Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Mohawk Industries, Inc. (MHK)

$100.22

+3.86 (+4.01%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 143.55 | 100.22 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 9,983.639,970.679,552.2011,200.6111,737.0712,25712,799.9713,36713,959.1414,577.51
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,606.641,366.911,244.131,938.57830.761,647.641,720.631,796.851,876.451,959.58
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,084.88790.46636.621,346.86235.29968.021,010.911,055.691,102.451,151.29
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 521.76576.45607.51591.71595.46679.62709.73741.17774808.29
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 119.05134.791,340.37591.89667.62675.33705.25736.49769.12803.19
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,606.161,526.621,709.491,839.981,904.792,008.962,097.962,190.902,287.952,389.30
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 2,287.612,282.331,913.022,391.672,793.772,720.742,841.262,967.133,098.573,235.83
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 811.88824.961,016.901,228.621,094.041,160.541,211.951,265.641,321.711,380.26
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -794.11-545.46-425.56-676.12-580.74-707.58-738.92-771.66-805.84-841.54
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 100.22
Beta 1.280
Diluted Shares Outstanding 69.14
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 86.27
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.22%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.533
Total Debt 3,220.54
Total Equity 6,929.71
Total Capital 10,150.25
Debt Weighting 31.73
Equity Weighting 68.27
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 9,983.639,970.679,552.2011,200.6111,737.0712,25712,799.9713,36713,959.1414,577.51
EBITDA 1,606.641,366.911,244.131,938.57830.761,647.641,720.631,796.851,876.451,959.58
EBIT 1,084.88790.46636.621,346.86235.29968.021,010.911,055.691,102.451,151.29
Tax Rate 17.87%0.71%11.77%19.91%86.27%27.31%27.31%27.31%27.31%27.31%
EBIAT 891784.83561.691,078.7032.30703.69734.86767.42801.41836.91
Depreciation 521.76576.45607.51591.71595.46679.62709.73741.17774808.29
Accounts Receivable -79.54-182.87-130.49-64.80-104.18-88.99-92.94-97.05-101.35
Inventories -5.29369.31-478.65-402.0973.03-120.53-125.86-131.44-137.26
Accounts Payable -13.08191.94211.72-134.5866.5151.4153.6956.0758.55
Capital Expenditure -794.11-545.46-425.56-676.12-580.74-707.58-738.92-771.66-805.84-841.54
UFCF 618.66913.731,122.02596.87-554.45711.09547.56571.81597.14623.60
WACC
PV UFCF 667.19482.03472.31462.78453.45
SUM PV UFCF 2,537.76

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.58
Free cash flow (t + 1) 636.07
Terminal Value 13,887.97
Present Value of Terminal Value 10,098.58

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 12,636.33
Net Debt 2,710.91
Equity Value 9,925.42
Shares Outstanding 69.14
Equity Value Per Share 143.55