Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Mayville Engineering Company, Inc. (MEC)
$7.65
+0.30 (+4.08%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 313.33 | 354.53 | 519.70 | 357.61 | 454.83 | 518.20 | 590.40 | 672.67 | 766.40 | 873.18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 30.16 | 41.82 | 30.89 | 25.59 | 24.39 | 41.34 | 47.10 | 53.66 | 61.13 | 69.65 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 9.43 | 21.36 | -2.11 | -6.50 | -7.39 | 5.37 | 6.12 | 6.97 | 7.94 | 9.05 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 20.73 | 20.47 | 33 | 32.09 | 31.78 | 35.96 | 40.98 | 46.68 | 53.19 | 60.60 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 0.08 | 3.09 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.99 | 1.13 | 1.29 | 1.46 | 1.67 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 26.39 | 52.30 | 40.19 | 42.08 | 55.42 | 56.86 | 64.78 | 73.80 | 84.09 | 95.80 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 35.38 | 53.40 | 45.69 | 41.37 | 70.16 | 64.40 | 73.38 | 83.60 | 95.25 | 108.52 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 19.49 | 45.99 | 32.17 | 33.50 | 50.12 | 47.44 | 54.05 | 61.58 | 70.16 | 79.93 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -11.26 | -17.88 | -25.80 | -7.79 | -39.31 | -25.31 | -28.84 | -32.86 | -37.43 | -42.65 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 7.65 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.528 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 20.83 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 20.68 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.31% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 5.382 |
| Total Debt | 68.82 |
| Total Equity | 159.36 |
| Total Capital | 228.17 |
| Debt Weighting | 30.16 |
| Equity Weighting | 69.84 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 313.33 | 354.53 | 519.70 | 357.61 | 454.83 | 518.20 | 590.40 | 672.67 | 766.40 | 873.18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 30.16 | 41.82 | 30.89 | 25.59 | 24.39 | 41.34 | 47.10 | 53.66 | 61.13 | 69.65 |
| EBIT | 9.43 | 21.36 | -2.11 | -6.50 | -7.39 | 5.37 | 6.12 | 6.97 | 7.94 | 9.05 |
| Tax Rate | 0.00% | -2.63% | 46.23% | 22.63% | 20.68% | 17.38% | 17.38% | 17.38% | 17.38% | 17.38% |
| EBIAT | 9.43 | 21.92 | -1.14 | -5.03 | -5.86 | 4.44 | 5.06 | 5.76 | 6.56 | 7.48 |
| Depreciation | 20.73 | 20.47 | 33 | 32.09 | 31.78 | 35.96 | 40.98 | 46.68 | 53.19 | 60.60 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -25.91 | 12.11 | -1.89 | -13.34 | -1.44 | -7.92 | -9.03 | -10.28 | -11.72 |
| Inventories | - | -18.02 | 7.71 | 4.33 | -28.79 | 5.75 | -8.97 | -10.22 | -11.65 | -13.27 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 26.50 | -13.82 | 1.32 | 16.62 | -2.68 | 6.61 | 7.53 | 8.58 | 9.78 |
| Capital Expenditure | -11.26 | -17.88 | -25.80 | -7.79 | -39.31 | -25.31 | -28.84 | -32.86 | -37.43 | -42.65 |
| UFCF | 18.90 | 7.08 | 12.07 | 23.02 | -38.89 | 16.72 | 6.91 | 7.87 | 8.97 | 10.22 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 16.01 | 6.33 | 6.91 | 7.53 | 8.22 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 45 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 4.45 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 10.42 |
| Terminal Value | 425.32 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 342.11 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 387.11 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 68.70 |
| Equity Value | 318.41 |
| Shares Outstanding | 20.83 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 15.29 |