Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA (MBWS.PA)

2.19 €

+0.03 (+1.39%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -7.17 | 2.19 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 414.74388.91275.49169.08166.68135.25109.7489.0572.2558.63
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -13.58-41.44-27.88-28.887.19-9.96-8.08-6.56-5.32-4.32
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -61.64-49.96-59.29-34.025.27-17.90-14.53-11.79-9.56-7.76
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 48.068.5231.415.141.937.956.455.234.243.44
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 59.7321.8326.1942.0754.1723.5119.0715.4812.5610.19
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 69.4364.5653.9937.8135.0926.0621.1517.1613.9211.30
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 87.9167.8963.7234.7831.1127.3222.1717.9914.6011.84
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -22.22-22.49-9.06-5.02-3.28-5.24-4.25-3.45-2.80-2.27
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 2.19
Beta 0.364
Diluted Shares Outstanding 79.87
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 4.63
After-tax Cost of Debt 7.25%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 5.234
Total Debt 5.98
Total Equity 174.91
Total Capital 180.89
Debt Weighting 3.30
Equity Weighting 96.70
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 414.74388.91275.49169.08166.68135.25109.7489.0572.2558.63
EBITDA -13.58-41.44-27.88-28.887.19-9.96-8.08-6.56-5.32-4.32
EBIT -61.64-49.96-59.29-34.025.27-17.90-14.53-11.79-9.56-7.76
Tax Rate 0.16%-10.20%-13.44%-856.13%4.63%-175.00%-175.00%-175.00%-175.00%-175.00%
EBIAT -61.54-55.06-67.26-325.275.02-49.24-39.95-32.42-26.30-21.34
Depreciation 48.068.5231.415.141.937.956.455.234.243.44
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories -4.8810.5716.182.729.034.923.993.242.63
Accounts Payable --20.02-4.17-28.94-3.66-3.79-5.15-4.18-3.39-2.75
Capital Expenditure -22.22-22.49-9.06-5.03-3.28-5.24-4.25-3.45-2.80-2.27
UFCF -35.71-84.18-38.51-337.922.73-41.29-37.99-30.83-25.01-20.30
WACC
PV UFCF -39.21-34.26-26.40-20.34-15.68
SUM PV UFCF -135.90

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.30
Free cash flow (t + 1) -20.70
Terminal Value -627.32
Present Value of Terminal Value -484.56

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -620.46
Net Debt -48.19
Equity Value -572.26
Shares Outstanding 79.87
Equity Value Per Share -7.17