Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Mueller Industries, Inc. (MLI)

$59.44

+0.07 (+0.12%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 56.38 | 59.44 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,266.072,507.882,430.622,398.043,769.344,367.115,059.665,862.056,791.687,868.74
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 176.93200.17204.61258.90687.48465.03538.77624.22723.21837.90
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 142.98160.61161.91214.06642.09395.98458.77531.53615.82713.48
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 33.9439.5642.6944.8445.3969.058092.69107.39124.42
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 196.70130.66146.31119.0787.92237.64275.32318.99369.57428.18
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 244.80273.42269.94357.53471.86526.14609.57706.24818.24948
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 327.90329.80292.11315430.24560.63649.54752.55871.891,010.16
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 102.50103.7585.64147.74180.79202.12234.17271.31314.34364.19
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -46.13-38.48-31.16-43.89-31.83-65.74-76.17-88.24-102.24-118.45
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 59.44
Beta 1.146
Diluted Shares Outstanding 56.80
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 26.92
After-tax Cost of Debt 22.54%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.212
Total Debt 24.99
Total Equity 3,376.07
Total Capital 3,401.06
Debt Weighting 0.73
Equity Weighting 99.27
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,266.072,507.882,430.622,398.043,769.344,367.115,059.665,862.056,791.687,868.74
EBITDA 176.93200.17204.61258.90687.48465.03538.77624.22723.21837.90
EBIT 142.98160.61161.91214.06642.09395.98458.77531.53615.82713.48
Tax Rate 32.59%30.55%39.20%33.32%26.92%32.52%32.52%32.52%32.52%32.52%
EBIAT 96.39111.5498.44142.74469.21267.22309.59358.69415.57481.48
Depreciation 33.9439.5642.6944.8445.3969.058092.69107.39124.42
Accounts Receivable --28.623.47-87.59-114.33-54.28-83.44-96.67-112-129.76
Inventories --1.8937.69-22.90-115.24-130.39-88.91-103.01-119.34-138.27
Accounts Payable -1.25-18.1162.1033.0521.3332.0537.1443.0349.85
Capital Expenditure -46.13-38.48-31.16-43.88-31.83-65.74-76.17-88.24-102.24-118.45
UFCF 84.2183.35133.0295.31286.25107.19173.14200.60232.41269.26
WACC
PV UFCF 98.06144.90153.58162.78172.54
SUM PV UFCF 731.86

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.31
Free cash flow (t + 1) 274.65
Terminal Value 3,757.16
Present Value of Terminal Value 2,407.47

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 3,139.33
Net Debt -62.94
Equity Value 3,202.26
Shares Outstanding 56.80
Equity Value Per Share 56.38