Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA (MBWS.PA)
2.19 €
+0.03 (+1.39%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 414.74 | 388.91 | 275.49 | 169.08 | 166.68 | 135.25 | 109.74 | 89.05 | 72.25 | 58.63 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -13.58 | -41.44 | -27.88 | -28.88 | 7.19 | -9.96 | -8.08 | -6.56 | -5.32 | -4.32 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -61.64 | -49.96 | -59.29 | -34.02 | 5.27 | -17.90 | -14.53 | -11.79 | -9.56 | -7.76 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 48.06 | 8.52 | 31.41 | 5.14 | 1.93 | 7.95 | 6.45 | 5.23 | 4.24 | 3.44 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 59.73 | 21.83 | 26.19 | 42.07 | 54.17 | 23.51 | 19.07 | 15.48 | 12.56 | 10.19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 69.43 | 64.56 | 53.99 | 37.81 | 35.09 | 26.06 | 21.15 | 17.16 | 13.92 | 11.30 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 87.91 | 67.89 | 63.72 | 34.78 | 31.11 | 27.32 | 22.17 | 17.99 | 14.60 | 11.84 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -22.22 | -22.49 | -9.06 | -5.02 | -3.28 | -5.24 | -4.25 | -3.45 | -2.80 | -2.27 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 2.19 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.364 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 79.87 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 4.63 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 7.25% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 5.234 |
| Total Debt | 5.98 |
| Total Equity | 174.91 |
| Total Capital | 180.89 |
| Debt Weighting | 3.30 |
| Equity Weighting | 96.70 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 414.74 | 388.91 | 275.49 | 169.08 | 166.68 | 135.25 | 109.74 | 89.05 | 72.25 | 58.63 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -13.58 | -41.44 | -27.88 | -28.88 | 7.19 | -9.96 | -8.08 | -6.56 | -5.32 | -4.32 |
| EBIT | -61.64 | -49.96 | -59.29 | -34.02 | 5.27 | -17.90 | -14.53 | -11.79 | -9.56 | -7.76 |
| Tax Rate | 0.16% | -10.20% | -13.44% | -856.13% | 4.63% | -175.00% | -175.00% | -175.00% | -175.00% | -175.00% |
| EBIAT | -61.54 | -55.06 | -67.26 | -325.27 | 5.02 | -49.24 | -39.95 | -32.42 | -26.30 | -21.34 |
| Depreciation | 48.06 | 8.52 | 31.41 | 5.14 | 1.93 | 7.95 | 6.45 | 5.23 | 4.24 | 3.44 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories | - | 4.88 | 10.57 | 16.18 | 2.72 | 9.03 | 4.92 | 3.99 | 3.24 | 2.63 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -20.02 | -4.17 | -28.94 | -3.66 | -3.79 | -5.15 | -4.18 | -3.39 | -2.75 |
| Capital Expenditure | -22.22 | -22.49 | -9.06 | -5.03 | -3.28 | -5.24 | -4.25 | -3.45 | -2.80 | -2.27 |
| UFCF | -35.71 | -84.18 | -38.51 | -337.92 | 2.73 | -41.29 | -37.99 | -30.83 | -25.01 | -20.30 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -39.21 | -34.26 | -26.40 | -20.34 | -15.68 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -135.90 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 5.30 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -20.70 |
| Terminal Value | -627.32 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -484.56 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -620.46 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -48.19 |
| Equity Value | -572.26 |
| Shares Outstanding | 79.87 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -7.17 |