Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (MLM)

$336.83

+3.38 (+1.01%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 270.61 | 336.83 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	4,244.27	4,739.10	4,729.90	5,414	6,160.70	6,772.46	7,444.97	8,184.25	8,996.95	9,890.35
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	712.77	877.50	1,400.80	1,450.10	1,776.60	1,632.81	1,794.95	1,973.19	2,169.12	2,384.52
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	712.77	877.50	1,007.30	998.40	1,270.60	1,071.24	1,177.61	1,294.55	1,423.10	1,564.41
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	-	-	393.50	451.70	506	561.57	617.34	678.64	746.03	820.11
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	44.89	21	207.30	258.40	1,062.60	377.96	415.50	456.75	502.11	551.97
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	523.28	573.70	575.10	774	785.90	862.09	947.69	1,041.80	1,145.25	1,258.97
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	663.04	690.80	709	752.60	873.70	992.45	1,091	1,199.34	1,318.43	1,449.35
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	210.81	229.60	207.80	356.20	385	366.17	402.53	442.50	486.44	534.74
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-375.95	-393.50	-359.70	-423.10	-481.80	-547.23	-601.58	-661.31	-726.98	-799.17
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 336.83
Beta	0.867
Diluted Shares Outstanding	62.50
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	20.56
After-tax Cost of Debt	2.66%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	7.471
Total Debt	5,040
Total Equity	21,051.88
Total Capital	26,091.88
Debt Weighting	19.32
Equity Weighting	80.68
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	4,244.27	4,739.10	4,729.90	5,414	6,160.70	6,772.46	7,444.97	8,184.25	8,996.95	9,890.35
EBITDA	712.77	877.50	1,400.80	1,450.10	1,776.60	1,632.81	1,794.95	1,973.19	2,169.12	2,384.52
EBIT	712.77	877.50	1,007.30	998.40	1,270.60	1,071.24	1,177.61	1,294.55	1,423.10	1,564.41
Tax Rate	18.41%	18.23%	18.92%	17.88%	20.56%	18.80%	18.80%	18.80%	18.80%	18.80%
EBIAT	581.52	717.55	816.67	819.84	1,009.40	869.83	956.20	1,051.15	1,155.53	1,270.27
Depreciation	-	-	393.50	451.70	506	561.57	617.34	678.64	746.03	820.11
Accounts Receivable	-	-50.42	-1.40	-198.90	-11.90	-76.19	-85.61	-94.11	-103.45	-113.72
Inventories	-	-27.76	-18.20	-43.60	-121.10	-118.75	-98.55	-108.34	-119.09	-130.92
Accounts Payable	-	18.79	-21.80	148.40	28.80	-18.83	36.36	39.97	43.94	48.30
Capital Expenditure	-375.95	-393.50	-359.70	-423.10	-481.80	-547.23	-601.58	-661.31	-726.98	-799.17
UFCF	205.56	264.65	809.07	754.34	929.40	670.39	824.16	906	995.97	1,094.87
WACC
PV UFCF						629.24	726.09	749.19	773.03	797.63
SUM PV UFCF										3,675.17

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	6.54
Free cash flow (t + 1)	1,116.77
Terminal Value	24,598.40
Present Value of Terminal Value	17,920.22

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	21,595.39
Net Debt	4,682
Equity Value	16,913.39
Shares Outstanding	62.50
Equity Value Per Share	270.61