Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

MDU Resources Group, Inc. (MDU)

$29.71

+0.12 (+0.41%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 11,217.85 | 29.71 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	4,531.55	5,336.78	5,532.75	5,680.70	6,973.90	7,791.25	8,704.39	9,724.55	10,864.27	12,137.57
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	404.42	497.32	856.41	561	328,407.60	74,058.80	82,738.55	92,435.57	103,269.09	115,372.30
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	404.42	497.32	571.31	268.28	328,048.24	73,657.32	82,290.02	91,934.47	102,709.26	114,746.86
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	-	-	285.10	292.72	359.36	401.48	448.53	501.10	559.83	625.44
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	53.95	66.46	59.55	54.16	80.52	87.57	97.84	109.30	122.12	136.43
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	722.95	836.61	873.99	946.74	1,305.64	1,290.45	1,441.69	1,610.66	1,799.43	2,010.33
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	287.31	278.41	291.17	335.61	387.52	440.74	492.39	550.10	614.58	686.60
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	358.50	403.39	426.26	478.93	657.17	639.33	714.26	797.97	891.49	995.97
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-568.23	-576.06	-558.01	-632.81	-776.87	-867.92	-969.65	-1,083.29	-1,210.25	-1,352.09
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 29.71
Beta	0.756
Diluted Shares Outstanding	202.40
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	20.47
After-tax Cost of Debt	2.96%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	7.174
Total Debt	3,207.97
Total Equity	6,013.30
Total Capital	9,221.28
Debt Weighting	34.79
Equity Weighting	65.21
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	4,531.55	5,336.78	5,532.75	5,680.70	6,973.90	7,791.25	8,704.39	9,724.55	10,864.27	12,137.57
EBITDA	404.42	497.32	856.41	561	328,407.60	74,058.80	82,738.55	92,435.57	103,269.09	115,372.30
EBIT	404.42	497.32	571.31	268.28	328,048.24	73,657.32	82,290.02	91,934.47	102,709.26	114,746.86
Tax Rate	14.06%	15.81%	17.87%	18.97%	20.47%	17.44%	17.44%	17.44%	17.44%	17.44%
EBIAT	347.55	418.70	469.21	217.39	260,890.99	60,814.39	67,941.88	75,904.72	84,800.81	94,739.52
Depreciation	-	-	285.10	292.72	359.36	401.48	448.53	501.10	559.83	625.44
Accounts Receivable	-	-113.66	-37.38	-72.76	-358.90	15.19	-151.24	-168.97	-188.77	-210.89
Inventories	-	8.90	-12.76	-44.44	-51.92	-53.21	-51.65	-57.71	-64.47	-72.03
Accounts Payable	-	44.89	22.87	52.67	178.24	-17.84	74.93	83.71	93.52	104.48
Capital Expenditure	-568.23	-576.07	-558.01	-632.81	-656.59	-867.92	-969.65	-1,083.29	-1,210.25	-1,352.09
UFCF	-220.68	-217.24	169.03	-187.23	260,240.90	60,292.08	67,292.80	75,179.56	83,990.66	93,834.43
WACC
PV UFCF						57,035.36	60,219.40	63,643.14	67,261.53	71,085.64
SUM PV UFCF										319,245.07

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	5.71
Free cash flow (t + 1)	95,711.12
Terminal Value	2,579,814.60
Present Value of Terminal Value	1,954,376.05

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	2,273,621.11
Net Debt	3,127.46
Equity Value	2,270,493.66
Shares Outstanding	202.40
Equity Value Per Share	11,217.85