Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

MDU Resources Group, Inc. (MDU)

$29.71

+0.12 (+0.41%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 11,217.85 | 29.71 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 4,531.555,336.785,532.755,680.706,973.907,791.258,704.399,724.5510,864.2712,137.57
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 404.42497.32856.41561328,407.6074,058.8082,738.5592,435.57103,269.09115,372.30
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 404.42497.32571.31268.28328,048.2473,657.3282,290.0291,934.47102,709.26114,746.86
EBIT (%)
Depreciation --285.10292.72359.36401.48448.53501.10559.83625.44
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 53.9566.4659.5554.1680.5287.5797.84109.30122.12136.43
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 722.95836.61873.99946.741,305.641,290.451,441.691,610.661,799.432,010.33
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 287.31278.41291.17335.61387.52440.74492.39550.10614.58686.60
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 358.50403.39426.26478.93657.17639.33714.26797.97891.49995.97
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -568.23-576.06-558.01-632.81-776.87-867.92-969.65-1,083.29-1,210.25-1,352.09
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 29.71
Beta 0.756
Diluted Shares Outstanding 202.40
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 20.47
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.96%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.174
Total Debt 3,207.97
Total Equity 6,013.30
Total Capital 9,221.28
Debt Weighting 34.79
Equity Weighting 65.21
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 4,531.555,336.785,532.755,680.706,973.907,791.258,704.399,724.5510,864.2712,137.57
EBITDA 404.42497.32856.41561328,407.6074,058.8082,738.5592,435.57103,269.09115,372.30
EBIT 404.42497.32571.31268.28328,048.2473,657.3282,290.0291,934.47102,709.26114,746.86
Tax Rate 14.06%15.81%17.87%18.97%20.47%17.44%17.44%17.44%17.44%17.44%
EBIAT 347.55418.70469.21217.39260,890.9960,814.3967,941.8875,904.7284,800.8194,739.52
Depreciation --285.10292.72359.36401.48448.53501.10559.83625.44
Accounts Receivable --113.66-37.38-72.76-358.9015.19-151.24-168.97-188.77-210.89
Inventories -8.90-12.76-44.44-51.92-53.21-51.65-57.71-64.47-72.03
Accounts Payable -44.8922.8752.67178.24-17.8474.9383.7193.52104.48
Capital Expenditure -568.23-576.07-558.01-632.81-656.59-867.92-969.65-1,083.29-1,210.25-1,352.09
UFCF -220.68-217.24169.03-187.23260,240.9060,292.0867,292.8075,179.5683,990.6693,834.43
WACC
PV UFCF 57,035.3660,219.4063,643.1467,261.5371,085.64
SUM PV UFCF 319,245.07

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.71
Free cash flow (t + 1) 95,711.12
Terminal Value 2,579,814.60
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,954,376.05

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 2,273,621.11
Net Debt 3,127.46
Equity Value 2,270,493.66
Shares Outstanding 202.40
Equity Value Per Share 11,217.85