Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

MDU Resources Group, Inc. (MDU)

$21.04

+0.61 (+2.99%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -305,301.55 | 21.04 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	4,531.55	5,336.78	5,532.75	5,680.73	6,973.86	7,791.19	8,704.31	9,724.45	10,864.14	12,137.41
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	404.42	497.32	856.41	860.25	909.37	964.63	1,077.68	1,203.99	1,345.09	1,502.74
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	404.42	497.32	856.41	860.25	791.57	833.03	930.66	1,039.73	1,161.58	1,297.72
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	-	-	-	-	117.80	131.60	147.03	164.26	183.51	205.02
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	53.95	66.46	59.55	54.16	80.52	87.57	97.84	109.30	122.11	136.43
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	722.95	836.61	873.99	946.74	1,305.64	1,290.44	1,441.68	1,610.64	1,799.41	2,010.30
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	287.31	278.41	291.17	335.61	387.52	440.74	492.39	550.10	614.57	686.59
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	358.50	403.39	426.26	478.93	657.17	639.32	714.25	797.96	891.48	995.96
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-568.23	-576.06	-558.01	-659.42	-656.59	-848.34	-947.76	-1,058.84	-1,182.94	-1,321.58
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 21.04
Beta	0.763
Diluted Shares Outstanding	0.08
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	20.47
After-tax Cost of Debt	2.96%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	7.386
Total Debt	3,207.97
Total Equity	1.68
Total Capital	3,209.66
Debt Weighting	99.95
Equity Weighting	0.05
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	4,531.55	5,336.78	5,532.75	5,680.73	6,973.86	7,791.19	8,704.31	9,724.45	10,864.14	12,137.41
EBITDA	404.42	497.32	856.41	860.25	909.37	964.63	1,077.68	1,203.99	1,345.09	1,502.74
EBIT	404.42	497.32	856.41	860.25	791.57	833.03	930.66	1,039.73	1,161.58	1,297.72
Tax Rate	14.06%	15.81%	17.87%	18.97%	20.47%	17.44%	17.44%	17.44%	17.44%	17.44%
EBIAT	347.55	418.70	703.36	697.07	629.56	687.78	768.39	858.45	959.05	1,071.45
Depreciation	-	-	-	-	117.80	131.60	147.03	164.26	183.51	205.02
Accounts Receivable	-	-113.66	-37.38	-72.76	-358.90	15.20	-151.24	-168.96	-188.77	-210.89
Inventories	-	8.90	-12.76	-44.44	-51.92	-53.21	-51.65	-57.71	-64.47	-72.03
Accounts Payable	-	44.89	22.87	52.67	178.23	-17.85	74.93	83.71	93.52	104.48
Capital Expenditure	-568.23	-576.07	-558.01	-659.42	-656.59	-848.34	-947.76	-1,058.84	-1,182.94	-1,321.58
UFCF	-220.68	-217.24	118.08	-26.89	-141.81	-84.81	-160.31	-179.10	-200.09	-223.54
WACC
PV UFCF						-82.37	-151.23	-164.09	-178.05	-193.20
SUM PV UFCF										-768.95

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	2.96
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-228.01
Terminal Value	-23,751.08
Present Value of Terminal Value	-20,527.72

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-21,296.67
Net Debt	3,127.46
Equity Value	-24,424.12
Shares Outstanding	0.08
Equity Value Per Share	-305,301.55