Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Model N, Inc. (MODN)

$38.69

+0.18 (+0.47%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -9.89 | 38.69 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 154.63141.24161.06193.45219.16240.41263.71289.28317.32348.08
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -11.76-8.54-1.03-6.65-3.41-9.27-10.17-11.16-12.24-13.42
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -20.06-15.33-6.53-14.62-12.40-19.76-21.67-23.78-26.08-28.61
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 8.306.795.507.978.9910.4911.5012.6213.8415.18
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 56.7060.78200.49165.47193.52181.76199.38218.71239.91263.17
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 28.2726.9535.8043.1949.1250.1655.0360.3666.2172.63
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1.662.303.014.806.424.805.275.786.346.95
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -0.25-0.28-0.58-1.06-0.99-0.83-0.91-0.99-1.09-1.20
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 38.69
Beta 0.625
Diluted Shares Outstanding 36.74
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -5.43
After-tax Cost of Debt 9.70%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.461
Total Debt 152.21
Total Equity 1,421.63
Total Capital 1,573.84
Debt Weighting 9.67
Equity Weighting 90.33
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 154.63141.24161.06193.45219.16240.41263.71289.28317.32348.08
EBITDA -11.76-8.54-1.03-6.65-3.41-9.27-10.17-11.16-12.24-13.42
EBIT -20.06-15.33-6.53-14.62-12.40-19.76-21.67-23.78-26.08-28.61
Tax Rate 0.10%-5.64%-6.32%-2.65%-5.43%-3.99%-3.99%-3.99%-3.99%-3.99%
EBIAT -20.04-16.19-6.94-15.01-13.07-20.55-22.54-24.72-27.12-29.75
Depreciation 8.306.795.507.978.9910.4911.5012.6213.8415.18
Accounts Receivable -1.32-8.84-7.39-5.94-1.04-4.86-5.33-5.85-6.42
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -0.640.711.791.62-1.620.470.510.560.61
Capital Expenditure -0.25-0.28-0.58-1.05-0.99-0.83-0.91-0.99-1.09-1.20
UFCF -11.99-7.73-10.16-13.69-9.39-13.55-16.34-17.92-19.66-21.57
WACC
PV UFCF -12.69-14.33-14.73-15.13-15.54
SUM PV UFCF -72.42

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.77
Free cash flow (t + 1) -22
Terminal Value -461.18
Present Value of Terminal Value -332.37

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -404.79
Net Debt -41.31
Equity Value -363.48
Shares Outstanding 36.74
Equity Value Per Share -9.89