Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Mayville Engineering Company, Inc. (MEC)

$7.65

+0.30 (+4.08%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 15.29 | 7.65 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 313.33354.53519.70357.61454.83518.20590.40672.67766.40873.18
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 30.1641.8230.8925.5924.3941.3447.1053.6661.1369.65
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 9.4321.36-2.11-6.50-7.395.376.126.977.949.05
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 20.7320.473332.0931.7835.9640.9846.6853.1960.60
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 0.083.0900.120.120.991.131.291.461.67
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 26.3952.3040.1942.0855.4256.8664.7873.8084.0995.80
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 35.3853.4045.6941.3770.1664.4073.3883.6095.25108.52
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 19.4945.9932.1733.5050.1247.4454.0561.5870.1679.93
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -11.26-17.88-25.80-7.79-39.31-25.31-28.84-32.86-37.43-42.65
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 7.65
Beta 0.528
Diluted Shares Outstanding 20.83
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 20.68
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.31%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 5.382
Total Debt 68.82
Total Equity 159.36
Total Capital 228.17
Debt Weighting 30.16
Equity Weighting 69.84
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 313.33354.53519.70357.61454.83518.20590.40672.67766.40873.18
EBITDA 30.1641.8230.8925.5924.3941.3447.1053.6661.1369.65
EBIT 9.4321.36-2.11-6.50-7.395.376.126.977.949.05
Tax Rate 0.00%-2.63%46.23%22.63%20.68%17.38%17.38%17.38%17.38%17.38%
EBIAT 9.4321.92-1.14-5.03-5.864.445.065.766.567.48
Depreciation 20.7320.473332.0931.7835.9640.9846.6853.1960.60
Accounts Receivable --25.9112.11-1.89-13.34-1.44-7.92-9.03-10.28-11.72
Inventories --18.027.714.33-28.795.75-8.97-10.22-11.65-13.27
Accounts Payable -26.50-13.821.3216.62-2.686.617.538.589.78
Capital Expenditure -11.26-17.88-25.80-7.79-39.31-25.31-28.84-32.86-37.43-42.65
UFCF 18.907.0812.0723.02-38.8916.726.917.878.9710.22
WACC
PV UFCF 16.016.336.917.538.22
SUM PV UFCF 45

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.45
Free cash flow (t + 1) 10.42
Terminal Value 425.32
Present Value of Terminal Value 342.11

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 387.11
Net Debt 68.70
Equity Value 318.41
Shares Outstanding 20.83
Equity Value Per Share 15.29