Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Model N, Inc. (MODN)
$22.74
-0.63 (-2.70%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Revenue | 141.24 | 161.06 | 193.44 | 219.16 | 249.46 | 287.67 | 331.73 | 382.54 | 441.13 | 508.69 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -8.54 | -1.03 | -6.65 | -3.41 | 13.24 | -3.67 | -4.23 | -4.88 | -5.62 | -6.48 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -15.33 | -6.53 | -14.62 | -12.40 | 5.02 | -15.02 | -17.33 | -19.98 | -23.04 | -26.57 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 6.79 | 5.50 | 7.97 | 8.99 | 8.22 | 11.36 | 13.10 | 15.10 | 17.42 | 20.09 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Total Cash | 60.78 | 200.49 | 165.47 | 193.52 | 301.36 | 265.90 | 306.63 | 353.59 | 407.74 | 470.20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 26.95 | 35.80 | 43.19 | 49.12 | 61.76 | 63.75 | 73.51 | 84.77 | 97.76 | 112.73 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 2.78 | 2.80 | 5.24 | 6.38 | 6.01 | 6.75 | 7.78 | 8.97 | 10.35 | 11.93 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 2.30 | 3.01 | 4.80 | 5.82 | 3.89 | 5.87 | 6.76 | 7.80 | 8.99 | 10.37 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -0.28 | -0.58 | -1.06 | -0.99 | -0.45 | -1 | -1.15 | -1.33 | -1.53 | -1.77 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 22.74 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.712 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 38.08 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -9.15 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.11% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 7.471 |
| Total Debt | 291.52 |
| Total Equity | 865.96 |
| Total Capital | 1,157.48 |
| Debt Weighting | 25.19 |
| Equity Weighting | 74.81 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Revenue | 141.24 | 161.06 | 193.44 | 219.16 | 249.46 | 287.67 | 331.73 | 382.54 | 441.13 | 508.69 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -8.54 | -1.03 | -6.65 | -3.41 | 13.24 | -3.67 | -4.23 | -4.88 | -5.62 | -6.48 |
| EBIT | -15.33 | -6.53 | -14.62 | -12.40 | 5.02 | -15.02 | -17.33 | -19.98 | -23.04 | -26.57 |
| Tax Rate | -5.64% | -6.32% | -2.65% | -5.43% | -9.15% | -5.84% | -5.84% | -5.84% | -5.84% | -5.84% |
| EBIAT | -16.19 | -6.94 | -15.01 | -13.07 | 5.48 | -15.90 | -18.34 | -21.15 | -24.38 | -28.12 |
| Depreciation | 6.79 | 5.50 | 7.97 | 8.99 | 8.22 | 11.36 | 13.10 | 15.10 | 17.42 | 20.09 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -8.84 | -7.39 | -5.94 | -12.64 | -1.99 | -9.76 | -11.26 | -12.98 | -14.97 |
| Inventories | - | -0.02 | -2.44 | -1.14 | 0.36 | -0.73 | -1.03 | -1.19 | -1.37 | -1.58 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 0.71 | 1.79 | 1.02 | -1.93 | 1.98 | 0.90 | 1.04 | 1.19 | 1.38 |
| Capital Expenditure | -0.28 | -0.58 | -1.05 | -0.99 | -0.45 | -1 | -1.15 | -1.33 | -1.53 | -1.77 |
| UFCF | -9.68 | -10.18 | -16.13 | -11.13 | -0.96 | -6.29 | -16.29 | -18.79 | -21.66 | -24.98 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -5.90 | -14.33 | -15.50 | -16.76 | -18.13 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -70.62 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 6.62 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -25.48 |
| Terminal Value | -551.51 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -400.27 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -470.89 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -9.83 |
| Equity Value | -461.06 |
| Shares Outstanding | 38.08 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -12.11 |