Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

MDC Partners Inc. (MDCA)

$5.42

-0.19 (-3.39%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -3.80 | 5.42 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 1,385.791,513.781,476.201,415.801,199.011,161.091,124.371,088.821,054.381,021.04
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 57.06182.3821.14109.11-75.5144.1442.7441.3940.0838.81
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 10.62138.91-25.0670.78-112.428.988.708.428.167.90
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 46.4543.4746.2038.3336.9035.1534.0432.9731.9230.91
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Total Cash 27.9246.1830.87106.9360.7645.9344.4743.0741.7040.39
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 421.46465.22437.57480.54385.44364.29352.77341.61330.81320.35
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 251.46244.53221.99200.15168.40180.01174.32168.81163.47158.30
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -29.43-32.96-20.26-18.60-24.31-20.93-20.27-19.63-19.01-18.41
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 5.42
Beta 0.787
Diluted Shares Outstanding 72.86
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -159.01
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.00%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.542
Total Debt 1,131.63
Total Equity 394.91
Total Capital 1,526.55
Debt Weighting 74.13
Equity Weighting 25.87
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 1,385.791,513.781,476.201,415.801,199.011,161.091,124.371,088.821,054.381,021.04
EBITDA 57.06182.3821.14109.11-75.5144.1442.7441.3940.0838.81
EBIT 10.62138.91-25.0670.78-112.428.988.708.428.167.90
Tax Rate 3.57%-177.74%-53.88%121.67%-159.01%-53.08%-53.08%-53.08%-53.08%-53.08%
EBIAT 10.24385.80-38.56-15.34-291.1713.7513.3212.9012.4912.09
Depreciation 46.4543.4746.2038.3336.9035.1534.0432.9731.9230.91
Accounts Receivable --43.7627.65-42.9795.0921.1511.5211.1610.8010.46
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable --6.93-22.53-21.85-31.7511.61-5.69-5.51-5.34-5.17
Capital Expenditure -29.43-32.96-20.26-18.60-24.31-20.93-20.27-19.63-19.01-18.41
UFCF 27.25345.62-7.51-60.42-215.2360.7432.9231.8730.8729.89
WACC
PV UFCF 57.4929.4827.0224.7722.70
SUM PV UFCF 161.45

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.66
Free cash flow (t + 1) 30.49
Terminal Value 833.01
Present Value of Terminal Value 632.55

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 794.01
Net Debt 1,070.88
Equity Value -276.87
Shares Outstanding 72.86
Equity Value Per Share -3.80