Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Maple Leaf Foods Inc. (MFI.TO)

$20.65

+0.36 (+1.77%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -2.78 | 20.65 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 3,522.233,495.523,941.544,303.724,521.084,817.685,133.735,470.515,829.396,211.81
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 335.48276.06293.37385.93371.75405.22431.80460.13490.31522.48
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 218.25149.99116.57189.67170.89208.43222.11236.68252.20268.75
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 117.23126.07176.80196.27200.85196.78209.69223.45238.11253.73
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 203.4372.5897.29100.83162.03156.54166.81177.76189.42201.84
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 152.89177.24186.67193.13202.21222.64237.25252.81269.40287.07
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 385.10460.39504.55523.72547.89589.61628.29669.51713.43760.23
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 300.66343.87445.77501.53526.19510.43543.92579.60617.63658.14
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -142.24-179.87-270.75-432.54-295.04-314.40-335.02-357-380.42-405.37
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 20.65
Beta 0.479
Diluted Shares Outstanding 124.70
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 31.32
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.02%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.224
Total Debt 1,428.02
Total Equity 2,575.05
Total Capital 4,003.07
Debt Weighting 35.67
Equity Weighting 64.33
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 3,522.233,495.523,941.544,303.724,521.084,817.685,133.735,470.515,829.396,211.81
EBITDA 335.48276.06293.37385.93371.75405.22431.80460.13490.31522.48
EBIT 218.25149.99116.57189.67170.89208.43222.11236.68252.20268.75
Tax Rate 23.42%28.17%14.22%29.15%31.32%25.26%25.26%25.26%25.26%25.26%
EBIAT 167.13107.73100134.39117.38155.79166.01176.90188.51200.88
Depreciation 117.23126.07176.80196.27200.85196.78209.69223.45238.11253.73
Accounts Receivable --24.35-9.43-6.46-9.08-20.44-14.61-15.56-16.59-17.67
Inventories --75.29-44.16-19.17-24.17-41.73-38.68-41.22-43.92-46.80
Accounts Payable -43.21101.9055.7524.66-15.7633.4935.6838.0240.52
Capital Expenditure -142.25-179.87-270.75-432.54-295.04-314.40-335.02-357-380.42-405.37
UFCF 142.11-2.5054.37-71.7614.61-39.7420.8922.2623.7225.27
WACC
PV UFCF -38.0719.1719.5819.9920.41
SUM PV UFCF 41.07

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.37
Free cash flow (t + 1) 25.78
Terminal Value 1,087.66
Present Value of Terminal Value 878.24

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 919.31
Net Debt 1,265.98
Equity Value -346.68
Shares Outstanding 124.70
Equity Value Per Share -2.78