Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

MongoDB, Inc. (MDB)

$449.98

+22.49 (+5.26%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -406.57 | 449.98 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 267.02421.72590.38873.781,284.041,903.232,820.994,181.326,197.639,186.23
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -91.97-128.09-184.77-264.91-317.47-575.37-852.83-1,264.08-1,873.64-2,777.14
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -97.76-147.87-209.30-289.36-346.66-636.60-943.58-1,398.59-2,073.01-3,072.66
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 5.7919.7724.5324.4629.1861.2390.75134.51199.37295.52
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 465.97986.52957.741,825.921,836.633,512.085,205.667,715.9211,436.6716,951.63
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 64.8385.55135.18195.38285.19426.46632.10936.911,388.702,058.36
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 15.8824.2236.62-1,352.0283.55-496.11-735.34-1,089.93-1,615.51-2,394.54
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 2.152.854.145.238.3013.0519.3528.6742.5063
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -6.85-3.56-11.77-8.07-7.24-26.23-38.88-57.63-85.43-126.62
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 449.98
Beta 1.234
Diluted Shares Outstanding 68.63
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -3.64
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.33%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.155
Total Debt 1,184.83
Total Equity 30,881.35
Total Capital 32,066.18
Debt Weighting 3.69
Equity Weighting 96.31
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 267.02421.72590.38873.781,284.041,903.232,820.994,181.326,197.639,186.23
EBITDA -91.97-128.09-184.77-264.91-317.47-575.37-852.83-1,264.08-1,873.64-2,777.14
EBIT -97.76-147.87-209.30-289.36-346.66-636.60-943.58-1,398.59-2,073.01-3,072.66
Tax Rate 3.24%0.37%-1.62%-1.31%-3.64%-0.59%-0.59%-0.59%-0.59%-0.59%
EBIAT -94.59-147.32-212.69-293.16-359.29-640.37-949.17-1,406.87-2,085.29-3,090.85
Depreciation 5.7919.7724.5324.4629.1861.2390.75134.51199.37295.52
Accounts Receivable --20.72-49.62-60.21-89.81-141.26-205.64-304.81-451.79-669.66
Inventories --8.34-12.401,388.64-1,435.57579.66239.23354.59525.58779.03
Accounts Payable -0.701.301.093.064.766.299.3313.8320.49
Capital Expenditure -6.85-3.56-11.77-8.07-7.24-26.23-38.88-57.63-85.43-126.62
UFCF -95.65-159.47-260.661,052.74-1,859.67-162.23-857.42-1,270.88-1,883.72-2,792.09
WACC
PV UFCF -147.56-709.39-956.40-1,289.42-1,738.40
SUM PV UFCF -4,841.16

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.94
Free cash flow (t + 1) -2,847.93
Terminal Value -35,868.11
Present Value of Terminal Value -22,332.11

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -27,173.28
Net Debt 729
Equity Value -27,902.28
Shares Outstanding 68.63
Equity Value Per Share -406.57