Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Mohawk Industries, Inc. (MHK)

$95.35

-2.65 (-2.70%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 152.97 | 95.35 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Revenue	9,970.67	9,552.20	11,200.61	11,737.07	12,435.40	13,175.27	13,959.18	14,789.72	15,669.67	16,601.98
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	1,366.91	1,244.13	1,938.57	830.76	1,589.23	1,683.79	1,783.97	1,890.11	2,002.57	2,121.72
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	790.46	636.62	1,346.86	235.29	889.82	942.76	998.85	1,058.28	1,121.24	1,187.96
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	576.45	607.51	591.71	595.46	699.41	741.03	785.12	831.83	881.32	933.76
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Total Cash	134.79	1,340.37	591.90	667.62	722.86	847.68	898.12	951.55	1,008.17	1,068.15
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	1,526.62	1,709.49	1,839.98	1,904.79	2,052.36	2,170.44	2,299.58	2,436.40	2,581.36	2,734.94
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	2,282.33	1,913.02	2,391.67	2,793.77	2,729.88	2,899.24	3,071.74	3,254.50	3,448.14	3,653.30
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	824.96	1,016.90	1,228.62	1,094.04	2,155.41	1,489.94	1,578.58	1,672.51	1,772.02	1,877.45
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-545.46	-425.56	-676.12	-580.74	-650.06	-688.74	-729.72	-773.14	-819.14	-867.87
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 95.35
Beta	1.274
Diluted Shares Outstanding	64.06
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	86.27
After-tax Cost of Debt	0.69%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	9.759
Total Debt	3,732.22
Total Equity	6,108.31
Total Capital	9,840.53
Debt Weighting	37.93
Equity Weighting	62.07
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Revenue	9,970.67	9,552.20	11,200.61	11,737.07	12,435.40	13,175.27	13,959.18	14,789.72	15,669.67	16,601.98
EBITDA	1,366.91	1,244.13	1,938.57	830.76	1,589.23	1,683.79	1,783.97	1,890.11	2,002.57	2,121.72
EBIT	790.46	636.62	1,346.86	235.29	889.82	942.76	998.85	1,058.28	1,121.24	1,187.96
Tax Rate	0.71%	11.77%	19.91%	86.27%	29.67%	29.67%	29.67%	29.67%	29.67%	29.67%
EBIAT	784.83	561.69	1,078.70	32.30	625.85	663.08	702.54	744.34	788.62	835.54
Depreciation	576.45	607.51	591.71	595.46	699.41	741.03	785.12	831.83	881.32	933.76
Accounts Receivable	-	-182.87	-130.49	-64.80	-147.58	-118.08	-129.14	-136.82	-144.96	-153.59
Inventories	-	369.31	-478.65	-402.09	63.89	-169.37	-172.50	-182.76	-193.64	-205.16
Accounts Payable	-	191.94	211.72	-134.58	1,061.37	-665.48	88.65	93.92	99.51	105.43
Capital Expenditure	-545.46	-425.56	-676.12	-580.74	-650.06	-688.74	-729.72	-773.14	-819.14	-867.87
UFCF	815.82	1,122.02	596.87	-554.45	1,652.89	-237.55	544.95	577.37	611.72	648.12
WACC
PV UFCF					1,652.89	-223.43	482.09	480.41	478.73	477.07
SUM PV UFCF										1,694.87

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	6.32
Free cash flow (t + 1)	661.08
Terminal Value	15,302.81
Present Value of Terminal Value	11,264.10

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	12,958.96
Net Debt	3,159.36
Equity Value	9,799.60
Shares Outstanding	64.06
Equity Value Per Share	152.97