56 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 135.08 | 192.68 | 303.90 | 341.01 | 455.91 | 654.95 | 928.79 | 1,317.11 | 1,867.79 | 2,648.71 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 134.62 | 191.83 | 302 | 338.82 | 453.42 | 651.62 | 924.07 | 1,310.42 | 1,858.30 | 2,635.25 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 0.46 | 0.85 | 1.90 | 2.19 | 2.48 | 3.33 | 4.72 | 6.69 | 9.49 | 13.46 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 667.59 | 796.95 | 449.53 | 1,343.24 | 345.51 | 2,039.28 | 2,891.90 | 4,101 | 5,815.61 | 8,247.11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 13.83 | 18.36 | 21.77 | 24.10 | 7,483.12 | 2,167.87 | 3,074.26 | 4,359.60 | 6,182.34 | 8,767.17 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -15.51 | -13.98 | -3.62 | -29.98 | -33.71 | -47.81 | -67.79 | -96.14 | -136.33 | -193.33 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 22.49 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.119 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 43.32 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 24.53 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.77% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.067 |
| Total Debt | - |
| Total Equity | 974.20 |
| Total Capital | 974.20 |
| Debt Weighting | 0.00 |
| Equity Weighting | 100.00 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 134.94 | 164.85 | 342.53 | 427.67 | 480.83 | 681.87 | 966.96 | 1,371.24 | 1,944.55 | 2,757.56 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 135.08 | 192.68 | 303.90 | 341.01 | 455.91 | 654.95 | 928.79 | 1,317.11 | 1,867.79 | 2,648.71 |
| EBIT | 134.62 | 191.83 | 302 | 338.82 | 453.42 | 651.62 | 924.07 | 1,310.42 | 1,858.30 | 2,635.25 |
| Tax Rate | 25.17% | 24.29% | 25.82% | 25.52% | 24.53% | 25.07% | 25.07% | 25.07% | 25.07% | 25.07% |
| EBIAT | 100.73 | 145.24 | 224.04 | 252.35 | 342.19 | 488.29 | 692.44 | 981.95 | 1,392.50 | 1,974.70 |
| Depreciation | 0.46 | 0.85 | 1.90 | 2.19 | 2.48 | 3.33 | 4.72 | 6.69 | 9.49 | 13.46 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -4.53 | -3.41 | -2.33 | -7,459.02 | 5,315.25 | -906.38 | -1,285.34 | -1,822.74 | -2,584.83 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Capital Expenditure | -15.51 | -13.98 | -3.62 | -29.98 | -33.71 | -47.81 | -67.79 | -96.14 | -136.33 | -193.33 |
| UFCF | 85.68 | 127.58 | 218.90 | 222.22 | -7,148.05 | 5,759.06 | -277.02 | -392.84 | -557.08 | -790 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 5,280.15 | -232.86 | -302.76 | -393.64 | -511.80 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 3,839.09 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 9.07 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -805.80 |
| Terminal Value | -11,397.38 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -7,383.78 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -3,544.68 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -22.17 |
| Equity Value | -3,522.51 |
| Shares Outstanding | 43.32 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -81.32 |