Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
MDU Resources Group, Inc. (MDU)
$29.71
+0.12 (+0.41%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 4,531.55 | 5,336.78 | 5,532.75 | 5,680.70 | 6,973.90 | 7,791.25 | 8,704.39 | 9,724.55 | 10,864.27 | 12,137.57 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 404.42 | 497.32 | 856.41 | 561 | 328,407.60 | 74,058.80 | 82,738.55 | 92,435.57 | 103,269.09 | 115,372.30 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 404.42 | 497.32 | 571.31 | 268.28 | 328,048.24 | 73,657.32 | 82,290.02 | 91,934.47 | 102,709.26 | 114,746.86 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | - | - | 285.10 | 292.72 | 359.36 | 401.48 | 448.53 | 501.10 | 559.83 | 625.44 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 53.95 | 66.46 | 59.55 | 54.16 | 80.52 | 87.57 | 97.84 | 109.30 | 122.12 | 136.43 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 722.95 | 836.61 | 873.99 | 946.74 | 1,305.64 | 1,290.45 | 1,441.69 | 1,610.66 | 1,799.43 | 2,010.33 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 287.31 | 278.41 | 291.17 | 335.61 | 387.52 | 440.74 | 492.39 | 550.10 | 614.58 | 686.60 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 358.50 | 403.39 | 426.26 | 478.93 | 657.17 | 639.33 | 714.26 | 797.97 | 891.49 | 995.97 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -568.23 | -576.06 | -558.01 | -632.81 | -776.87 | -867.92 | -969.65 | -1,083.29 | -1,210.25 | -1,352.09 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 29.71 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.756 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 202.40 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 20.47 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.96% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 7.174 |
Total Debt | 3,207.97 |
Total Equity | 6,013.30 |
Total Capital | 9,221.28 |
Debt Weighting | 34.79 |
Equity Weighting | 65.21 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 4,531.55 | 5,336.78 | 5,532.75 | 5,680.70 | 6,973.90 | 7,791.25 | 8,704.39 | 9,724.55 | 10,864.27 | 12,137.57 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 404.42 | 497.32 | 856.41 | 561 | 328,407.60 | 74,058.80 | 82,738.55 | 92,435.57 | 103,269.09 | 115,372.30 |
EBIT | 404.42 | 497.32 | 571.31 | 268.28 | 328,048.24 | 73,657.32 | 82,290.02 | 91,934.47 | 102,709.26 | 114,746.86 |
Tax Rate | 14.06% | 15.81% | 17.87% | 18.97% | 20.47% | 17.44% | 17.44% | 17.44% | 17.44% | 17.44% |
EBIAT | 347.55 | 418.70 | 469.21 | 217.39 | 260,890.99 | 60,814.39 | 67,941.88 | 75,904.72 | 84,800.81 | 94,739.52 |
Depreciation | - | - | 285.10 | 292.72 | 359.36 | 401.48 | 448.53 | 501.10 | 559.83 | 625.44 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -113.66 | -37.38 | -72.76 | -358.90 | 15.19 | -151.24 | -168.97 | -188.77 | -210.89 |
Inventories | - | 8.90 | -12.76 | -44.44 | -51.92 | -53.21 | -51.65 | -57.71 | -64.47 | -72.03 |
Accounts Payable | - | 44.89 | 22.87 | 52.67 | 178.24 | -17.84 | 74.93 | 83.71 | 93.52 | 104.48 |
Capital Expenditure | -568.23 | -576.07 | -558.01 | -632.81 | -656.59 | -867.92 | -969.65 | -1,083.29 | -1,210.25 | -1,352.09 |
UFCF | -220.68 | -217.24 | 169.03 | -187.23 | 260,240.90 | 60,292.08 | 67,292.80 | 75,179.56 | 83,990.66 | 93,834.43 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 57,035.36 | 60,219.40 | 63,643.14 | 67,261.53 | 71,085.64 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 319,245.07 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 5.71 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 95,711.12 |
Terminal Value | 2,579,814.60 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 1,954,376.05 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 2,273,621.11 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 3,127.46 |
Equity Value | 2,270,493.66 |
Shares Outstanding | 202.40 |
Equity Value Per Share | 11,217.85 |