Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Novatech Industries (MLNOV.PA)
5 €
0.00 (-%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Revenue | 28.60 | 43.70 | 42.60 | 38.80 | 36.50 | 39.73 | 43.25 | 47.08 | 51.25 | 55.79 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -0.38 | -1.05 | 0.59 | 0.76 | -1.23 | -0.30 | -0.33 | -0.35 | -0.39 | -0.42 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -0.60 | -1.60 | 0.30 | 0.40 | -1.90 | -0.73 | -0.80 | -0.87 | -0.95 | -1.03 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 0.22 | 0.55 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.67 | 0.43 | 0.47 | 0.52 | 0.56 | 0.61 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Total Cash | 1.51 | 1.13 | 1.58 | 2.84 | 2.89 | 2.13 | 2.32 | 2.52 | 2.75 | 2.99 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 7.08 | 7.24 | 7.11 | 7.11 | 8.46 | 7.91 | 8.61 | 9.37 | 10.20 | 11.10 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 9.05 | 8.14 | 8 | 8.82 | 11.27 | 9.75 | 10.61 | 11.55 | 12.57 | 13.69 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 5.28 | 5.92 | 6.27 | 4.84 | 7.56 | 6.35 | 6.91 | 7.53 | 8.19 | 8.92 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -0.13 | -0.44 | -0.15 | -1.34 | -2.28 | -0.91 | -1 | -1.08 | -1.18 | -1.28 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 5 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.951 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 5.00 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | -1.48% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.193 |
| Total Debt | 6.40 |
| Total Equity | 5 |
| Total Capital | 11.40 |
| Debt Weighting | 56.14 |
| Equity Weighting | 43.86 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Revenue | 28.60 | 43.70 | 42.60 | 38.80 | 36.50 | 39.73 | 43.25 | 47.08 | 51.25 | 55.79 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -0.38 | -1.05 | 0.59 | 0.76 | -1.23 | -0.30 | -0.33 | -0.35 | -0.39 | -0.42 |
| EBIT | -0.60 | -1.60 | 0.30 | 0.40 | -1.90 | -0.73 | -0.80 | -0.87 | -0.95 | -1.03 |
| Tax Rate | 25.00% | 53.85% | -80.00% | -33.33% | 5.00% | -5.90% | -5.90% | -5.90% | -5.90% | -5.90% |
| EBIAT | -0.45 | -0.74 | 0.54 | 0.53 | -1.80 | -0.78 | -0.85 | -0.92 | -1 | -1.09 |
| Depreciation | 0.22 | 0.55 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.67 | 0.43 | 0.47 | 0.52 | 0.56 | 0.61 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -0.16 | 0.13 | 0 | -1.35 | 0.55 | -0.70 | -0.76 | -0.83 | -0.90 |
| Inventories | - | 0.91 | 0.14 | -0.82 | -2.45 | 1.52 | -0.86 | -0.94 | -1.02 | -1.11 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 0.64 | 0.35 | -1.43 | 2.72 | -1.21 | 0.56 | 0.61 | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| Capital Expenditure | -0.13 | -0.44 | -0.15 | -1.34 | -2.28 | -0.91 | -1 | -1.08 | -1.18 | -1.28 |
| UFCF | -0.36 | 0.76 | 1.30 | -2.70 | -4.49 | -0.39 | -2.37 | -2.58 | -2.81 | -3.06 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -0.38 | -2.24 | -2.38 | -2.52 | -2.67 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -10.19 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 2.76 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -3.12 |
| Terminal Value | -410.23 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -358.02 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -368.21 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 3.55 |
| Equity Value | -371.76 |
| Shares Outstanding | 1 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -371.76 |