Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limit... (MLCO)

$11.89

+0.22 (+1.89%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -17.37 | 11.89 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	5,158.51	5,736.80	1,727.92	2,012.36	1,349.98	1,096.44	890.51	723.27	587.43	477.10
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	1,180.03	1,342.82	-307.04	121.52	-26.63	71.44	58.03	47.13	38.28	31.09
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	615.95	691.61	-925.57	-458.32	-319.90	-166.75	-135.43	-110	-89.34	-72.56
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	564.08	651.20	618.53	579.85	293.27	238.19	193.46	157.12	127.61	103.65
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	1,528.16	1,444.35	1,755.35	1,652.89	1,812.73	817.51	663.97	539.27	437.99	355.73
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	249.69	284.77	130.38	54.87	56.62	53.22	43.23	35.11	28.52	23.16
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	40.83	43.96	37.28	29.59	26.42	15.66	12.72	10.33	8.39	6.82
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	24.88	21.88	9.48	5.99	6.73	4.84	3.93	3.20	2.60	2.11
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-615.11	-449.92	-463.87	-679.39	-271.26	-220.31	-178.93	-145.33	-118.03	-95.87
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 11.89
Beta	1.154
Diluted Shares Outstanding	478.03
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	14.78
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.68%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	8.926
Total Debt	8,714.35
Total Equity	5,683.77
Total Capital	14,398.12
Debt Weighting	60.52
Equity Weighting	39.48
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	5,158.51	5,736.80	1,727.92	2,012.36	1,349.98	1,096.44	890.51	723.27	587.43	477.10
EBITDA	1,180.03	1,342.82	-307.04	121.52	-26.63	71.44	58.03	47.13	38.28	31.09
EBIT	615.95	691.61	-925.57	-458.32	-319.90	-166.75	-135.43	-110	-89.34	-72.56
Tax Rate	0.54%	7.30%	13.31%	14.87%	14.78%	10.16%	10.16%	10.16%	10.16%	10.16%
EBIAT	612.65	641.11	-802.35	-390.15	-272.61	-149.81	-121.67	-98.82	-80.26	-65.19
Depreciation	564.08	651.20	618.53	579.85	293.27	238.19	193.46	157.12	127.61	103.65
Accounts Receivable	-	-35.08	154.39	75.51	-1.75	3.40	10	8.12	6.59	5.36
Inventories	-	-3.13	6.68	7.69	3.17	10.75	2.94	2.39	1.94	1.58
Accounts Payable	-	-3	-12.40	-3.49	0.74	-1.89	-0.91	-0.74	-0.60	-0.49
Capital Expenditure	-615.11	-449.92	-463.87	-679.39	-271.26	-220.31	-178.93	-145.33	-118.03	-95.87
UFCF	561.62	801.19	-499.01	-410	-248.43	-119.66	-95.12	-77.26	-62.75	-50.96
WACC
PV UFCF						-113.15	-85.06	-65.33	-50.17	-38.53
SUM PV UFCF										-352.24

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	5.75
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-51.98
Terminal Value	-1,386.15
Present Value of Terminal Value	-1,048.12

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-1,400.36
Net Debt	6,901.62
Equity Value	-8,301.98
Shares Outstanding	478.03
Equity Value Per Share	-17.37