Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Miller Industries, Inc. (MLR)
$35.455
+2.21 (+6.63%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 711.71 | 818.17 | 651.29 | 717.48 | 848.46 | 897.20 | 948.74 | 1,003.25 | 1,060.89 | 1,121.84 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 51.29 | 61.89 | 48.91 | 34.16 | 40.87 | 57.17 | 60.45 | 63.92 | 67.60 | 71.48 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 43.54 | 52.76 | 39.31 | 23.12 | 29.11 | 45.32 | 47.92 | 50.68 | 53.59 | 56.67 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 7.74 | 9.13 | 9.60 | 11.04 | 11.76 | 11.85 | 12.53 | 13.25 | 14.01 | 14.81 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 27.04 | 26.07 | 57.52 | 54.33 | 80.31 | 58.96 | 62.34 | 65.92 | 69.71 | 73.72 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 149.14 | 168.62 | 141.64 | 153.98 | 177.66 | 189.69 | 200.59 | 212.11 | 224.30 | 237.19 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 93.77 | 87.97 | 83.94 | 114.91 | 153.66 | 127.30 | 134.61 | 142.34 | 150.52 | 159.17 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 98.22 | 95.75 | 85.53 | 119.03 | 125.50 | 125.64 | 132.86 | 140.49 | 148.56 | 157.10 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -13.34 | -17.39 | -17.50 | -9.15 | -28.94 | -20.41 | -21.58 | -22.82 | -24.13 | -25.52 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 35.455 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.050 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 11.42 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 20.93 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 5.82% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.655 |
| Total Debt | 45.91 |
| Total Equity | 404.79 |
| Total Capital | 450.70 |
| Debt Weighting | 10.19 |
| Equity Weighting | 89.81 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 711.71 | 818.17 | 651.29 | 717.48 | 848.46 | 897.20 | 948.74 | 1,003.25 | 1,060.89 | 1,121.84 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 51.29 | 61.89 | 48.91 | 34.16 | 40.87 | 57.17 | 60.45 | 63.92 | 67.60 | 71.48 |
| EBIT | 43.54 | 52.76 | 39.31 | 23.12 | 29.11 | 45.32 | 47.92 | 50.68 | 53.59 | 56.67 |
| Tax Rate | 19.00% | 22.38% | 21.70% | 25.32% | 20.93% | 21.87% | 21.87% | 21.87% | 21.87% | 21.87% |
| EBIAT | 35.27 | 40.96 | 30.78 | 17.27 | 23.02 | 35.41 | 37.44 | 39.60 | 41.87 | 44.28 |
| Depreciation | 7.74 | 9.13 | 9.60 | 11.04 | 11.76 | 11.85 | 12.53 | 13.25 | 14.01 | 14.81 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -19.48 | 26.98 | -12.34 | -23.69 | -12.03 | -10.90 | -11.52 | -12.19 | -12.89 |
| Inventories | - | 5.80 | 4.03 | -30.97 | -38.75 | 26.36 | -7.31 | -7.73 | -8.18 | -8.65 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -2.47 | -10.22 | 33.50 | 6.47 | 0.14 | 7.22 | 7.63 | 8.07 | 8.54 |
| Capital Expenditure | -13.34 | -17.39 | -17.50 | -9.15 | -28.94 | -20.41 | -21.58 | -22.82 | -24.13 | -25.52 |
| UFCF | 29.67 | 16.55 | 43.67 | 9.34 | -50.12 | 41.32 | 17.40 | 18.40 | 19.45 | 20.57 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 38.13 | 14.81 | 14.46 | 14.11 | 13.76 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 95.27 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.37 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 20.98 |
| Terminal Value | 329.42 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 220.39 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 315.66 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 5.75 |
| Equity Value | 309.91 |
| Shares Outstanding | 11.42 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 27.14 |