Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Mohawk Industries, Inc. (MHK)

$95.35

-2.65 (-2.70%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 152.97 | 95.35 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 9,970.679,552.2011,200.6111,737.0712,435.4013,175.2713,959.1814,789.7215,669.6716,601.98
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,366.911,244.131,938.57830.761,589.231,683.791,783.971,890.112,002.572,121.72
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 790.46636.621,346.86235.29889.82942.76998.851,058.281,121.241,187.96
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 576.45607.51591.71595.46699.41741.03785.12831.83881.32933.76
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 134.791,340.37591.90667.62722.86847.68898.12951.551,008.171,068.15
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,526.621,709.491,839.981,904.792,052.362,170.442,299.582,436.402,581.362,734.94
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 2,282.331,913.022,391.672,793.772,729.882,899.243,071.743,254.503,448.143,653.30
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 824.961,016.901,228.621,094.042,155.411,489.941,578.581,672.511,772.021,877.45
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -545.46-425.56-676.12-580.74-650.06-688.74-729.72-773.14-819.14-867.87
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 95.35
Beta 1.274
Diluted Shares Outstanding 64.06
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 86.27
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.69%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.759
Total Debt 3,732.22
Total Equity 6,108.31
Total Capital 9,840.53
Debt Weighting 37.93
Equity Weighting 62.07
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 9,970.679,552.2011,200.6111,737.0712,435.4013,175.2713,959.1814,789.7215,669.6716,601.98
EBITDA 1,366.911,244.131,938.57830.761,589.231,683.791,783.971,890.112,002.572,121.72
EBIT 790.46636.621,346.86235.29889.82942.76998.851,058.281,121.241,187.96
Tax Rate 0.71%11.77%19.91%86.27%29.67%29.67%29.67%29.67%29.67%29.67%
EBIAT 784.83561.691,078.7032.30625.85663.08702.54744.34788.62835.54
Depreciation 576.45607.51591.71595.46699.41741.03785.12831.83881.32933.76
Accounts Receivable --182.87-130.49-64.80-147.58-118.08-129.14-136.82-144.96-153.59
Inventories -369.31-478.65-402.0963.89-169.37-172.50-182.76-193.64-205.16
Accounts Payable -191.94211.72-134.581,061.37-665.4888.6593.9299.51105.43
Capital Expenditure -545.46-425.56-676.12-580.74-650.06-688.74-729.72-773.14-819.14-867.87
UFCF 815.821,122.02596.87-554.451,652.89-237.55544.95577.37611.72648.12
WACC
PV UFCF 1,652.89-223.43482.09480.41478.73477.07
SUM PV UFCF 1,694.87

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.32
Free cash flow (t + 1) 661.08
Terminal Value 15,302.81
Present Value of Terminal Value 11,264.10

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 12,958.96
Net Debt 3,159.36
Equity Value 9,799.60
Shares Outstanding 64.06
Equity Value Per Share 152.97