Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

LVMH Moët Hennessy - Louis Vuitton,... (MC.PA)

840.4 €

+18.80 (+2.29%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 637.68 | 840.4 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 53,67044,65064,21579,18486,15398,887.26113,503.78130,280.76149,537.54171,640.67
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 16,53014,33922,95727,35725,25632,143.8436,895.0242,348.4648,607.9955,792.73
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 11,4228,28917,12721,13119,73522,963.7026,357.9630,253.9334,725.7639,858.57
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 5,1086,0505,8306,2265,5219,180.1410,537.0512,094.5313,882.2315,934.16
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 6,40620,71510,56510,88611,26420,094.8323,065.0526,474.2930,387.4534,879.02
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 6,3886,2426,1128,5377,94410,957.1612,576.7314,435.7016,569.4419,018.56
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 13,71713,01516,54820,31923,27826,334.9730,227.5434,695.4639,823.8045,710.15
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 5,8145,0987,0868,7889,04910,855.2512,459.7614,301.4316,415.3318,841.67
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -3,388-2,465-3,255-5,082-6,807-6,174.78-7,087.47-8,135.07-9,337.51-10,717.69
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 840.4
Beta 1.001
Diluted Shares Outstanding 500.30
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 29.83
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.04%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.064
Total Debt 38,485
Total Equity 420,455.75
Total Capital 458,940.75
Debt Weighting 8.39
Equity Weighting 91.61
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 53,67044,65064,21579,18486,15398,887.26113,503.78130,280.76149,537.54171,640.67
EBITDA 16,53014,33922,95727,35725,25632,143.8436,895.0242,348.4648,607.9955,792.73
EBIT 11,4228,28917,12721,13119,73522,963.7026,357.9630,253.9334,725.7639,858.57
Tax Rate 33.06%36.14%30.06%29.98%29.83%31.81%31.81%31.81%31.81%31.81%
EBIAT 7,645.595,293.3411,978.6514,796.1113,847.8115,657.8917,972.2820,628.7623,677.9027,177.73
Depreciation 5,1086,0505,8306,2265,5219,180.1410,537.0512,094.5313,882.2315,934.16
Accounts Receivable -146130-2,425593-3,013.16-1,619.58-1,858.97-2,133.74-2,449.13
Inventories -702-3,533-3,771-2,959-3,056.97-3,892.57-4,467.93-5,128.33-5,886.35
Accounts Payable --7161,9881,7022611,806.251,604.511,841.682,113.892,426.35
Capital Expenditure -3,388-2,465-3,255-5,082-6,807-6,174.78-7,087.47-8,135.07-9,337.51-10,717.69
UFCF 9,365.599,010.3413,138.6511,446.1110,456.8114,399.3817,514.2320,103.0123,074.4326,485.06
WACC
PV UFCF 13,263.9814,861.1215,712.7316,613.1417,565.15
SUM PV UFCF 78,016.12

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.56
Free cash flow (t + 1) 27,014.77
Terminal Value 411,810.45
Present Value of Terminal Value 273,116.66

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 351,132.77
Net Debt 32,099
Equity Value 319,033.77
Shares Outstanding 500.30
Equity Value Per Share 637.68