Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Mohawk Industries, Inc. (MHK)
$95.35
-2.65 (-2.70%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 9,970.67 | 9,552.20 | 11,200.61 | 11,737.07 | 12,435.40 | 13,175.27 | 13,959.18 | 14,789.72 | 15,669.67 | 16,601.98 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 1,366.91 | 1,244.13 | 1,938.57 | 830.76 | 1,589.23 | 1,683.79 | 1,783.97 | 1,890.11 | 2,002.57 | 2,121.72 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 790.46 | 636.62 | 1,346.86 | 235.29 | 889.82 | 942.76 | 998.85 | 1,058.28 | 1,121.24 | 1,187.96 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 576.45 | 607.51 | 591.71 | 595.46 | 699.41 | 741.03 | 785.12 | 831.83 | 881.32 | 933.76 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Total Cash | 134.79 | 1,340.37 | 591.90 | 667.62 | 722.86 | 847.68 | 898.12 | 951.55 | 1,008.17 | 1,068.15 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 1,526.62 | 1,709.49 | 1,839.98 | 1,904.79 | 2,052.36 | 2,170.44 | 2,299.58 | 2,436.40 | 2,581.36 | 2,734.94 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 2,282.33 | 1,913.02 | 2,391.67 | 2,793.77 | 2,729.88 | 2,899.24 | 3,071.74 | 3,254.50 | 3,448.14 | 3,653.30 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 824.96 | 1,016.90 | 1,228.62 | 1,094.04 | 2,155.41 | 1,489.94 | 1,578.58 | 1,672.51 | 1,772.02 | 1,877.45 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -545.46 | -425.56 | -676.12 | -580.74 | -650.06 | -688.74 | -729.72 | -773.14 | -819.14 | -867.87 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 95.35 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.274 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 64.06 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 86.27 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.69% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 9.759 |
Total Debt | 3,732.22 |
Total Equity | 6,108.31 |
Total Capital | 9,840.53 |
Debt Weighting | 37.93 |
Equity Weighting | 62.07 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 9,970.67 | 9,552.20 | 11,200.61 | 11,737.07 | 12,435.40 | 13,175.27 | 13,959.18 | 14,789.72 | 15,669.67 | 16,601.98 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 1,366.91 | 1,244.13 | 1,938.57 | 830.76 | 1,589.23 | 1,683.79 | 1,783.97 | 1,890.11 | 2,002.57 | 2,121.72 |
EBIT | 790.46 | 636.62 | 1,346.86 | 235.29 | 889.82 | 942.76 | 998.85 | 1,058.28 | 1,121.24 | 1,187.96 |
Tax Rate | 0.71% | 11.77% | 19.91% | 86.27% | 29.67% | 29.67% | 29.67% | 29.67% | 29.67% | 29.67% |
EBIAT | 784.83 | 561.69 | 1,078.70 | 32.30 | 625.85 | 663.08 | 702.54 | 744.34 | 788.62 | 835.54 |
Depreciation | 576.45 | 607.51 | 591.71 | 595.46 | 699.41 | 741.03 | 785.12 | 831.83 | 881.32 | 933.76 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -182.87 | -130.49 | -64.80 | -147.58 | -118.08 | -129.14 | -136.82 | -144.96 | -153.59 |
Inventories | - | 369.31 | -478.65 | -402.09 | 63.89 | -169.37 | -172.50 | -182.76 | -193.64 | -205.16 |
Accounts Payable | - | 191.94 | 211.72 | -134.58 | 1,061.37 | -665.48 | 88.65 | 93.92 | 99.51 | 105.43 |
Capital Expenditure | -545.46 | -425.56 | -676.12 | -580.74 | -650.06 | -688.74 | -729.72 | -773.14 | -819.14 | -867.87 |
UFCF | 815.82 | 1,122.02 | 596.87 | -554.45 | 1,652.89 | -237.55 | 544.95 | 577.37 | 611.72 | 648.12 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 1,652.89 | -223.43 | 482.09 | 480.41 | 478.73 | 477.07 | ||||
SUM PV UFCF | 1,694.87 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 6.32 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 661.08 |
Terminal Value | 15,302.81 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 11,264.10 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 12,958.96 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 3,159.36 |
Equity Value | 9,799.60 |
Shares Outstanding | 64.06 |
Equity Value Per Share | 152.97 |