Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Mueller Industries, Inc. (MLI)

$59.44

+0.07 (+0.12%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 56.38 | 59.44 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	2,266.07	2,507.88	2,430.62	2,398.04	3,769.34	4,367.11	5,059.66	5,862.05	6,791.68	7,868.74
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	176.93	200.17	204.61	258.90	687.48	465.03	538.77	624.22	723.21	837.90
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	142.98	160.61	161.91	214.06	642.09	395.98	458.77	531.53	615.82	713.48
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	33.94	39.56	42.69	44.84	45.39	69.05	80	92.69	107.39	124.42
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	196.70	130.66	146.31	119.07	87.92	237.64	275.32	318.99	369.57	428.18
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	244.80	273.42	269.94	357.53	471.86	526.14	609.57	706.24	818.24	948
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	327.90	329.80	292.11	315	430.24	560.63	649.54	752.55	871.89	1,010.16
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	102.50	103.75	85.64	147.74	180.79	202.12	234.17	271.31	314.34	364.19
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-46.13	-38.48	-31.16	-43.89	-31.83	-65.74	-76.17	-88.24	-102.24	-118.45
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 59.44
Beta	1.146
Diluted Shares Outstanding	56.80
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	26.92
After-tax Cost of Debt	22.54%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	9.212
Total Debt	24.99
Total Equity	3,376.07
Total Capital	3,401.06
Debt Weighting	0.73
Equity Weighting	99.27
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	2,266.07	2,507.88	2,430.62	2,398.04	3,769.34	4,367.11	5,059.66	5,862.05	6,791.68	7,868.74
EBITDA	176.93	200.17	204.61	258.90	687.48	465.03	538.77	624.22	723.21	837.90
EBIT	142.98	160.61	161.91	214.06	642.09	395.98	458.77	531.53	615.82	713.48
Tax Rate	32.59%	30.55%	39.20%	33.32%	26.92%	32.52%	32.52%	32.52%	32.52%	32.52%
EBIAT	96.39	111.54	98.44	142.74	469.21	267.22	309.59	358.69	415.57	481.48
Depreciation	33.94	39.56	42.69	44.84	45.39	69.05	80	92.69	107.39	124.42
Accounts Receivable	-	-28.62	3.47	-87.59	-114.33	-54.28	-83.44	-96.67	-112	-129.76
Inventories	-	-1.89	37.69	-22.90	-115.24	-130.39	-88.91	-103.01	-119.34	-138.27
Accounts Payable	-	1.25	-18.11	62.10	33.05	21.33	32.05	37.14	43.03	49.85
Capital Expenditure	-46.13	-38.48	-31.16	-43.88	-31.83	-65.74	-76.17	-88.24	-102.24	-118.45
UFCF	84.21	83.35	133.02	95.31	286.25	107.19	173.14	200.60	232.41	269.26
WACC
PV UFCF						98.06	144.90	153.58	162.78	172.54
SUM PV UFCF										731.86

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	9.31
Free cash flow (t + 1)	274.65
Terminal Value	3,757.16
Present Value of Terminal Value	2,407.47

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	3,139.33
Net Debt	-62.94
Equity Value	3,202.26
Shares Outstanding	56.80
Equity Value Per Share	56.38