Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Merit Medical Systems, Inc. (MMSI)
$67.97
+0.64 (+0.95%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 882.75 | 994.85 | 963.88 | 1,074.75 | 1,150.98 | 1,232.07 | 1,318.87 | 1,411.79 | 1,511.26 | 1,617.73 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 60.48 | 38.65 | 44.24 | 172.44 | 194.67 | 118.98 | 127.36 | 136.33 | 145.94 | 156.22 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -9.06 | -65.71 | -62.58 | 76.66 | 102.47 | 4.71 | 5.04 | 5.40 | 5.78 | 6.19 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 69.55 | 104.36 | 106.82 | 95.78 | 92.20 | 114.27 | 122.32 | 130.94 | 140.16 | 150.04 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 67.36 | 44.32 | 56.92 | 67.75 | 58.41 | 72.37 | 77.47 | 82.93 | 88.77 | 95.02 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 149.99 | 168.53 | 157.96 | 172.84 | 178.45 | 201.83 | 216.05 | 231.27 | 247.56 | 265 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 197.54 | 225.70 | 198.02 | 221.92 | 265.99 | 269.49 | 288.48 | 308.81 | 330.56 | 353.85 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 54.02 | 54.62 | 49.84 | 55.62 | 68.50 | 68.77 | 73.62 | 78.80 | 84.35 | 90.30 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -66.34 | -81.50 | -49.28 | -27.94 | -45.03 | -67.35 | -72.09 | -77.17 | -82.61 | -88.43 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 67.97 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.964 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 57.67 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 9.82 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.13% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.178 |
| Total Debt | 268.75 |
| Total Equity | 3,919.90 |
| Total Capital | 4,188.65 |
| Debt Weighting | 6.42 |
| Equity Weighting | 93.58 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 882.75 | 994.85 | 963.88 | 1,074.75 | 1,150.98 | 1,232.07 | 1,318.87 | 1,411.79 | 1,511.26 | 1,617.73 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 60.48 | 38.65 | 44.24 | 172.44 | 194.67 | 118.98 | 127.36 | 136.33 | 145.94 | 156.22 |
| EBIT | -9.06 | -65.71 | -62.58 | 76.66 | 102.47 | 4.71 | 5.04 | 5.40 | 5.78 | 6.19 |
| Tax Rate | 15.15% | -148.56% | 25.61% | 10.13% | 9.82% | -17.57% | -17.57% | -17.57% | -17.57% | -17.57% |
| EBIAT | -7.69 | -163.32 | -46.55 | 68.89 | 92.41 | 5.54 | 5.93 | 6.35 | 6.79 | 7.27 |
| Depreciation | 69.55 | 104.36 | 106.82 | 95.78 | 92.20 | 114.27 | 122.32 | 130.94 | 140.16 | 150.04 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -18.55 | 10.57 | -14.88 | -5.61 | -23.38 | -14.22 | -15.22 | -16.29 | -17.44 |
| Inventories | - | -28.16 | 27.68 | -23.90 | -44.07 | -3.50 | -18.99 | -20.32 | -21.76 | -23.29 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 0.60 | -4.79 | 5.79 | 12.88 | 0.27 | 4.85 | 5.19 | 5.55 | 5.94 |
| Capital Expenditure | -66.34 | -81.50 | -49.28 | -27.94 | -45.03 | -67.35 | -72.09 | -77.17 | -82.61 | -88.43 |
| UFCF | -4.48 | -186.57 | 44.45 | 103.74 | 102.78 | 25.84 | 27.80 | 29.75 | 31.85 | 34.09 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 23.77 | 23.51 | 23.15 | 22.79 | 22.44 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 115.65 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.73 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 34.78 |
| Terminal Value | 516.73 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 340.03 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 455.68 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 210.34 |
| Equity Value | 245.34 |
| Shares Outstanding | 57.67 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 4.25 |