Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Maple Leaf Foods Inc. (MFI.TO)

$25.83

+0.14 (+0.55%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -23.49 | 25.83 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 3,495.523,941.544,303.724,521.084,739.065,116.065,523.055,962.426,436.746,948.79
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 333.59301.31390.22376.66210.36399.31431.07465.36502.38542.35
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 207.52124.51193.95175.81-23.58173.88187.71202.64218.76236.17
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 126.07176.80196.27200.85233.94225.43243.36262.72283.62306.18
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 72.5897.29100.83162.0391.08126.81136.89147.78159.54172.23
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 177.24186.67193.13202.21273.66251.11271.08292.65315.93341.06
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 460.39504.55523.72547.89630.15650.31702.05757.90818.19883.28
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 343.87445.77501.53526.19485.11559.45603.95652703.86759.86
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -179.87-270.75-432.54-332.53-348.56-376.29-406.22-438.54-473.42-511.08
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 25.83
Beta 0.489
Diluted Shares Outstanding 123.60
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -4.32
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.30%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.611
Total Debt 1,893.30
Total Equity 3,192.59
Total Capital 5,085.89
Debt Weighting 37.23
Equity Weighting 62.77
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 3,495.523,941.544,303.724,521.084,739.065,116.065,523.055,962.426,436.746,948.79
EBITDA 333.59301.31390.22376.66210.36399.31431.07465.36502.38542.35
EBIT 207.52124.51193.95175.81-23.58173.88187.71202.64218.76236.17
Tax Rate 28.17%14.22%29.15%31.32%-4.32%19.71%19.71%19.71%19.71%19.71%
EBIAT 149.05106.81137.42120.75-24.59139.61150.72162.71175.65189.63
Depreciation 126.07176.80196.27200.85233.94225.43243.36262.72283.62306.18
Accounts Receivable --9.43-6.46-9.08-71.4622.56-19.98-21.57-23.28-25.13
Inventories --44.16-19.17-24.17-82.26-20.17-51.73-55.85-60.29-65.09
Accounts Payable -101.9055.7524.66-41.0874.3344.5048.0551.8755.99
Capital Expenditure -179.87-270.75-432.54-332.53-348.56-376.29-406.22-438.54-473.42-511.08
UFCF 95.2561.18-68.73-19.51-334.0165.48-39.34-42.47-45.85-49.50
WACC
PV UFCF 61.92-35.18-35.91-36.66-37.43
SUM PV UFCF -83.27

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.75
Free cash flow (t + 1) -50.49
Terminal Value -1,346.39
Present Value of Terminal Value -1,018.05

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -1,101.32
Net Debt 1,802.23
Equity Value -2,903.54
Shares Outstanding 123.60
Equity Value Per Share -23.49