Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
MDU Resources Group, Inc. (MDU)
$21.04
+0.61 (+2.99%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 4,531.55 | 5,336.78 | 5,532.75 | 5,680.73 | 6,973.86 | 7,791.19 | 8,704.31 | 9,724.45 | 10,864.14 | 12,137.41 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 404.42 | 497.32 | 856.41 | 860.25 | 909.37 | 964.63 | 1,077.68 | 1,203.99 | 1,345.09 | 1,502.74 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 404.42 | 497.32 | 856.41 | 860.25 | 791.57 | 833.03 | 930.66 | 1,039.73 | 1,161.58 | 1,297.72 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | - | - | - | - | 117.80 | 131.60 | 147.03 | 164.26 | 183.51 | 205.02 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 53.95 | 66.46 | 59.55 | 54.16 | 80.52 | 87.57 | 97.84 | 109.30 | 122.11 | 136.43 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 722.95 | 836.61 | 873.99 | 946.74 | 1,305.64 | 1,290.44 | 1,441.68 | 1,610.64 | 1,799.41 | 2,010.30 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 287.31 | 278.41 | 291.17 | 335.61 | 387.52 | 440.74 | 492.39 | 550.10 | 614.57 | 686.59 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 358.50 | 403.39 | 426.26 | 478.93 | 657.17 | 639.32 | 714.25 | 797.96 | 891.48 | 995.96 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -568.23 | -576.06 | -558.01 | -659.42 | -656.59 | -848.34 | -947.76 | -1,058.84 | -1,182.94 | -1,321.58 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 21.04 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.763 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 0.08 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 20.47 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.96% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 7.386 |
Total Debt | 3,207.97 |
Total Equity | 1.68 |
Total Capital | 3,209.66 |
Debt Weighting | 99.95 |
Equity Weighting | 0.05 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 4,531.55 | 5,336.78 | 5,532.75 | 5,680.73 | 6,973.86 | 7,791.19 | 8,704.31 | 9,724.45 | 10,864.14 | 12,137.41 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 404.42 | 497.32 | 856.41 | 860.25 | 909.37 | 964.63 | 1,077.68 | 1,203.99 | 1,345.09 | 1,502.74 |
EBIT | 404.42 | 497.32 | 856.41 | 860.25 | 791.57 | 833.03 | 930.66 | 1,039.73 | 1,161.58 | 1,297.72 |
Tax Rate | 14.06% | 15.81% | 17.87% | 18.97% | 20.47% | 17.44% | 17.44% | 17.44% | 17.44% | 17.44% |
EBIAT | 347.55 | 418.70 | 703.36 | 697.07 | 629.56 | 687.78 | 768.39 | 858.45 | 959.05 | 1,071.45 |
Depreciation | - | - | - | - | 117.80 | 131.60 | 147.03 | 164.26 | 183.51 | 205.02 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -113.66 | -37.38 | -72.76 | -358.90 | 15.20 | -151.24 | -168.96 | -188.77 | -210.89 |
Inventories | - | 8.90 | -12.76 | -44.44 | -51.92 | -53.21 | -51.65 | -57.71 | -64.47 | -72.03 |
Accounts Payable | - | 44.89 | 22.87 | 52.67 | 178.23 | -17.85 | 74.93 | 83.71 | 93.52 | 104.48 |
Capital Expenditure | -568.23 | -576.07 | -558.01 | -659.42 | -656.59 | -848.34 | -947.76 | -1,058.84 | -1,182.94 | -1,321.58 |
UFCF | -220.68 | -217.24 | 118.08 | -26.89 | -141.81 | -84.81 | -160.31 | -179.10 | -200.09 | -223.54 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | -82.37 | -151.23 | -164.09 | -178.05 | -193.20 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | -768.95 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 2.96 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | -228.01 |
Terminal Value | -23,751.08 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | -20,527.72 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | -21,296.67 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 3,127.46 |
Equity Value | -24,424.12 |
Shares Outstanding | 0.08 |
Equity Value Per Share | -305,301.55 |