Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
MFA Financial, Inc. (MFA-PB)
$18.12
+0.17 (+0.95%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 347.88 | 430.76 | -555.87 | 337.22 | -83.91 | 19.04 | -4.32 | 0.98 | -0.22 | 0.05 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 535.81 | 713.79 | -410.63 | 455.86 | 36.46 | 18.48 | -4.19 | 0.95 | -0.22 | 0.05 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 533.99 | 710.47 | -407.03 | 453.67 | 37.01 | 18.36 | -4.17 | 0.95 | -0.21 | 0.05 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 1.83 | 3.32 | -3.60 | 2.18 | -0.54 | 0.12 | -0.03 | 0.01 | -0 | 0 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 51.97 | 70.63 | 814.35 | 304.70 | 334.18 | -16.11 | 3.66 | -0.83 | 0.19 | -0.04 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | 38.85 | 50.19 | 367.82 | -27.32 | 6.20 | -1.41 | 0.32 | -0.07 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 16.28 | 18.24 | 11.12 | 9.62 | 23.04 | -0.67 | 0.15 | -0.03 | 0.01 | -0 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -1.13 | -1.88 | -4.86 | -12.05 | -0.30 | -0.12 | 0.03 | -0.01 | 0 | -0 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 18.12 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.995 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 129.40 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 0.00 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 7.13% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 12.981 |
| Total Debt | 3,630.75 |
| Total Equity | 2,344.66 |
| Total Capital | 5,975.40 |
| Debt Weighting | 60.76 |
| Equity Weighting | 39.24 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 347.88 | 430.76 | -555.87 | 337.22 | -83.91 | 19.04 | -4.32 | 0.98 | -0.22 | 0.05 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 535.81 | 713.79 | -410.63 | 455.86 | 36.46 | 18.48 | -4.19 | 0.95 | -0.22 | 0.05 |
| EBIT | 533.99 | 710.47 | -407.03 | 453.67 | 37.01 | 18.36 | -4.17 | 0.95 | -0.21 | 0.05 |
| Tax Rate | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| EBIAT | 533.99 | 710.47 | -407.03 | 453.67 | 37.01 | 18.36 | -4.17 | 0.95 | -0.21 | 0.05 |
| Depreciation | 1.83 | 3.32 | -3.60 | 2.18 | -0.54 | 0.12 | -0.03 | 0.01 | -0 | 0 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | -11.34 | -317.63 | 395.14 | -33.52 | 7.61 | -1.73 | 0.39 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 1.96 | -7.12 | -1.49 | 13.42 | -23.71 | 0.83 | -0.19 | 0.04 | -0.01 |
| Capital Expenditure | -1.13 | -1.88 | -4.86 | -12.05 | -0.30 | -0.12 | 0.03 | -0.01 | 0 | -0 |
| UFCF | 534.68 | 713.87 | -422.62 | 430.97 | -268.05 | 389.79 | -36.86 | 8.36 | -1.90 | 0.43 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 356.20 | -30.78 | 6.38 | -1.32 | 0.27 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 330.75 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 9.43 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 0.44 |
| Terminal Value | 5.91 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 3.77 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 334.52 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 3,296.57 |
| Equity Value | -2,962.04 |
| Shares Outstanding | 129.40 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -22.89 |