Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Model N, Inc. (MODN)

$34.23

+1.02 (+3.07%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -14.62 | 34.23 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 131.17154.63141.24161.06193.45214.42237.67263.43292323.65
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -30.49-11.76-8.54-1.03-6.65-17.57-19.48-21.59-23.93-26.52
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -38.67-20.06-15.33-6.53-14.62-27.84-30.86-34.21-37.91-42.02
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 8.188.306.795.507.9710.2711.3812.6213.9915.50
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 57.5656.7060.78200.49165.47143.06158.57175.77194.82215.95
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 24.7828.2726.9535.8043.1943.2347.9253.1158.8765.26
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 31.662.303.014.804.014.444.925.466.05
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -0.73-0.25-0.28-0.58-1.06-0.78-0.87-0.96-1.06-1.18
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 34.23
Beta 0.750
Diluted Shares Outstanding 35.46
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -2.65
After-tax Cost of Debt 9.82%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.345
Total Debt 146.06
Total Equity 1,213.83
Total Capital 1,359.89
Debt Weighting 10.74
Equity Weighting 89.26
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 131.17154.63141.24161.06193.45214.42237.67263.43292323.65
EBITDA -30.49-11.76-8.54-1.03-6.65-17.57-19.48-21.59-23.93-26.52
EBIT -38.67-20.06-15.33-6.53-14.62-27.84-30.86-34.21-37.91-42.02
Tax Rate 7.67%0.10%-5.64%-6.32%-2.65%-1.37%-1.37%-1.37%-1.37%-1.37%
EBIAT -35.71-20.04-16.19-6.94-15.01-28.22-31.28-34.67-38.43-42.60
Depreciation 8.188.306.795.507.9710.2711.3812.6213.9915.50
Accounts Receivable --3.491.32-8.84-7.39-0.05-4.69-5.20-5.76-6.38
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable --1.340.640.711.79-0.790.430.480.530.59
Capital Expenditure -0.73-0.25-0.28-0.58-1.05-0.78-0.87-0.96-1.06-1.18
UFCF -28.25-16.82-7.73-10.16-13.69-19.57-25.02-27.73-30.74-34.07
WACC
PV UFCF -18.19-21.60-22.25-22.92-23.61
SUM PV UFCF -108.58

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.61
Free cash flow (t + 1) -34.75
Terminal Value -619.41
Present Value of Terminal Value -429.26

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -537.83
Net Debt -19.41
Equity Value -518.42
Shares Outstanding 35.46
Equity Value Per Share -14.62