Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Mueller Industries, Inc. (MLI)
$68.42
+0.03 (+0.04%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 2,266.07 | 2,507.88 | 2,430.62 | 2,398.04 | 3,769.34 | 4,367.11 | 5,059.66 | 5,862.05 | 6,791.68 | 7,868.74 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 176.93 | 200.17 | 204.61 | 258.90 | 687.48 | 465.03 | 538.77 | 624.22 | 723.21 | 837.90 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 142.98 | 160.61 | 161.91 | 214.06 | 642.09 | 395.98 | 458.77 | 531.53 | 615.82 | 713.48 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 33.94 | 39.56 | 42.69 | 44.84 | 45.39 | 69.05 | 80 | 92.69 | 107.39 | 124.42 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Total Cash | 196.70 | 130.66 | 146.31 | 119.07 | 87.92 | 237.64 | 275.32 | 318.99 | 369.57 | 428.18 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 244.80 | 273.42 | 269.94 | 357.53 | 471.86 | 526.14 | 609.57 | 706.24 | 818.24 | 948 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 327.90 | 329.80 | 292.11 | 315 | 430.24 | 560.63 | 649.54 | 752.55 | 871.89 | 1,010.16 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 102.50 | 103.75 | 85.64 | 147.74 | 180.79 | 202.12 | 234.17 | 271.31 | 314.34 | 364.19 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -46.13 | -38.48 | -31.16 | -43.89 | -31.83 | -65.74 | -76.17 | -88.24 | -102.24 | -118.45 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 68.42 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.143 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 56.80 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 26.92 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 22.54% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 8.243 |
Total Debt | 24.99 |
Total Equity | 3,886.12 |
Total Capital | 3,911.11 |
Debt Weighting | 0.64 |
Equity Weighting | 99.36 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 2,266.07 | 2,507.88 | 2,430.62 | 2,398.04 | 3,769.34 | 4,367.11 | 5,059.66 | 5,862.05 | 6,791.68 | 7,868.74 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 176.93 | 200.17 | 204.61 | 258.90 | 687.48 | 465.03 | 538.77 | 624.22 | 723.21 | 837.90 |
EBIT | 142.98 | 160.61 | 161.91 | 214.06 | 642.09 | 395.98 | 458.77 | 531.53 | 615.82 | 713.48 |
Tax Rate | 32.59% | 30.55% | 39.20% | 33.32% | 26.92% | 32.52% | 32.52% | 32.52% | 32.52% | 32.52% |
EBIAT | 96.39 | 111.54 | 98.44 | 142.74 | 469.21 | 267.22 | 309.59 | 358.69 | 415.57 | 481.48 |
Depreciation | 33.94 | 39.56 | 42.69 | 44.84 | 45.39 | 69.05 | 80 | 92.69 | 107.39 | 124.42 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -28.62 | 3.47 | -87.59 | -114.33 | -54.28 | -83.44 | -96.67 | -112 | -129.76 |
Inventories | - | -1.89 | 37.69 | -22.90 | -115.24 | -130.39 | -88.91 | -103.01 | -119.34 | -138.27 |
Accounts Payable | - | 1.25 | -18.11 | 62.10 | 33.05 | 21.33 | 32.05 | 37.14 | 43.03 | 49.85 |
Capital Expenditure | -46.13 | -38.48 | -31.16 | -43.88 | -31.83 | -65.74 | -76.17 | -88.24 | -102.24 | -118.45 |
UFCF | 84.21 | 83.35 | 133.02 | 95.31 | 286.25 | 107.19 | 173.14 | 200.60 | 232.41 | 269.26 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 98.95 | 147.54 | 157.79 | 168.75 | 180.48 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 753.51 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 8.33 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 274.65 |
Terminal Value | 4,338.84 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 2,908.24 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 3,661.74 |
---|---|
Net Debt | -62.94 |
Equity Value | 3,724.68 |
Shares Outstanding | 56.80 |
Equity Value Per Share | 65.58 |