Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Mohawk Industries, Inc. (MHK)
$100.22
+3.86 (+4.01%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 9,983.63 | 9,970.67 | 9,552.20 | 11,200.61 | 11,737.07 | 12,257 | 12,799.97 | 13,367 | 13,959.14 | 14,577.51 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 1,606.64 | 1,366.91 | 1,244.13 | 1,938.57 | 830.76 | 1,647.64 | 1,720.63 | 1,796.85 | 1,876.45 | 1,959.58 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 1,084.88 | 790.46 | 636.62 | 1,346.86 | 235.29 | 968.02 | 1,010.91 | 1,055.69 | 1,102.45 | 1,151.29 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 521.76 | 576.45 | 607.51 | 591.71 | 595.46 | 679.62 | 709.73 | 741.17 | 774 | 808.29 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 119.05 | 134.79 | 1,340.37 | 591.89 | 667.62 | 675.33 | 705.25 | 736.49 | 769.12 | 803.19 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 1,606.16 | 1,526.62 | 1,709.49 | 1,839.98 | 1,904.79 | 2,008.96 | 2,097.96 | 2,190.90 | 2,287.95 | 2,389.30 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 2,287.61 | 2,282.33 | 1,913.02 | 2,391.67 | 2,793.77 | 2,720.74 | 2,841.26 | 2,967.13 | 3,098.57 | 3,235.83 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 811.88 | 824.96 | 1,016.90 | 1,228.62 | 1,094.04 | 1,160.54 | 1,211.95 | 1,265.64 | 1,321.71 | 1,380.26 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -794.11 | -545.46 | -425.56 | -676.12 | -580.74 | -707.58 | -738.92 | -771.66 | -805.84 | -841.54 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 100.22 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.280 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 69.14 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 86.27 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.22% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 9.533 |
Total Debt | 3,220.54 |
Total Equity | 6,929.71 |
Total Capital | 10,150.25 |
Debt Weighting | 31.73 |
Equity Weighting | 68.27 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 9,983.63 | 9,970.67 | 9,552.20 | 11,200.61 | 11,737.07 | 12,257 | 12,799.97 | 13,367 | 13,959.14 | 14,577.51 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 1,606.64 | 1,366.91 | 1,244.13 | 1,938.57 | 830.76 | 1,647.64 | 1,720.63 | 1,796.85 | 1,876.45 | 1,959.58 |
EBIT | 1,084.88 | 790.46 | 636.62 | 1,346.86 | 235.29 | 968.02 | 1,010.91 | 1,055.69 | 1,102.45 | 1,151.29 |
Tax Rate | 17.87% | 0.71% | 11.77% | 19.91% | 86.27% | 27.31% | 27.31% | 27.31% | 27.31% | 27.31% |
EBIAT | 891 | 784.83 | 561.69 | 1,078.70 | 32.30 | 703.69 | 734.86 | 767.42 | 801.41 | 836.91 |
Depreciation | 521.76 | 576.45 | 607.51 | 591.71 | 595.46 | 679.62 | 709.73 | 741.17 | 774 | 808.29 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 79.54 | -182.87 | -130.49 | -64.80 | -104.18 | -88.99 | -92.94 | -97.05 | -101.35 |
Inventories | - | 5.29 | 369.31 | -478.65 | -402.09 | 73.03 | -120.53 | -125.86 | -131.44 | -137.26 |
Accounts Payable | - | 13.08 | 191.94 | 211.72 | -134.58 | 66.51 | 51.41 | 53.69 | 56.07 | 58.55 |
Capital Expenditure | -794.11 | -545.46 | -425.56 | -676.12 | -580.74 | -707.58 | -738.92 | -771.66 | -805.84 | -841.54 |
UFCF | 618.66 | 913.73 | 1,122.02 | 596.87 | -554.45 | 711.09 | 547.56 | 571.81 | 597.14 | 623.60 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 667.19 | 482.03 | 472.31 | 462.78 | 453.45 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 2,537.76 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 6.58 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 636.07 |
Terminal Value | 13,887.97 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 10,098.58 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 12,636.33 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 2,710.91 |
Equity Value | 9,925.42 |
Shares Outstanding | 69.14 |
Equity Value Per Share | 143.55 |