Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Novatech Industries (MLNOV.PA)
7 €
0.00 (0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
Revenue | 28.60 | 43.70 | 42.60 | 38.80 | 36.50 | 39.73 | 43.25 | 47.08 | 51.25 | 55.79 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | -0.38 | -1.05 | 0.59 | 0.76 | -1.23 | -0.30 | -0.33 | -0.35 | -0.39 | -0.42 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | -0.60 | -1.60 | 0.30 | 0.40 | -1.90 | -0.73 | -0.80 | -0.87 | -0.95 | -1.03 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 0.22 | 0.55 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.67 | 0.43 | 0.47 | 0.52 | 0.56 | 0.61 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
Total Cash | 1.51 | 1.13 | 1.58 | 2.84 | 2.89 | 2.13 | 2.32 | 2.52 | 2.75 | 2.99 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 7.08 | 7.24 | 7.11 | 7.11 | 8.46 | 7.91 | 8.61 | 9.37 | 10.20 | 11.10 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 9.05 | 8.14 | 8 | 8.82 | 11.27 | 9.75 | 10.61 | 11.55 | 12.57 | 13.69 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 5.28 | 5.92 | 6.27 | 4.84 | 7.56 | 6.35 | 6.91 | 7.53 | 8.19 | 8.92 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -0.13 | -0.44 | -0.15 | -1.34 | -2.28 | -0.91 | -1 | -1.08 | -1.18 | -1.28 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 7 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.719 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 5.00 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | -1.48% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 6.285 |
Total Debt | 6.40 |
Total Equity | 7 |
Total Capital | 13.40 |
Debt Weighting | 47.76 |
Equity Weighting | 52.24 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
Revenue | 28.60 | 43.70 | 42.60 | 38.80 | 36.50 | 39.73 | 43.25 | 47.08 | 51.25 | 55.79 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | -0.38 | -1.05 | 0.59 | 0.76 | -1.23 | -0.30 | -0.33 | -0.35 | -0.39 | -0.42 |
EBIT | -0.60 | -1.60 | 0.30 | 0.40 | -1.90 | -0.73 | -0.80 | -0.87 | -0.95 | -1.03 |
Tax Rate | 25.00% | 53.85% | -80.00% | -33.33% | 5.00% | -5.90% | -5.90% | -5.90% | -5.90% | -5.90% |
EBIAT | -0.45 | -0.74 | 0.54 | 0.53 | -1.80 | -0.78 | -0.85 | -0.92 | -1 | -1.09 |
Depreciation | 0.22 | 0.55 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.67 | 0.43 | 0.47 | 0.52 | 0.56 | 0.61 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -0.16 | 0.13 | 0 | -1.35 | 0.55 | -0.70 | -0.76 | -0.83 | -0.90 |
Inventories | - | 0.91 | 0.14 | -0.82 | -2.45 | 1.52 | -0.86 | -0.94 | -1.02 | -1.11 |
Accounts Payable | - | 0.64 | 0.35 | -1.43 | 2.72 | -1.21 | 0.56 | 0.61 | 0.67 | 0.73 |
Capital Expenditure | -0.13 | -0.44 | -0.15 | -1.34 | -2.28 | -0.91 | -1 | -1.08 | -1.18 | -1.28 |
UFCF | -0.36 | 0.76 | 1.30 | -2.70 | -4.49 | -0.39 | -2.37 | -2.58 | -2.81 | -3.06 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | -0.38 | -2.25 | -2.39 | -2.54 | -2.69 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | -10.25 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 2.58 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | -3.12 |
Terminal Value | -537.54 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | -473.26 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | -483.51 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 3.55 |
Equity Value | -487.06 |
Shares Outstanding | 1 |
Equity Value Per Share | -487.06 |