Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

MDU Resources Group, Inc. (MDU)

$21.04

+0.61 (+2.99%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -305,301.55 | 21.04 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 4,531.555,336.785,532.755,680.736,973.867,791.198,704.319,724.4510,864.1412,137.41
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 404.42497.32856.41860.25909.37964.631,077.681,203.991,345.091,502.74
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 404.42497.32856.41860.25791.57833.03930.661,039.731,161.581,297.72
EBIT (%)
Depreciation ----117.80131.60147.03164.26183.51205.02
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 53.9566.4659.5554.1680.5287.5797.84109.30122.11136.43
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 722.95836.61873.99946.741,305.641,290.441,441.681,610.641,799.412,010.30
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 287.31278.41291.17335.61387.52440.74492.39550.10614.57686.59
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 358.50403.39426.26478.93657.17639.32714.25797.96891.48995.96
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -568.23-576.06-558.01-659.42-656.59-848.34-947.76-1,058.84-1,182.94-1,321.58
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 21.04
Beta 0.763
Diluted Shares Outstanding 0.08
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 20.47
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.96%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.386
Total Debt 3,207.97
Total Equity 1.68
Total Capital 3,209.66
Debt Weighting 99.95
Equity Weighting 0.05
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 4,531.555,336.785,532.755,680.736,973.867,791.198,704.319,724.4510,864.1412,137.41
EBITDA 404.42497.32856.41860.25909.37964.631,077.681,203.991,345.091,502.74
EBIT 404.42497.32856.41860.25791.57833.03930.661,039.731,161.581,297.72
Tax Rate 14.06%15.81%17.87%18.97%20.47%17.44%17.44%17.44%17.44%17.44%
EBIAT 347.55418.70703.36697.07629.56687.78768.39858.45959.051,071.45
Depreciation ----117.80131.60147.03164.26183.51205.02
Accounts Receivable --113.66-37.38-72.76-358.9015.20-151.24-168.96-188.77-210.89
Inventories -8.90-12.76-44.44-51.92-53.21-51.65-57.71-64.47-72.03
Accounts Payable -44.8922.8752.67178.23-17.8574.9383.7193.52104.48
Capital Expenditure -568.23-576.07-558.01-659.42-656.59-848.34-947.76-1,058.84-1,182.94-1,321.58
UFCF -220.68-217.24118.08-26.89-141.81-84.81-160.31-179.10-200.09-223.54
WACC
PV UFCF -82.37-151.23-164.09-178.05-193.20
SUM PV UFCF -768.95

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 2.96
Free cash flow (t + 1) -228.01
Terminal Value -23,751.08
Present Value of Terminal Value -20,527.72

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -21,296.67
Net Debt 3,127.46
Equity Value -24,424.12
Shares Outstanding 0.08
Equity Value Per Share -305,301.55